U.S. Government Shutdown Odds Hit 84%, Will Bitcoin Crash Again?

The odds of a U.S. government shutdown before February 14 continue surging. The spikes come as Bitcoin and broader crypto markets continue to slide, with total market cap falling 1.8% to $2.3 trillion. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9 from 10, adding to concerns Bitcoin could fall again after dipping below $70,000 during the last partial shutdown.

U.S. Government Shutdown Odds Jump as Funding Deadline Nears

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, traders are now pricing an 84% probability of a U.S. government shutdown before February 14. The odds have climbed sharply, rising by 66% in recent days, as fiscal tensions increase.

Source: Polymarket

Notably, the shutdown fears are tied directly to expiring federal funding. The market has grown more pessimistic that lawmakers can finalize a deal before the deadline. As a result, expectations for a short-term funding bill remain low. 

Polymarket data suggests traders see little chance Congress will pass a bill this week. This uncertainty has coincided with a broader market sell-off. Bitcoin has remained under pressure as risk sentiment weakens across digital assets.

Analysts’ Views as Bitcoin Holds Near Key Levels

Analysts on X have outlined their views for Bitcoin as the broader crypto market stays under pressure. One analyst on X, The Hunter, warned that the current dip could deepen, pointing to BTC near $67,000, Ethereum at $1,950, and Solana at $81. 

The analyst also argued Bitcoin could keep falling and potentially break below $50,000 if selling pressure continues. However, Axel Bitblaze offered a less aggressive downside view, comparing Bitcoin’s current structure to 2024 before a major upside move. 

He said BTC may remain stuck in a wide $60,000 to $80,000 range for some time, with brief rallies followed by sharp pullbacks. Bitblaze also suggested the market could see choppy conditions that frustrate both bulls and bears, rather than a quick rebound. 

While he does not expect a clean V-shaped recovery, he also dismissed the idea of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000, describing the move instead as a slow grind that wears out traders before a base forms.

RSI Near Oversold as MACD Stays Deeply Negative

While shutdown odds continue rising, Bitcoin’s technical structure remains weak. The broader trend turned bearish after rejection near the $100,000 to $95,000 region earlier in 2026. BTC’s price also broke below the prior consolidation zone around $85,000 to $90,000.  That breakdown accelerated the decline toward the $60,000 to $70,000 support range. 

Source: TradingView

The RSI is at 30.54, while its signal line is near 28.79. Notably, this places momentum near the oversold level, which can raise chances of a short-term bounce. However, the MACD is deeply negative at around -5,774.60 and -4,954.66. 

The histogram is near -819.94, indicating strong bearish momentum despite slight contraction. Key support is at $65,700, followed by the psychological $60,000 level. Resistance has shifted lower, now near $70,000 to $72,000.