CDS trading for US tech companies has increased by 90% since September, as investors hedge against AI-related debt risks.CDS trading for US tech companies has increased by 90% since September, as investors hedge against AI-related debt risks.

Bearish investors flock to hedge from artificial intelligence debt risks

2025/12/15 18:24

Investors are turning to products that pay out if companies go under to shield their portfolios from a potential bust in the AI sector. Data from DTCC shows that credit default swap activity for several US tech companies has increased by 90% since early September, as investors worry about the risks of financing AI ventures with bonds that may not deliver returns for years.

Wall Street’s tech sell-off already picked up pace last week, driving a surge in hedging, after Oracle and Broadcom posted disappointing earnings.

At the heart of this changing story is Oracle Corporation, a legacy enterprise software and cloud computing powerhouse. Once considered a company that was a pillar of steady revenue and no-frills finance, Oracle has become a leading proxy of AI-linked credit risks.

The price of credit default swaps, or the cost of insuring the company’s debts, is at levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.

CDS activity rose particularly in September

The financial performance of tech companies has been on a rollercoaster as investors digest earnings reports and anticipate the impact of AI products from companies such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic.

Nonetheless, Oracle and CoreWeave have seen particularly sharp rises in CDS trading as they raise large amounts of debt to underpin data center capacity. Trading in Meta-linked CDS also took off after the company raised $30 billion through bond sales in October to finance its artificial intelligence initiatives.

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, an investment-grade credit strategist at JPMorgan, even noted that single-name CDS volumes had increased substantially this quarter, primarily driven by hyperscalers investing heavily in US data centers.

A top executive at a prominent US credit investment firm also agreed with that assessment, saying, “CDS trading in single names has increased markedly, with folks increasingly using baskets on the big tech companies or on Oracle and Meta specifically. How do you protect yourself and create a hedge? The most common way is a basket of technology CDS.” 

However, CDS interest in highly rated US firms was virtually absent early in the year, when tech companies funded AI expansion from their balance sheets rather than debt markets. The market gained momentum once borrowing replaced cash as the main funding source. Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle raised $88 billion this autumn, and JPMorgan predicts $1.5 trillion in investment-grade issuance by 2030.

Oracle’s CDS activity has been on the rise

CDS activity around Oracle has jumped sharply this year, with weekly volumes more than tripling and protection costs hitting their highest point since 2009. The company has accumulated more than $100 billion in debt, mostly to finance data centers and AI infrastructure.

Market data indicate that the company’s CDS is at approximately 126 basis points, significantly above the levels of peers such as Nvidia and Meta.

Although the firm’s assets came under heavy pressure this week after the company fell short of revenue expectations, they dropped further on Friday when it delayed at least one data center build.

Benedict Keim, a portfolio manager at asset manager Altana Wealth, noted, however, that although he did not expect Oracle to default anytime soon, he believed its CDS had been egregiously mispriced. His affiliation, Altana, had first entered the CDS trade in early October, citing Oracle’s rising debt and its heavy exposure to a single customer, OpenAI. 

Recently, Wellington’s Brij Khurana also gave his overall take on CDS trading: “Single-name CDS are having a moment.” He added, “There is much more exposure that banks and private credit players have to individual companies. So they do want to mitigate the risk of that. People are looking for insurance on their holdings.”

Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.

Piyasa Fırsatı
FLock.io Logosu
FLock.io Fiyatı(FLOCK)
$0.08859
$0.08859$0.08859
-5.18%
USD
FLock.io (FLOCK) Canlı Fiyat Grafiği
Sorumluluk Reddi: Bu sitede yeniden yayınlanan makaleler, halka açık platformlardan alınmıştır ve yalnızca bilgilendirme amaçlıdır. MEXC'nin görüşlerini yansıtmayabilir. Tüm hakları telif sahiplerine aittir. Herhangi bir içeriğin üçüncü taraf haklarını ihlal ettiğini düşünüyorsanız, kaldırılması için lütfen service@support.mexc.com ile iletişime geçin. MEXC, içeriğin doğruluğu, eksiksizliği veya güncelliği konusunda hiçbir garanti vermez ve sağlanan bilgilere dayalı olarak alınan herhangi bir eylemden sorumlu değildir. İçerik, finansal, yasal veya diğer profesyonel tavsiye niteliğinde değildir ve MEXC tarafından bir tavsiye veya onay olarak değerlendirilmemelidir.

Ayrıca Şunları da Beğenebilirsiniz

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The post The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Visions of future technology are often prescient about the broad strokes while flubbing the details. The tablets in “2001: A Space Odyssey” do indeed look like iPads, but you never see the astronauts paying for subscriptions or wasting hours on Candy Crush.  Channel factories are one vision that arose early in the history of the Lightning Network to address some challenges that Lightning has faced from the beginning. Despite having grown to become Bitcoin’s most successful layer-2 scaling solution, with instant and low-fee payments, Lightning’s scale is limited by its reliance on payment channels. Although Lightning shifts most transactions off-chain, each payment channel still requires an on-chain transaction to open and (usually) another to close. As adoption grows, pressure on the blockchain grows with it. The need for a more scalable approach to managing channels is clear. Channel factories were supposed to meet this need, but where are they? In 2025, subnetworks are emerging that revive the impetus of channel factories with some new details that vastly increase their potential. They are natively interoperable with Lightning and achieve greater scale by allowing a group of participants to open a shared multisig UTXO and create multiple bilateral channels, which reduces the number of on-chain transactions and improves capital efficiency. Achieving greater scale by reducing complexity, Ark and Spark perform the same function as traditional channel factories with new designs and additional capabilities based on shared UTXOs.  Channel Factories 101 Channel factories have been around since the inception of Lightning. A factory is a multiparty contract where multiple users (not just two, as in a Dryja-Poon channel) cooperatively lock funds in a single multisig UTXO. They can open, close and update channels off-chain without updating the blockchain for each operation. Only when participants leave or the factory dissolves is an on-chain transaction…
Paylaş
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:09
SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime

SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime

The post SOLANA NETWORK Withstands 6 Tbps DDoS Without Downtime appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In a pivotal week for crypto infrastructure, the Solana network
Paylaş
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/12/16 20:44
Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Paylaş
Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25