Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

911 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Crypto Ally Leads Fed Race as Trump Signals Major Shift

Crypto Ally Leads Fed Race as Trump Signals Major Shift

The post Crypto Ally Leads Fed Race as Trump Signals Major Shift appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kevin Hassett, a former Coinbase advisor who holds over $1 million in COIN stock, leads the Federal Reserve Chair race with a 56% nomination probability on prediction markets. As Trump’s criticism of Jerome Powell grows, final interviews are underway through Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Sponsored Sponsored Hassett Emerges as Frontrunner Amid Volatile Prediction Markets Kalshi prediction markets currently give Kevin Hassett a 55% chance of nomination for the role of Federal Reserve Chair. This represents a 15% increase in the last 24 hours, placing him well above Christopher Waller (20%) and Kevin Warsh (15%). Fed Chair Predictions. Source: Kalshi As the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Hassett is known for advocating rate cuts and maintaining direct ties to the crypto industry. Kevin Hassett is now the leading candidate for Fed chair, he has recently backed a 50 basis point cut in December. The 10-year Treasury yield is already below 4%, reflecting growing market confidence. Looking forward, I believe the 10-year could drop further, targeting the 3% to… — Steve Grasso (@grassosteve) November 25, 2025 Coinbase officially announced its Global Advisory Council in late November 2025, confirming Hassett’s position. The Council helps guide the company’s engagement with global regulators, illustrating the growing relationship between crypto firms and policymakers. As a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Hassett has promoted a more accommodative monetary policy through 2024 and 2025. Therefore, his strong pro-rate cut approach sets him apart from the hawkish stance under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sponsored Sponsored However, Hassett’s experience as a Coinbase advisor and his substantial holdings of COIN stock create a direct link to the crypto sector. This raises both concerns about potential conflicts of interest and hopes for a shift in the Fed’s approach to digital assets. Meanwhile, President Trump has amplified…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026

Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026

The post Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Robinhood’s prediction market expansion, futures exchange launch, and MIAXdx acquisition. Launch of derivatives exchange in 2026. Robinhood’s prediction markets generate $100M annually in under one year. Robinhood has announced its prediction market, a key growth area since March, is driving plans for a futures and derivatives exchange, marking significant expansion in financial tech services. This expansion reflects Robinhood’s financial success and strategic growth, impacting its market position and influencing broader crypto trading activities, particularly in ETH and BTC transactions. Robinhood Reaches Nine Billion Contracts Milestone with Kalshi Robinhood, in partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi, reported over nine billion contracts traded by one million users since March. As demand grows, Robinhood plans to launch a futures and derivatives exchange in 2026, acquiring MIAXdx for strengthened infrastructure. Robinhood’s expansion includes establishing a derivatives clearinghouse, reflecting its ambition to cement a stronger presence in the market. The derivatives exchange aims to deepen Robinhood’s presence in the prediction market with Susquehanna International Group as the initial liquidity provider. Coincu’s research indicates that Robinhood’s expansion initiatives could prompt broader financial participation. The infrastructure build-up and focus on regulatory compliance illustrate a shift towards a comprehensive financial ecosystem. This strategy may position Robinhood as a key player in market innovation, offering diversified financial products to a growing user base. “Prediction markets are on fire,” Vlad Tenev, Robinhood’s CEO, emphasized, highlighting their rapid growth. The prediction markets have become the company’s fastest-growing revenue stream, generating $100 million annually. Vlad Tenev also noted record transaction volumes and user engagement, as Robinhood attracted 2.5 million new funded customers over the past year. Contract Volume Doubles Quarterly, Driving Financial Engagement Did you know? Robinhood’s venture into prediction markets saw contract volume doubling every quarter since its launch, solidifying its rapid growth trajectory in fintech sectors. Ethereum(ETH),…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown On Kalshi

Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown On Kalshi

The post Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown On Kalshi appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The cryptocurrency world faces another regulatory earthquake as a Nevada federal court delivers a stunning blow to decentralized prediction markets, allowing state authorities to pursue enforcement against platform Kalshi and potentially reshaping how these innovative markets operate across the United States. What Does This Prediction Market Ruling Mean for Crypto? A federal court in Nevada has removed crucial protection for prediction market platforms, lifting the temporary injunction that Kalshi had previously secured. This decision empowers state regulators to take direct enforcement action against the platform. The ruling fundamentally challenges how prediction markets have operated under federal exemptions, creating immediate uncertainty for the entire sector. Why Nevada’s Prediction Market Crackdown Matters Nevada regulators initially issued a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi in March, warning of both civil and criminal penalties. The state alleged multiple legal violations, particularly focusing on how these platforms handle sports-related contracts. The court’s latest decision validates Nevada’s position, suggesting that prediction market platforms cannot automatically claim federal protection from state oversight. The legal battle centers on a critical distinction: whether prediction market contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The court determined they do not, meaning platforms like Kalshi lose their exemption from state regulation. This interpretation could affect every prediction market operating in the United States. How This Prediction Market Decision Changes Everything Previously, prediction market platforms registered as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) enjoyed federal protection from state-level interference. This new ruling dismantles that protection, potentially exposing platforms to: Multiple state enforcement actions Varying regulatory requirements across jurisdictions Increased compliance costs Potential operational restrictions The decision creates immediate challenges for the prediction market industry, which must now navigate a patchwork of state regulations rather than relying on unified federal oversight. What’s Next for Prediction Market Platforms? This ruling represents a significant shift in how authorities…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
CFTC Opens Nominations for CEO Council on Digital Assets

CFTC Opens Nominations for CEO Council on Digital Assets

The post CFTC Opens Nominations for CEO Council on Digital Assets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Pham is currently the sole commissioner at the CFTC, and said the council will build on previous crypto initiatives to support the CFTC’s expanding mandate. The effort comes as her likely successor, SEC official Michael Selig, awaits a Senate vote. In recent testimony, Selig placed a lot of emphasis on the need for stronger federal oversight of spot digital asset markets and a more diverse, fully staffed CFTC leadership. Pham Pushes New CEO Council Acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham opened nominations for CEOs to serve on a newly proposed “CEO Innovation Council.” The goal of this body will be to help shape future policy discussions, including those related to digital assets and prediction markets, as the agency prepares for an expanded mandate. In a notice that was published Tuesday, Pham invited submissions until Dec. 8. Pham framed the initiative as a continuation of the agency’s previous digital asset efforts, including its “Crypto Sprint” program, a dedicated industry forum, and its ongoing involvement in congressional work around a comprehensive market structure bill. According to her, the new council is intended to help the CFTC “hit the ground running” as it tackles an expanded mission, ensuring markets stay “vibrant and resilient” while still maintaining strong protections for participants.  She explained that tapping experts and builders directly from the industry is very essential while the CFTC broadens its oversight of crypto markets and emerging prediction-market products. The timing of the council’s formation is still uncertain, especially given the CFTC’s unusual leadership vacuum. Pham has been serving as the sole commissioner for months, and her tenure may soon end. SEC official Michael Selig has been nominated to become the Senate-confirmed chair of the CFTC, and his appointment is expected to advance to a floor vote once lawmakers return to Washington, DC after the Thanksgiving…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Market Shock: Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown on Kalshi

Prediction Market Shock: Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown on Kalshi

BitcoinWorld Prediction Market Shock: Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown on Kalshi The cryptocurrency world faces another regulatory earthquake as a Nevada federal court delivers a stunning blow to decentralized prediction markets, allowing state authorities to pursue enforcement against platform Kalshi and potentially reshaping how these innovative markets operate across the United States. What Does This Prediction Market Ruling Mean for Crypto? A federal court in Nevada […] This post Prediction Market Shock: Nevada Court Greenlights State Crackdown on Kalshi first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Author: bitcoinworld
Robinhood to launch new derivatives exchange for prediction markets push

Robinhood to launch new derivatives exchange for prediction markets push

Robinhood is deepening its foray into prediction markets with plans to launch a derivatives exchange through a new JV with Susquehanna.

Author: The Block
Galaxy Digital Eyes Bigger Role in Prediction Markets

Galaxy Digital Eyes Bigger Role in Prediction Markets

Galaxy Digital is in talks with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to provide liquidity as a market maker, seeking to expand its role in the growing, event-based trading sector. The post Galaxy Digital Eyes Bigger Role in Prediction Markets appeared first on Crypto News Australia.

Author: Cryptonews AU
Story Protocol Surges 21% on New Prediction Markets and Privacy Upgrade

Story Protocol Surges 21% on New Prediction Markets and Privacy Upgrade

The post Story Protocol Surges 21% on New Prediction Markets and Privacy Upgrade appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Story Protocol’s native token soared 21.48% to $2.98 in 24 hours as the blockchain introduced its first prediction markets and launched Confidential Data Rails. This privacy-focused upgrade secures encrypted data on-chain. The surge mirrors multiple feature rollouts and rising institutional attention, positioning the Layer 1 blockchain as a critical driver in the growing $80 trillion intellectual property economy. Sponsored Price Jumps with New Features and Market Momentum As of 2:00 am UTC on Wednesday, Story Protocol’s IP token traded at $2.98—a 21.48% increase over the previous day. The token saw $145.63 million in trading volume across leading exchanges. Its market cap reached $975.42 million, placing it #104 among global cryptocurrencies. Story hit an all-time high of $14.78 on Sept. 21, 2025, and has traded between $1.00 and $14.78 since. Institutional confidence is rising as publicly traded IP Strategy (Nasdaq: IPST) holds 53 million tokens on its balance sheet. These tokens are valued at about $731 million. Source: BeInCrypto The price rally arrived alongside three major launches: Story’s first prediction markets, integration with Dune Analytics for on-chain data, and a technical paper outlining Confidential Data Rails. These updates expand Story’s capabilities beyond IP registration, demonstrating it can support a broader range of decentralized applications. Story Protocol Debuts On-Chain Prediction Markets Story Protocol unveiled its first prediction markets with MusicByVirtuals, allowing users to trade on outcomes linked to cultural and financial events. These markets enable bets on topics like K-pop chart positions and cryptocurrency prices, with settlements processed on Story’s blockchain. Sponsored These markets highlight how cultural trends and financial predictions can be tokenized and traded on-chain, showcasing Story’s versatility beyond IP management. It underscores Story’s aim to capture both IP ownership and the speculation surrounding cultural assets. Confidential Data Rails: Privacy Upgrade for On-Chain Assets Last Thursday, Story Protocol released its…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Bank Of America Warns Of New Credit Risks With Gambling, Prediction Markets

Bank Of America Warns Of New Credit Risks With Gambling, Prediction Markets

The post Bank Of America Warns Of New Credit Risks With Gambling, Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Topline Booming prediction markets and sports gambling products are creating new credit risks for Americans, according to Bank of America, which warned about particularly high impacts on young men and low-income lenders. Prediction markets like Kalshi have exploded in popularity. Photo by Kayla Wolf for The Washington Post via Getty Images Key Facts A note from Bank of America Global Research identified, “easy access and gamified interfaces” as factors encouraging frequent and impulsive wagers, “which can lead to overextension of credit and rising loan defaults.” The note characterized the boom of prediction and betting markets as a “convergence of entertainment and speculative finance,” saying it indicates risks that could impact consumers’ credit qualities, raise delinquencies and affect earnings for issuers and subprime lenders. Credit scores fall by an average of 2.75 points when online and mobile phone sports gambling is available, according to Bank of America, which noted low-income consumers and young men are particularly susceptible to the gambling credit risks. Subprime borrowers have a higher potential for revolving debt spikes, accelerated defaults and higher charge-off rates, the note said. Young men, especially those in low-income areas, “could exhibit limited financial literacy and constrained liquidity making them highly susceptible to compulsive wagering and credit stress,” the note said, adding promotional incentives and social media marketing of gambling sites could increase participation and result in heightened credit balances. Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here. Big Number $99 billion. That is how much money worth of legal wagers were placed in the first eight months of this year, according to the American Gaming Association, a 12.4% increase year-over-year. Read More Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2025/11/25/sports-gambling-prediction-markets-could-lead-to-new-credit-risks-for-young-men-and-low-earners-bank-warns/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Galaxy Digital Explores Polymarket, Kalshi Partnerships as Liquidity Provider: Report

Galaxy Digital Explores Polymarket, Kalshi Partnerships as Liquidity Provider: Report

The post Galaxy Digital Explores Polymarket, Kalshi Partnerships as Liquidity Provider: Report appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Galaxy Digital explores market-making partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi platforms. Novogratz confirms firm testing small-scale liquidity provision on prediction markets. Institutional traders enter prediction space as regulatory barriers decline over time. Galaxy Digital is exploring partnerships with prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi to serve as a liquidity provider, according to a Bloomberg report. The firm’s CEO, Mike Novogratz, confirmed the company is testing market-making operations in the sector. Novogratz told media that Galaxy Digital is currently conducting small-scale experiments with market-making on prediction platforms. He added that the firm plans to eventually provide liquidity across these markets at a larger scale. Galaxy Tests Market-Making Infrastructure The investment management firm would step in to buy and sell prediction contracts, adding market depth similar to its operations on crypto exchanges. This approach could help reduce costs for users by tightening spreads and improving order execution. Prediction markets allow users to trade yes or no contracts, with prices showing the probability of specific outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi have processed approximately $42.4 billion in combined trading volume across their platforms. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in monthly volume since September. The CFTC-regulated platform gained ground after Polymarket was ordered to withdraw from the U.S. market in 2022. However, Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX earlier this year enabled its return to American users. Institutional Firms Enter Prediction Market Space The lack of arbitrage traders in prediction markets has created price gaps between platforms. Contracts for Kevin Hasset to become Federal Reserve Chair currently trade at $0.35 on Kalshi and $0.14 on Polymarket, according to recent data. Kalshi brought on Susquehanna as its first major institutional market maker in 2024. Bloomberg also reported that Jump Trading began providing liquidity for the platform earlier this month. These firms previously helped establish infrastructure for crypto market liquidity before 2016.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews