Bitcoin Tests Multi-Month Floor as Pantera CEO Forecasts Long-Term Superiority Over Gold

Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of significant technical turbulence, trading near its lowest levels in over a year as the market digests a sharp 40% correction from its 2025 all-time high.

After failing to sustain momentum in the mid-$80,000 range earlier this quarter, price action has shifted into a decisive breakdown phase, retesting the structural support established during late 2024.

As of February 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $76,500, following a volatile session that saw a brief dip to a new yearly low around $73,000. This area represents a vital structural pivot; the market is currently searching for stability as it attempts to reclaim the psychological $80,000 handle.

Short-Term Price Action and Support

The immediate price action remains heavily weighted toward the downside, with Bitcoin currently trapped below major short-term moving averages. A sharp liquidation event over the last 48 hours saw the market breach the $80,000 level, which has now transitioned into a formidable resistance zone.

• Immediate Resistance: Selling pressure is concentrated at $80,000 and the Inducement Liquidity (ILQ) level at $82,033.
• Key Support Levels: The $74,000–$74,500 region is acting as the primary line of defense. A failure here brings the weekly support level of $71,280 into focus.
• Volume & Behavior: Momentum is characterized by a “squeeze” attempt as buyers defend the $73,000 zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is at 39, indicating that while bearish momentum is active, the asset is approaching an oversold state.

Institutional Perspective and Macro Thesis

Despite the prevailing technical weakness, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead remains focused on a decade-long secular bull case. Speaking at the Ondo Summit in New York, Morehead argued that the “debasement trade” makes Bitcoin’s outperformance of gold “very obvious.” He noted that with paper money debasing at approximately 3% annually, leading to a 90% loss of value over a lifetime, fixed-supply assets are essential for wealth preservation.

Morehead highlighted that while the market has retraced 40% from its peak, the structural barriers to entry have dissolved following the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He maintains a highly bullish trajectory, citing milestones of $230,000 in the medium term and a projection of $740,000 per coin by April 2028. This vision is predicated on Bitcoin capturing a larger share of the $500 trillion global financial asset pool as nations enter a “global arms race” for digital reserves.

Scenarios & Risk Management

The market is at a crossroads where structural acceptance at current levels will dictate the trend for the remainder of Q1 2026.

• Bullish Continuation:
  To invalidate the current bearish structure, Bitcoin must first reclaim and hold $80,000. A secondary confirmation would require a breakout above the 200-week EMA at $85,836, which would signal a shift back toward a mid-term bullish regime.
• Bearish Invalidation
  A decisive close below $72,945 would signal a deeper structural breakdown. Such a move would likely trigger a retest of the $71,280 support and could extend the correction toward the $68,000 region, effectively neutralizing the 2024 breakout structure.

Conclusion

Current market structure favors the bears in the immediate term, with Bitcoin maintaining a falling trend channel.However, the asset is testing a “high-stakes” support zone near $74,000.

While Morehead’s long-term thesis emphasizes Bitcoin as a superior alternative to gold due to fiat erosion, technical confirmation of a bottom requires a reclaim of $80,000. Until this level is secured, the outlook remains one of cautious consolidation with a risk of further downside discovery.

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