Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Is a Memory Shortage About to Slow the AI Giant?

TLDR

• KeyBanc analyst John Vinh says Nvidia may cut 2026 Rubin GPU production to 1.5 million units, down from a planned 2 million.
• The reduction is linked to delays securing high-bandwidth memory from SK Hynix and Micron Technology.
• Despite the concern, KeyBanc kept its Overweight rating and $275 price target on NVDA.
• CEO Jensen Huang has stated Vera Rubin AI servers are in “full production,” with sales expected in H2 2026.
• Nvidia holds roughly 90% of AI accelerator spend and ~85% of the AI chip market overall.

Nvidia may have been forced to scale back its production plans for its next-generation Rubin graphics-processing units, according to a new note from KeyBanc. The analyst firm says output could come in at around 1.5 million units this year, down from a planned 2 million.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The culprit? A shortage of high-bandwidth memory. Suppliers SK Hynix and Micron Technology have reportedly been unable to deliver enough of the specialized memory that the Rubin GPUs require, causing the production shortfall.

Analyst John Vinh flagged the issue but stopped short of sounding the alarm. He kept his Overweight rating on the stock and held his price target at $275 — well above where the stock is currently trading.

The Rubin GPU powers Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin AI servers, which CEO Jensen Huang has said are already in “full production.” Sales are targeted for the second half of this year.

Those servers are no small upgrade. Vera Rubin is projected to be 3.3 times faster than the current Blackwell Ultra — Nvidia’s existing top-end hardware. The platform pairs Rubin GPUs with Vera central-processing units.

Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment before publication.

Still Dominant Despite the Delay

Even with the production hiccup, Nvidia’s grip on the AI chip market remains firm. The company captures roughly 90% of AI accelerator spend and controls about 85% of the broader AI chip market.

Tech giants are projected to spend between $600 billion and $700 billion on AI data centers in 2026 alone — a spend cycle that Nvidia is positioned to benefit from more than any other chipmaker.

In its most recent quarter, Nvidia posted revenue growth of 75% year over year. Its Q1 guidance topped Wall Street estimates by $5 billion, pointing to growth of around 77%.

Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin holds approximately $4 billion in Nvidia stock, making it the top position in his portfolio according to recent filings.

Software and Next Cycles

Beyond the hardware story, Nvidia has been quietly building out its software business. Its AI Enterprise suite is expected to carry margins above 80% and could reach $10 billion in revenue by 2027.

Physical AI — robotics, autonomous vehicles, humanoid manufacturing — represents another hardware cycle that analysts say has barely begun.

Monday’s premarket move was broadly in line with the wider market. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1%, while Dow Jones futures were little changed.

Broadcom (AVGO) was up 0.5% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was up 0.7% in premarket trading.

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