Last week, employment weakened, expectations of interest rate hikes subsided, and risk assets rebounded across the board. This week, the script was played in full reverse. The driving force isLast week, employment weakened, expectations of interest rate hikes subsided, and risk assets rebounded across the board. This week, the script was played in full reverse. The driving force is
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report Sep 04–Sep 11 | AAPL's Foldable Debut, Oil Breaks $100 — Did You Pick the Right Side in a Week of Massive Rotation?
Last week, employment weakened, expectations of interest rate hikes subsided, and risk assets rebounded across the board. This week, the script was played in full reverse.
The driving force is energy. In August, PPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations. Among them, the energy sub-item rose by 4.2% in a single month, and diesel surged by 24.1%. Brent crude oil broke through 100 dollars, reaching a new high in this round. These costs will be transmitted downstream along transportation and manufacturing, and cannot be digested in one or two months. As a result, the expectation of interest rate hikes quickly rebounded - the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 rose to more than 70%, and the three major indexes fell for four consecutive days.
But the market did not fall together. Apple (AAPL) closed in the red after launching its first folding machine at the September 9th press conference, Intel (INTC) led the week after completing the issuance of 20 billion dollars, and ExxonMobil (XOM) rose with oil prices. On the other hand, NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 5.2% in a single week, and Oracle (ORCL) still fell even after submitting a financial report with a backlog of $664 billion in RPO.
Within the same week, the funds completed a clean and neat exchange. This weekly report is about the logic behind this exchange.
1. Key sectors and targets this week
Macro overview
Three major macro signals this week:
· PPI 8 month-on-month + 0.4% (as expected), year-on-year + 5.4% , higher than the expected 0.1 percentage points. Core PPI + 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%. The energy sub-item rose 4.2%, of which diesel surged 24.1% in the month, contributing more than one-third of the increase in final demand for goods.
· CPI data for August was released before the market opened on September 11 , with market expectations of + 0.4% month-on-month and about 3.3% year-on-year. After the PPI landed, the probability of FOMC raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 15-16 has risen to more than 70%, and the current interest rate range is 3.50% -3.75%.
· Brent crude oil broke through 100 dollars to a new high in this round, and the long-term yield rose synchronously. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the decline, and funds shifted from high-beta technology to large-scale technology determined by energy and cash flow; the three major indices fell for four consecutive days.
AI cloud
Oracle Bone Script (ORCL) | This Week -4.2% · This Year -21.5%
Oracle (ORCL) Q1 revenue was $19.35B, exceeding market expectations of $19.14B; non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.92, significantly exceeding expectations of $1.74. Cloud revenue increased 62% YoY to $11.61B, with cloud infrastructure (OCI) surging 121% YoY. The most closely watched remaining performance obligation (RPO) backlog rose to $664 billion, an increase of $209 billion YoY.
The financial report numbers have almost no weaknesses, but the stock price fell about 5% with the market on the day of the financial report, and only rebounded after the announcement of the after-hours numbers. The whole week still fell by 4.2%, and the cumulative decline this year is -21.5%.
AI computing power/chip
NVIDIA (NVDA) | -5.2% this week · + 17.1% this year
This week, NVIDIA (NVDA) did not have any negative news at the company level, and the decline was entirely due to interest rates. The expectation of interest rate hikes has driven up long-term yields, while the value of high-valuation growth stocks mostly comes from discounted forward cash flows - when the discount rate rises, the valuation is naturally compressed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the market's decline this week, which is a concentrated manifestation of this mechanism.
Since the beginning of this year, NVDA has still accumulated a 17.1% increase. The long-term logic has not changed, but the short-term pricing power has temporarily been handed over to the bond market.
Technology/Consumer Electronics
Apple (AAPL) | + 2.1% this week · + 20.1% this year
On September 9, Apple (AAPL) held the "Surprise and Shine" conference at Apple Park, launching the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and the first folding machine iPhone Duo, as well as the new Apple Watch and AirPods 5. The three new iPhone are all equipped with the 2nm process A20 Pro chip.
This is also the first product launch of the new CEO John Ternus - he succeeded Tim Cook, who has been in charge of Apple for nearly 15 years, on September 1st. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring believes that this is the "most decisive" release of Apple since iPhone X, and estimates that the folding machine alone may contribute about 14 billion dollars in revenue in the December quarter.
In a week when the entire market gave up due to expectations of interest rate hikes, Apple rose 2.1% against the trend.
Semiconductor/Foundry
Intel (INTC) | + 4.7% this week · + 171.9% this year
Intel (INTC) completed the issuance of 20 billion dollars Common Stock, priced at 95 dollars, with a net fundraising of about 19.70 billion dollars, which will be used for capital expenditures, working funds, and technology investment - key ammunition for its foundry and AI strategy. The news pushed the stock price from a high of 80 dollars to around 106 dollars, and then fell 5.6% to around 100 dollars on September 10th.
