Rubio rises as Vance falls —all because one told truth and one told lies

President Donald Trump may be boosting Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Vice President JD Vance because Vance, unlike Rubio, told the truth about the Iran war.

“It’s clear that Trump is displeased with JD Vance,” wrote The Bulwark’s conservative commentator Jonathan V. Last on Wednesday. “Early on, when Trump thought he was winning in Iran, there were leaks about Vance not being onboard with the war. Daddy Trump sent Vance to negotiate with the Iranians when they clearly had all the cards, setting him up for failure—and at the same time took Rubio with him on vacation to fight night. There was a huge dump of leaks designed to show that Trump doesn’t think Vance has the juice.”

Citing Rubio’s recent congressional testimony, in which he parroted Trump’s incorrect claims that "the war is over now” and "[w]e’re going to continue to systematically clear this passageway through the straits to restore freedom of navigation,” Last concluded that Vance fell out of favor with Trump because of his reported reservations about America invading Iran.

“In a rational world, you might expect Trump to see Vance’s correct assessment of Iran as a positive and Rubio’s mistaken assessment as a negative,” Last wrote. “But that’s not how humans work.” Quoting the fictional character Albus Dumbledore from the famous “Harry Potter” literary series, Last observed that “people find it far easier to forgive others for being wrong than being right.” He then speculated that “the worse Iran gets, the worse it will be for Vance. Trump will become even more resentful—even if Vance never says told you so. Trump will remember that Vance was the one who told him not to do it.”

Last also mused that if Vance had been incorrect about the Iran war, his standing with Trump would potentially be more secure.

“In a funny way, I suspect Vance’s position inside Trump’s court would be stronger if the war had been successful and he’d been wrong,” Last explained. “In that case, Trump could magnanimously forgive him and chide him for being a worrywart.”

In contrast to Last, ex-GOP presidential aide Steve Schmidt argued on Wednesday that Vance might actually be better positioned to inherit the Republican Party’s presidential leadership than Rubio.

“Marco Rubio will never, ever be the President of the United States, but because of the terribleness of [Vice President] JD Vance, he has become sort of a flavor of the month,” Schmidt, who advised President George W. Bush, said on his Substack. “And because of the corruption of the corporate media, Marco Rubio is taken and treated seriously. He's treated like a statesman.”

Even though Rubio supporters praise his handling of foreign policy, Schmidt pointed out that Trump still seems to invest greater power in Vance.

“At the end of the day, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is not leading the negotiations in Pakistan — JD Vance is,” Schmidt argued. “And he's accompanied by the President's son-in-law, who may be one ... of the most corrupt individuals in the history of the country. ... These men are raking in billions in corrupt acts around the globe and they're leading the negotiations. The man who the Saudis deposited $2 billion of cash into his investment fund despite him having no investment experience.”

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