Bitcoin has fallen roughly 40.5% from its October all-time peak, to trade below the $80,000 mark — but the downtrend could accelerate further sans any new near-term catalysts, pulling the price to as low as $56,000 per coin, according to Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn.
In a note on Monday, Thorn predicted that there is a “significant chance” that in the coming weeks and months, Bitcoin could slip to the bottom of a gap in supply at $70,000 before testing its realized price of $56,000, the average cost of all BTC in circulation.
“Catalysts remain hard to find, and narratives are also working against Bitcoin as it fails to trade along with gold and silver as part of a market-wide ‘debasement hedge trade,’” Thorn said in a post on X.
Historical on-chain data also suggests Bitcoin is due for another mammoth correction. Thorn observed that whenever Bitcoin has declined approximately 40% from its all-time high, it has extended the pullback to 50% in every time except once.
Moreover, data from the last three bull markets shows that when Bitcoin’s price dropped below the 50-day moving average, it fell further to the 200-week moving average. Much to the chagrin of the bulls, Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November, while its 200-week moving average currently stands at $58,000.
“Those levels have historically marked cycle bottoms and made strong entry points for long-term investors,” Thorn explained.
Slowing Long-Term Holders’ Sales Signal Bottom Is Near
Thorn pointed out that there is also “little evidence of significant accumulation” from large buyers and long-term holders. This could further drag Bitcoin down as it suggests this cohort could be waiting for lower prices before buying in.
However, he observed that long-term holder profit-taking, which can hinder price gains, has finally begun relenting.
“2024 and 2025 saw more profit-taking in dollar terms by long-term holders than any other time in Bitcoin’s history,” Thorn postulated. “This distribution has finally abated, though it’s possible there are more long-term holders who are waiting for higher prices to sell.”
“Nonetheless, the recent decline in long-term holder realized profit taking is notable, and should signal we are closing in on a bottom,” he continued.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin has plummeted 4.4% over the past 24 hours to $74,089 as of press time — its lowest price since 2024 — as the weekend’s crypto sell-off has worsened.
A fall to $58,000 — the 200-week moving average— would lead to approximately 26% more losses, but according to Thorn, it would present an attractive entry zone for long-term investors.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/heres-why-bitcoin-could-crash-to-56000-according-to-galaxy-analyst/
