Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

888 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank

Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank

The post Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Lior Goldenberg Demonstrates How Tokenized Markets Empower Early-Stage Builders at SBC Web3 District Academy At this year’s SBC Summit, Lior Goldenberg, solo founder of ProductClank, delivered a compelling session at the Web3 District Academy, showing how Web3 token markets can enable real growth for solo founders and bootstrapped teams. His presentation, “The Future of Venture Building: How Internet Capital Markets Solve Funding & Distribution,” illustrated how tokenized speculation can provide community, funding, and distribution without relying on traditional venture capital. “ProductClank is the pure spirit of Web3, empowering early-stage founders with decentralized, accessible growth.” — Ahmed Refaie, Founder of DSRPTD.net Goldenberg, formerly Head of Platform at Collider Venture, launched ProductClank as a fully bootstrapped operation. The platform leverages tokenized speculation as a distribution engine, turning early supporters into active participants and generating viral engagement from day zero. “AI has made building products easier than ever, but distribution has never been harder,” Goldenberg explained. “With tokenized speculation, builders can reach audiences, raise funds, and maintain control of their vision, all at once.” Key traction for ProductClank includes: 500+ daily active users on its Farcaster miniapp 30,000+ token holders supporting the ecosystem $100K+ raised through token-driven engagement Over 100,000 miniapp sessions Grants from Coinbase and a six-figure ecosystem token grant Web3 Mechanics Driving Builder Success ProductClank integrates with Farcaster and operates on Base, giving builders the tools to: Launch fair token sales at the earliest stages Build engaged communities from day one Generate revenue through token trading fees Validate products with speculation-driven feedback By applying a prediction-market mindset to startups, the platform aligns incentives for builders, speculators, and community influencers, creating a positive-sum growth ecosystem. SBC Web3 District Academy Connection Goldenberg’s presentation aligns closely with the Web3 District Academy’s mission: connecting builders with the Web3 ecosystem. Just as the Academy empowers early-stage…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps

New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps

The post New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets made a significant appearance in the spotlight in September, with monthly volume more than doubling to $4.28 billion, while memecoin trading on Solana cooled. The question now circling crypto’s risk-taking corners is whether these markets are becoming the new trenches for degens hunting edge and adrenaline. Prediction markets rise Across the prediction market category, turnover jumped 126.3% in September, compared to August’s $1.89 billion. According to data from a Dune dashboard and DefiLlama, the baton of dominance passed decisively to Kalshi, which surged from $874.38 million in August to $2.74 billion in September. The 214% leap translated into roughly 64% market share for the month. Polymarket, long the bellwether, also experienced significant growth. The platform experienced a 41.4% increase in monthly trading volume, reaching $1.42 billion. Yet, ceded the top slot with about a 33% share. The difference is stark compared to the other top two prediction markets by monthly volume. Limitless exploded to $102.72 million from $4.98 million (+1,962%), while Myriad rose to $4.44 million (+61.3%). Despite the market share contrast, the four helped prediction markets post their strongest month on record. The sector’s participation can also see the growth of prediction markets in mainstream culture. A Sept. 24 episode on South Park featured prediction markets as the main topic, name-dropping Kalshi and Polymarket. Brand new trenches? The rotation matters because the other favored arena for high-beta speculation lost steam. Solana memecoin trading slumped 38% month over month to $19 billion in September, down from nearly $31 billion in August, according to Blockworks data. However, even after the pullback, the memecoin complex still dwarfs prediction markets. September memecoin volume on Solana was over four times larger, meaning prediction markets represented roughly 22% of that activity. Traders craving fast-moving, binary payoffs may increasingly find them in election odds,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

The post Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A view of the U.S. Capitol is seen at sunset on September 30, 2025, in Washington, DC. Mehmet Eser | Afp | Getty Images Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, between October 3–5. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The full shutdown began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded. It sets the stage for the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key programs and services. The length of a government closure matters as a longer-than-normal stoppage could weigh on an already fragile economy and put pressure on a stock market near record highs. Government shutdowns on average last about 14 days, based on data from Bank of America going back to 1990. And while the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% increase during these events, a prolonged closure this time could rattle markets. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/prediction-markets-see-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-two-weeks.html

