OSL Trading Moments: XRP hits a 7-year high, BTC’s position as a wealth preservation tool is increasingly consolidated

1. Market observation

Keywords: BTC, XRP, AAVE

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a new uptrend, with the price now approaching the $100,000 mark. As of December 1, 2024, the price of Bitcoin remained at $97,227. Although the price briefly dropped to $95,758, it subsequently stabilized above $97,000. It is worth noting that this price level could alienate retail investors. In addition to Bitcoin, altcoins such as SHIB, FIL, MNT, and AAVE are also expected to see an uptrend. However, there is no clear conclusion on how Trump's re-election as president will affect the cryptocurrency sector.

Institutional investors include Hong Kong-based gaming company Boyaa Interactive, which has converted its Ethereum holdings into nearly $50 million worth of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Rumble plans to invest up to $20 million in Bitcoin, largely driven by increased institutional adoption and an improving political environment in the United States. In addition, Fund I of Recursive Capital, funded by Jack Dorsey, is supporting Bitcoin startup projects in Africa.

In terms of market performance, XRP surpassed Solana, hitting a 7-year high of $2, while Ethereum also hit a six-month high. It is worth noting that Ethereum futures open interest has reached a record high of $23 billion, showing a surge in market interest in Ethereum derivatives. At the same time, Ethereum whales' recent $188 million purchase may push its price above $4,000.

Looking ahead, the market expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within a year. However, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, holds a different view, believing that Bitcoin may pull back to $60,000. Currently, $5.34 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, which may indicate that the market is about to see a pullback or rebound. If demand continues to exceed supply, Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in the near future.

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin's position as a wealth preservation tool is increasingly consolidated, and its volatility has been lower than that of technology stocks such as Nvidia and AMD. The US Bitcoin ETF currently holds more than 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5% of the total supply. Globally, Brazil has proposed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, while El Salvador is exploring the use of volcanic energy for Bitcoin mining. With global liquidity expected to increase by $20 trillion, analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in 2025.

2. Key data (as of 10:00 HKT on December 2)

• S&P 500: 6,032.38 (+26.47% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,218.17 points (+28.02% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.222% (+34.11 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 106.230 (+4.87% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $97,589.63 (+130.90% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $37.58 billion

• Ethereum: $3,713.31 (+62.76% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $28.11 billion

3. ETF flows (November 30 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: $320 million

• Ethereum ETF: $332.9 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (11:00 p.m., December 2)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 46.5 / Expected: 47.5

JOLTS job openings (December 3 at 11:00 pm)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 7.44 million / Expected: 7.49 million

ISM Services PMI (11:00 p.m., December 4)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 56 / Expected: 55.5

Non-farm payrolls (9:30 p.m., December 6)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 12,000 / Expected: 183,000

Unemployment rate (9:30 p.m., December 6)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.1% / Expected: 4.1%

5. Hot News

• The relative unrealized profit rate of BTC long-term holders is 0.74, which is lower than the previous high.

• Signum Capital investment director shares investment experience: Reduce risk at the end of the bull market and focus on "no loss is a win"

• Michael Saylor Suggests Microsoft to Adopt Bitcoin as Core Corporate Strategy

• Moonshot Launches Solana On-Chain Meme Coin Mundi (MUNDI)

• Swell L2 is expected to be launched in mid-to-late December

• Hyperliquid surpasses Aave in market value, rising to 55th place in the cryptocurrency market value ranking

• Placeholder Partner: Meme coin may be the vane of the bull-bear cycle of the cost round

• MOBILE breaks through $0.0025, up more than 190% in 24 hours

• Data: TAIKO, ADA, ENA and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, of which TAIKO unlocks about 20.9 million US dollars

• Arthur Hayes: The bull market can continue, South Korea postpones taxation of virtual assets for two years

• Base founder: No plans to launch tokens

• Data: US Bitcoin ETF purchased 71,570 Bitcoins in November

• Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Data frenzy" is coming, Powell and non-agricultural data are blowing up the market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be "poured cold water"

• US scholar: White House's promotion of Bitcoin may shake people's trust in the US dollar as the global reserve currency

• Deutsche Bank: The Fed is expected to suspend interest rate adjustments throughout 2025

• Fox Business: New York regulators will approve Ripple to issue stablecoin RLUSD

• Weekly preview | Ripple plans to issue stablecoin RLUSD; CBOE launches first cash-settled options product related to spot Bitcoin

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