Chainlink (LINK) is giving signals in the oversold region as it approaches the critical $8.97 support level; however, could Bitcoin’s downtrend prevent an altcoin rally?
Market Outlook and Current Situation
Chainlink (LINK) is trading at $9.33 with a sharp 5.66% drop in the last 24 hours and is fully aligned with the general market downtrend. In the daily timeframe, the 24-hour range is stuck between $9.33-$9.92, while trading volume remained at a moderate level of $287.19 million. This decline reflects the general pressure on the altcoin market amid rising Bitcoin dominance. Despite being the backbone of the DeFi ecosystem as an oracle network, LINK is losing value due to macroeconomic uncertainties and risk aversion. Its continued stay below EMA20 ($11.39) in the short-term outlook shows that sellers are in control.
LINK is moving in parallel with Bitcoin’s 5.04% drop across the market, showing weak performance on the weekly chart as well. The Supertrend indicator is producing a bearish signal, while MTF (multi-timeframe) confluence analysis identified a total of 8 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W. This configuration indicates downward momentum dominance in the short term. With no significant news flow, technical levels remain in the foreground. Investors awaiting BTC stabilization for a potential recovery may face deeper corrections if the current downtrend continues.
From a long-term perspective, LINK’s utility in the Chainlink ecosystem remains strong; however, market sentiment is in risk-off mode. Declining volume in the volume profile suggests the decline may be tiring, but a trend reversal seems difficult without a strong catalyst. In this context, reviewing LINK Spot Analysis could be useful for evaluating positions in the spot market.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Regions
The most critical support level stands out at $8.9717 (score: 85/100); this level forms a strong confluence point on the daily chart and has been tested multiple times in the past as a base. If it breaks below this level, the next support cluster could shift to the $8.50-$8.00 band according to MTF analysis, as 3 strong supports cluster here on the 1W timeframe. This region, just below the psychological $9.00 threshold, has a high chance of holding; however, no sustained recovery should be expected without volume increase. Historical data shows rebounds after 20-30% pullbacks in similar support tests, but the current downtrend weakens this scenario.
Resistance Barriers
No strong resistance level (score >=60) is currently detected; the nearest potential barrier is at Supertrend resistance $11.74. EMA20 ($11.39) and potential 3D resistances line up around $12.00, requiring a momentum shift to break these regions. In the short term, the first resistance test could come if price retraces to $10.50, but the bearish Supertrend may limit this move. Weak resistances create an asymmetric risk profile favoring downside; volume confirmation is mandatory for a breakout.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (14) at 25.28 points to the oversold region, signaling a potential bounce; historically, short-term recoveries increase when RSI stays below 30. However, MACD’s negative histogram and signal line crossover confirm bearish momentum, with histogram expansion showing the downtrend’s strength persists. Price remaining below EMA20 reinforces short-term bearish bias in the EMA hierarchy, while EMA50 (around $12.50) stands as a distant target. The bearish Supertrend emphasizes trend strength favoring sellers.
In MTF confluence, bearish bias dominates on the 1W timeframe, with resistance weight on 3D supporting the decline. OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator shows declining volume, indicating buyers have not yet entered. Overall trend strength analysis with ADX (average 28) signals moderate downtrend power; RSI divergence would increase reversal potential. These indicators necessitate a cautious approach – review leverage risks in futures with LINK Futures Analysis.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
Risk/reward profile is more attractive on bearish targets: Bearish target $4.7927 (score:22) is 48.6% below current price, while bullish $13.7400 (score:13) is 47.4% above. R/R ratio favors bearish scenario at around 1:1.5, as support breakdown probability is higher per MTF. In a positive scenario, an oversold RSI bounce could reach $11.00, but BTC resistance may cap it. On the negative side, a $8.97 breakdown would trigger a cascade effect, opening the path to $7.50.
Trading outlook is bearish-neutral in the short term; for long positions, $8.97 hold and RSI divergence are required. For shorts, rejection above $9.50 is ideal. With high volatility, stop-losses are critical: below support at $8.80, below resistance at $10.20. Macro risks (Fed policies, BTC halving pre-consolidation) are pressuring altcoins. Limit LINK positions to 5-10% in a balanced portfolio, always do your own research.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is sustaining its downtrend with a 5.04% drop at $75,067, exerting heavy pressure on altcoins like LINK (correlation coefficient ~0.85). BTC’s main supports are $74,625, $71,188, and $63,235; breakdowns here could trigger an additional 10-20% drop in LINK. Conversely, BTC resistances toward $76,937, $79,318, and $84,450 would provide relief for LINK – bearish Supertrend on BTC delays altcoin rally. LINK’s high dependence on BTC; if BTC stays below $74K, LINK’s $8.97 test accelerates. Investors should monitor BTC dominance (rising), as BTC stabilization is essential for alt season.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/link-technical-analysis-february-3-2026-support-resistance-market-commentary-and-price-targets