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’

Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’

The post Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Insights: Prediction markets represented 55% of weekly trading activity of Solana memecoins between Sept. 22-28. Kalshi dominated with $854.7 million in weekly volume, surpassing its November 2024 US election week peak. Solana memecoins registered $2.8 billion in trading volume, the smallest since early September 2024. Prediction markets registered $1.54 billion in trading volume between Sept. 22 and 28, narrowing the gap with Solana memecoins. The four leading prediction market platforms captured 55% of the weekly trading activity compared to memecoins on Solana, according to data shared by X user MovieTime on Sept. 29. Solana memecoins registered $2.8 billion in trading volume for the same period, the smallest volume since early September 2024, according to Blockworks data. Solana Memecoins In Focus as Prediction Markets Grow Amid the Solana memecoins hype, Kalshi dominated weekly volumes with $854.7 million, its all-time high in weekly volume, according to data from DefiLlama. The figure surpassed the previous peak of $750 million seen during the US election week of Nov. 4 and 10. Kalshi’s Weekly Trading Volume Since Nov. 4 | Source: DefiLlama Data from DefiLlama showed that Polymarket registered $355.6 million in weekly volume, the second-best week since the last week of December 2024, bested only by the previous week of Sept. 15 and 21. Together, Polymarket and Kalshi accounted for 78.6% of the prediction market’s weekly trading volume. MovieTime assessed the movement: “Truth capital markets. More capital in these markets makes it more accurate. When we get more volume, then we get bigger players. Which causes more volume. positive feedback loop. I think prediction markets are here to stay.” Starting the week of Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, prediction markets generated more volume Solana memecoins on Sept. 29, according to data shared by Kalshi’s growth team member, ultra. Solana Memecoins Activity since January…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

The post Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Popular trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) is planning to expand its prediction markets product, which allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on future outcomes, beyond the U.S. and into global markets, the company told Bloomberg. Robinhood sees international demand growing, especially in Europe and the UK. JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at the company, said users abroad have shown particular interest in this new form of trading. “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go,” Mackenzie told Bloomberg. To that end, Robinhood has begun discussions with overseas regulators, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, to explore how a localized version of the product could be structured, he said. The move follows its recent partnership with blockchain-based and CFTC-regulated Kalshi, which lets users bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic data releases or geopolitical developments. Rise of prediction market The push into prediction markets comes amid a surge of interest in event-based trading, sparked in part by the rise of crypto-native platform Polymarket. That platform has processed billions of dollars in wagers in 2024, largely tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The platform became so popular that Polymarket was recently reported to be weighing a potential deal that valued the company at $9 billion, a sharp climb from its $1 billion valuation just a few months ago. While Polymarket rose to fame, the market was somewhat constricted. Now, with Robinhood’s U.S. and potentially global offerings, it might open up the prediction market to a larger group of traders. CoinDesk has reached out to Robinhood for comments. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/robinhood-eyes-global-expansion-of-prediction-markets-after-u-s-debut-bloomberg

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S.

Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S.

The post Robinhood Plans Offshore Prediction Markets Outside U.S. appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Robinhood exploring offshore prediction markets outside U.S. amid crypto trends. Strategy aims for compliance and growth opportunities. No official comments from Robinhood’s CEO yet on the development. Robinhood contemplates launching offshore prediction markets outside the U.S., reflecting its strategic expansion into global, compliant fintech innovation, as reported by ChainCatcher and Bloomberg. This initiative could reshape global tokenized finance, leveraging Robinhood’s user base, potentially enhancing revenue and compliance despite minimal direct market reactions or social media commentary. Robinhood’s Strategic Offshore Expansion and Potential Growth Robinhood’s planned entry into offshore prediction markets highlights its attempt to expand its financial product offerings. The initiative, aligned with global trends, involves creating tokenized finance products outside U.S. jurisdiction. CEO Vlad Tenev has guided Robinhood strategically through this phase, although no official statements have been released yet about this specific plan. The potential changes from this initiative could include a significant increase in Robinhood’s revenue mix from crypto trading. Currently accounting for 43% of its transaction-based revenue, expansion into offshore markets might raise its leverage. This may lead to exceeding 50% in total trading revenue if adopted widely in Europe. The launch could drive user and trading activity, accelerating overall market growth. Market reactions are keenly positive, with community forums expressing enthusiasm about diversified access and on-chain instrument availability in European and other markets. The focus remains on the company’s potential to grow its transaction-based revenue significantly. However, no statements have emerged yet from regulatory bodies like the SEC or CFTC about Robinhood’s new offshore plans. Community Anticipates Benefits of New Offshore Products Did you know? In 2024, Polymarket outpaced traditional polling in accuracy for U.S. elections, indicating a shift towards predictive market authority. Ethereum (ETH) is currently valued at $4,143.35, with a market cap of $500.12 billion, showing a 60-day increase of 13.95%…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch

Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch

The post Report: Robinhood Explores Overseas Prediction Markets Launch appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood is reportedly taking its prediction markets global, betting that the world is just as eager to wager on everything from elections to sports. Not content with just disrupting domestic investing, Robinhood is now taking its prediction markets global, according to a recent Bloomberg report. The move aims to capitalize on soaring international demand for […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/report-robinhood-explores-overseas-prediction-markets-launch/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets

Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets

The post Robinhood weighs global rollout of prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood Markets Inc. is in discussions with overseas regulators about expanding its fast-growing prediction markets business outside the United States. In coverage initially published by Bloomberg, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president of futures and international, said the firm has held talks with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on how such contracts would be treated under local law. In the US, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as swap products, while in Europe they are often classified as gambling. “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go,” said Mackenzie. The brokerage entered the UK and European Union in late 2023, primarily offering equities and cryptocurrency trading. Its push into prediction markets builds on partnerships with CFTC-approved venues like Kalshi and ForecastEx, which let users speculate on outcomes ranging from elections to sports. CEO Vlad Tenev said on Tuesday that Robinhood had facilitated more than 4 billion event contracts, with over 2 billion traded in the third quarter alone. Shares rose more than 12% following the disclosure. This is a developing story. This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor Jeffrey Albus before publication. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Source: https://blockworks.co/news/robinhood-global-prediction-markets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure

Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure

The post Talus Labs secures over $10M for AI agents and prediction markets infrastructure appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Talus Labs raised over $10 million led by Polychain Capital, with participation from Sui Foundation and Walrus Protocol. The startup is building PredictionAI, merging AI agents with prediction markets to create a novel infrastructure. Talus Labs, a blockchain infrastructure firm pioneering PredictionAI by fusing AI agents with prediction markets, secured over $10 million in funding led by Polychain Capital today. The round included strategic investments from Sui Foundation and Walrus Protocol to develop AI agent infrastructure. The company’s Nexus Framework utilizes the Sui Network for global coordination and Walrus Protocol for transparent data layers, enabling fair AI agent competitions. Talus Labs operates a testnet through its flagship platform Idol.fun. The funding positions Talus Labs to launch AvA Markets on mainnet in Q1 2026. AvA Markets represents the company’s innovation where AI agents compete in provably fair environments, with users betting on results. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/talus-labs-raises-10m-for-ai-agent-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

The post Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A stop sign is seen at a security checkpoint at the US Capitol in Washington, DC on March 24, 2019. Andrew Caballero-reynolds | Afp | Getty Images Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government will shut down on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep agencies funded. Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets on a government closure after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in case of a shutdown. Over the weekend, the odds were at around 50%. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The elevated odds underscore deepening dysfunction in Congress, where disputes over spending levels escalated. While Democrats want the funding bill to include extensions to Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, Republican leaders are saying that debate should wait until after a shutdown is averted. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the top four congressional leaders Monday after abruptly canceling a meeting with Democratic leadership last week. The Trump administration last week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass firings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent. In past shutdowns, federal employees have been furloughed but not permanently laid off. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/odds-of-a-government-shutdown-rise-to-70percent-in-prediction-markets.html

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews