Bitcoin (BTC) Price: US-Iran Deal Hopes Drive Bounce But ETF Outflows Cap Recovery

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped to a five-week low of $74,250 on Saturday before recovering to around $76,800.
• Trump posted on Truth Social that a US-Iran peace deal was “largely negotiated,” sparking a market bounce.
• Trump later walked back the comments, saying the deal was not “even fully negotiated yet.”
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.257 billion in net outflows for the week of May 18–22.
• Analyst Ted Pillows says BTC needs to reclaim $77,500–$78,000 to target the $80,000 zone.

Bitcoin fell to its lowest point in five weeks over the weekend, touching $74,250 on Saturday before clawing back some ground on Sunday. The recovery was short-lived, with BTC sitting around $76,697 as of Sunday afternoon.

The drop came as crypto markets remained under pressure from multiple directions — ETF outflows, rising global bond yields, and continued uncertainty over US-Iran relations.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social that a peace deal between the US, Iran, and several Middle Eastern nations had been “largely negotiated.” The announcement sent crypto markets up roughly $75 billion in total value, and Bitcoin bounced sharply off its lows.

But Trump walked back the statement the next day. He said he had told US negotiators “not to rush into a deal” and that the agreement had not “even been fully negotiated yet.”

The back-and-forth left Bitcoin unable to hold its gains. By Sunday afternoon, BTC had slipped back after briefly tagging the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000.

ETF Outflows Weigh on Recovery

One of the clearest headwinds for Bitcoin this week was the sustained exit from crypto ETFs. According to data shared by Wu Blockchain, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.257 billion in the week of May 18–22. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $216 million in outflows over the same period.

Not all assets saw outflows. Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $22.04 million in net inflows, and spot HYPE ETFs saw $72.38 million. SOL ETFs added $15.63 million.

The Bitcoin ETF outflows reflect continued caution among institutional investors despite the geopolitical bounce.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since failing to break resistance at $82,000. It remains down 39% from its October all-time high.

Adding to the pressure, a global bond sell-off pushed expectations for interest rate hikes higher across multiple central banks. Higher rate environments have historically weighed on risk assets including crypto.

A US Senate legislative breakthrough on May 14 had previously sparked a brief rally, but the market has since pulled back from those gains.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route whose closure has driven global energy prices higher, was cited in both the draft deal and Trump’s reversal as a central issue yet to be resolved.

As of Sunday, Bitcoin remains below the key $78,000 level with ETF flows and Fed policy signals both under close watch.

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