ZEC Weekly Analysis Feb 9

ZEC is consolidating at the $240 level with a slight -0.18% drop on a weekly basis, the main downtrend structure remains intact, and critical supports are being tested. While the market structure maintains distribution phase characteristics, BTC’s bearish momentum creates additional pressure for altcoins.

ZEC in the Weekly Market Summary

ZEC exhibited a narrow consolidation in the range $228.01 – $245.67 last week and is currently positioned at $240.15. Volume profile remained limited at $484.31M, which is a signal questioning trend continuity for position traders. The main trend is confirmed as downtrend; RSI at 32.98 approaching oversold region while MACD shows negative histogram. No close above EMA20 ($300.07) strengthens short-term bearish bias. In the big picture, ZEC is trading near the lower band of the long-term descending channel and points to the final stages of the distribution phase in terms of market cycle. This week, it is beneficial to monitor critical levels for detailed ZEC spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

In long-term timeframes (1W/1M), ZEC displays a clear downtrend structure. Price is moving within a channel characterized by lower highs and lower lows since the 2021 peak. Trend filter gives bearish signal and main resistance is positioned at $341.64. Market structure confirms the trend remains intact by showing bearish continuation patterns (failures within falling wedges) in recent months. In macro context, regulatory uncertainty for privacy coins and increasing BTC dominance limit ZEC’s recovery. From a portfolio manager perspective, the trend will remain downtrend until price breaks $184.57 support.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis reveals that the current structure carries distribution characteristics. Weekly volume profile aligns with high-volume selling regions ($245+), low-volume support tests (around $230). RSI declining to 32.98 might signal accumulation, but lack of MACD divergence and negative histogram indicate smart money continues selling pressure. According to Wyckoff methodology, this phase is close to late distribution; if spring tests fail, markdown phase may deepen. Strong volume increase at $184.57 is required for accumulation, otherwise short positions remain advantageous. ZEC futures market data is an ideal source to confirm this phase.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, 2 support / 3 resistance confluence is observed. Price is trying to hold above $230.23 support but bearish pressure dominates below EMA20. Momentum indicators (RSI oversold, Stochastic low) offer short-term bounce potential, but MACD line crossover is bearish. Main decision point is $247.70 resistance; if no upside breakout confluence, daily downtrend continues. Multi-TF confluence score is low, requiring expectation of choppy action.

Weekly Chart View

From weekly perspective, resistance-heavy structure with 2 support / 5 resistance. Price is distant from weekly EMA50 ($272+) and in the middle band of downtrend channel. Volume decrease signals trend exhaustion, but resistance dominance (total 10R vs 6S) among 15 strong levels reinforces bearish bias. Similar 2S/2R balance in 3D timeframe emphasizes no bullish inflection expected without weekly close above $247. For long-term position traders, weekly candle structure (doji-like) shows indecision.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $184.5700 (73/100 score, high multi-TF confluence), $230.2266 (65/100, weekly range low). Resistances: $247.7033 (75/100, critical pivot), $272.9705 (63/100), $534.0057 (62/100, long-term target). Trend structure breaks above $247.70 and changes below $184.57. These levels carry confluence in 1D/3D/1W; $230 breakdown opens downside risk to $30.77 (22 score). Upside target $467.2850 (26 score) is distant. Follow these points for ZEC and other analyses.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

Bullish scenario: Strong close above $247.70 with volume increase toward EMA20. First target $272.97, then $341.64 breakout. Long position with $230 stop-loss for 1:3+ R/R ratio. Confluence: RSI divergence + BTC stabilization. Position size 2-5%, trailing stop at $247 pivot.

In Bearish Case

Bearish scenario: Breakdown below $230.23 testing $184.57, then downside to $30.77. Short entry on $247 rejection, stop above $255. R/R 1:4+, with MACD confirmation. Distribution continuation likely, keep leverage low.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $70,598 (24h -0.73%), supertrend bearish and dominance increase creates negative correlation for ZEC. If BTC breaks $68,840 support, pressure on ZEC $230 increases; if $72,017 resistance surpassed, altcoin relief rally possible. BTC key levels ($62,910 support, $78,962 resistance) dominate ZEC strategy – BTC bearish bias supports ZEC shorts.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus on $247.70 resistance test and $230 support; BTC movements decisive. If trend downtrend remains intact, distribution deepens; wait for oversold bounce for accumulation. Position traders stay R/R focused, seek volume confluence.