On September 9th, Piper Sandler started with a neutral rating and a target price of 110 dollars, stating that the nearly 330% increase in the past year fully reflects the transformation expectations. Since the beginning of this year, INTC has accumulated a cumulative increase of 171.9%, which is the most significant increase among the five targets this week, but also the most controversial valuation.
Energy
ExxonMobil (XOM) | + 3.6% this week · + 37.3% this year
Supply disturbances around the Strait of Hormuz combined with a tight refined oil market have pushed Brent crude oil above 100 dollars. ExxonMobil (XOM) rose 3.6% this week and has accumulated 37.3% this year, clearly outperforming the market.
In an inflationary environment, energy is one of the few directions that can benefit from both rising prices and improved cash flow. However, it should be noted that higher oil prices are usually a net negative for the overall stock market - it will squeeze corporate margins and push up yields, with high-beta growth stocks being the most directly affected.
2. Stock Focus
Oracle (ORCL): The order book writes the future, and the stock price writes doubt
RPO backlog of $664 billion, year-on-year increase of $209 billion - The real focus of Oracle's (ORCL) financial report is not this quarter, but the revenue that has been locked in for the next few years. Cloud infrastructure (OCI) grew by 121% in a single quarter, indicating that computing power orders are not just signed, but are being delivered.
But the reaction of the stock price is what is worth pondering: on the day of the financial report, it fell 5% with the market, and the numbers came out after the market closed, and it still fell 4.2% for the whole week. Since the beginning of this year, it has accumulated -21.5%.
The order book writes the revenue for the next few years, but the stock price writes the market's doubts - how much capital expenditure and cash flow needs to be burned to deliver this $664 billion? Oracle has not yet answered the question of the certainty of orders and the uncertainty of investment. For investors who are concerned about the AI infrastructure chain, this disagreement is more worth tracking than the financial report itself.
Apple (AAPL): Folding machine is not an extra model, but a restart button for the replacement cycle
The problem with iPhone in the past few years has never been that they can't sell, but that the replacement cycle is getting longer and longer - if the appearance doesn't change, users have no reason to change.
The fold is the first change in the shape hierarchy in seven years. Morgan Stanley estimates that the iPhone Duo alone contributed about 14 billion dollars in revenue in the December quarter and defines the launch as the most decisive since iPhone X.
It is worth noting the timing: this week, the entire market is giving up due to the expectation of interest rate hikes, while Apple (AAPL) closed higher against the trend. This reflects not only the popularity of new products, but also the market's preference shift in the environment of rising interest rates - willing to pay a premium for certain cash flow and clear product cycles. When the discount rate rises, "visible profits" are more valuable than "well-told stories".
3. Discuss this week
Discussion 1: Oil prices broke 100 dollars, pushing interest rate hikes from "option" to "default"
Last week, the softening of employment caused the expectation of interest rate hikes to subside, but this week, inflation directly pushed it back onto the table.
· The driver is energy, not demand : PPI + 5.4% year-on-year higher than expected, but the core PPI + 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%. This indicates that inflationary pressures are concentrated in energy, not overheating. Diesel + 24.1% in a single month and Brent breaking 100 dollars are the main reasons.
· But energy inflation is the hardest to ignore : such costs are transmitted downstream along transportation and manufacturing, with lags and stickiness that cannot be digested in one or two months. This is what makes it difficult for the Fed to stand still.
The suspense has changed : the probability of a rate hike has surged to over 70%, and the three major indexes have fallen for four consecutive days. The question of September 16th has changed from "will it increase" to "how many more times after that" - which is why the summary of economic forecasts (SEP) for that day is more worth reading than the resolution itself.
Discussion 2: Running the same duration logic in reverse this week
Last week, the discount rate fell, and forward assets rose the most; this week, the discount rate rebounded, and the answer was completely reversed.
· Cash flow in front of the win : Apple (AAPL) + 2.1%, Intel (INTC) + 4.7%, ExxonMobil (XOM) + 3.6% contrarian gains. The common point is not the industry, but the time position of cash flow - most of their value comes from current or near-term visible profits.
· Value pressure at the far end of the loss : NVIDIA (NVDA) -5.2%, the crypto chain led the decline; Oracle (ORCL) even record order book, the weekly line still fell 4.2%. The common point is that valuation is highly dependent on forward discounting.
· This is not a change in fundamentals, it is a change in the direction of the discount rate : the same duration logic gave completely opposite results last week and this week. Understanding this is more useful than predicting the rise and fall of the next week, because it determines the exposure structure of the entire portfolio, not just the direction of a single target.
4. Key calendars for next week
Date | Type | Event | Focus on |
9/15-16 (Tuesday to Wednesday) | Major events | FOMC interest rate decision (announced on 9/16) | The only thing that really matters throughout the week ; the probability of the market pricing a 25 basis point rate hike is over 70%, and the current interest rate range is 3.50% -3.75% |
9/16 (Wednesday) | Major events | Warsh Press Conference and Economic Forecast Summary (SEP) | More critical than the resolution itself is "how many more times later"; Warsh is reforming the Fed's communication methods, and the form and wording of this SEP are worth reading word for word |
9/16 (Wednesday) | Data | Retail sales (August) | Released on the same day as the interest rate decision; whether consumers begin to reduce non-essential spending after oil prices rise is the first clue to demand resilience |
9/17 (Thursday) | Data | Number of initial unemployment claims | The first employment reading after the decision; if it rises after the interest rate hike, it will directly test the market's tolerance for "excessive tightening" |
9/18 (Friday) | Major events | Four Witch Days (quarterly options expire at the same time as futures) | On the quarterly settlement date immediately after the FOMC, trading volume and intraday fluctuations usually increase significantly, and price fluctuations unrelated to fundamentals need to be noted in advance |
The above dates are all Eastern Time (ET), and the financial report date is subject to the company's announcement.
The rhythm of next week is highly concentrated: within one day of September 16th, there will be a triple event of interest rate decision, Warsh press conference, and retail sales, and the risks of the whole week will be almost suppressed on this day; followed by the Four Witchcraft Days on September 18th, which will amplify the technical fluctuations brought by settlement. It is recommended to pay attention to positioning risk control in advance.
5. MEXC regular investment function has been launched.
After setting up, you can automatically buy US stocks regularly without monitoring the market or timing, gradually accumulating long-term assets. In an environment where interest rates and oil prices are disturbed and short-term direction is difficult to judge, regular investment is a way to reduce timing pressure.
Access path: US Stock Account > Market > Regular Investment (upper left corner)
6. This week's Q & A
Q1: Why is the stock price still falling despite Oracle's strong financial report?
Because the market is not asking "whether there are enough orders", but "how much the cost will be". The backlog of RPO of $664 billion represents future revenue, but to deliver these orders, huge capital expenditures need to be invested first - data centers, chip procurement, and power supply will consume a lot of cash flow. On the day of the financial report, the stock price first fell 5% with the market, then rebounded after the market closed, and still fell 4.2% for the whole week. The cumulative decrease since the beginning of this year is -21.5%, reflecting the difference between "certain income and uncertain investment".
Q2: Why did NVIDIA (NVDA) fall more than the market as expectations for interest rate hikes rose?
This is the duration effect. Most of the value of overvalued growth stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future. Using a discount model, for every slight increase in the discount rate, the present value of forward cash flows shrinks much more than recent cash flows. The 5.2% drop in NVDA this week and the leading decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are not fundamental problems, but the inevitable result of changes in discount rates in mathematics.
Q3: Is the oil price breaking 100 dollars good or bad for the overall US stock market?
It's good for the energy sector, but usually a net negative for the overall market. There are two reasons for this: firstly, it pushes up the input costs of enterprises and squeezes profit margins; secondly, it strengthens inflation expectations and drives up yields, thereby suppressing valuations. The contrast between ExxonMobil (XOM) + 3.6% and NVIDIA (NVDA) -5.2% this week is a direct manifestation of this mechanism.
Q4: Can Apple's (AAPL) folding machine really drive the replacement cycle?
The key variable is whether the form change can be translated into the replacement motivation. The core reason why the replacement cycle of iPhone has been lengthened in the past few years is the convergence of appearance and the lack of reasons for users to upgrade; folding is the first change in form level in seven years, which theoretically can provide this reason. Morgan Stanley estimates that folding machines can contribute about 14 billion dollars in revenue in the December quarter. However, the actual penetration rate depends on pricing, yield and durability, and requires at least two quarters of shipment data to verify.
What should the FOMC focus on next week?
Three things, with increasing importance. The first is the interest rate decision itself (the market has highly priced in a 25 basis point hike); the second is the implication of the economic forecast summary (SEP) on the subsequent path; and the third is the wording of the Warsh press conference. Since the interest rate hike itself has been fully priced, what really causes volatility is the answer to the question of "how many more times later".
Disclaimer: This content is for market information and education reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The individual stocks in the article are publicly discussed in the market and do not represent MEXC's recommendations or opinions. Investment involves risks, please make your own cautious judgments. The rise and fall of individual stocks is public market information, and the final market situation shall prevail. This material is provided by MEXC's US stock spot team. The copyright of this week's report belongs to MEXC, please indicate the source when reprinting.
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