CHZ Technical Analysis Feb 3

CHZ is trapped in a sideways market structure and consolidating around $0.04; however, the bearish Supertrend signal and positioning below EMA20 increase the risk of a downward structure break (BOS), monitor critical levels for trend reversal.

Market Structure Overview

CHZ’s current market structure exhibits a short-term sideways (horizontal) character. The price has stabilized at the $0.04 level and moved within the $0.04-$0.05 range with a 5.71% decline over the last 24 hours. This structure does not show a clear higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) bullish trend or lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) bearish trend; instead, range-bound consolidation dominates. Failure to stay above EMA20 ($0.05) strengthens the short-term bearish bias. RSI at 42.38 is neutral-bearish, and MACD’s negative histogram confirms selling pressure. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified a total of 15 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/2 resistances on 3D, and 4 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels stand out as pivot points that will determine structural integrity. The market is awaiting tests of these levels before defining a clear trend; BOS (Break of Structure) or CHoCH (Change of Character) signals are critical for the sideways structure to break.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the formation of HH/HL structure is required: The recent recovery from the $0.0368 swing low to $0.0454 suggests a potential higher low, but a higher high has not yet been confirmed. A sustained close above $0.0499 resistance could trigger bullish continuation and lead to the $0.0746 structural target (low score: 22/100). However, with the current price remaining below EMA20, these signals are weak; they should be supported by RSI rising above 50 and MACD turning positive. For a bullish BOS in the sideways structure, a clear break above $0.0454 is needed; otherwise, the HH/HL sequence cannot be completed.

Downtrend Risk

For a downtrend, the LH/LL pattern dominates: Price rejected from the $0.0499 swing high formed a lower high and approached the $0.0410 support. Combined with the Supertrend bearish signal, this situation confirms LH/LL on a break below $0.0410 and brings the $0.0368 LL target. MACD bearish histogram and RSI at 42 support the downside momentum. A close below $0.0410 confirms the bearish structure as CHoCH; this level (score 78/100) carries high importance, and a break could open the door to distant bearish targets like $0.0033 (score 4/100). Short-term risk is concentrated in the transition from the lower band of sideways to LH/LL.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels are key points that will disrupt the current sideways structure: For bullish BOS, a daily close above the $0.0454 (score 84/100) swing high is required; this initiates the HH sequence and targets EMA20 ($0.05). $0.0499 (score 79/100) is a major resistance – its break confirms bullish structure on the 1W timeframe. For bearish BOS, a close below the $0.0410 (score 78/100) swing low is critical; breaching this level forms the LL structure and tests $0.0368 (score 65/100). MTF 3D/1W supports (around $0.0368) provide additional protection but could weaken with BTC correlation. Trend prediction is risky without BOS confirmation; volume increase should be monitored for CHoCH. These levels are structural invalidation points: Absence of upward BOS solidifies bearish LH/LL, absence of downward BOS continues sideways.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $0.0454 (score 84/100, near resistance – gateway to bullish BOS), $0.0499 (score 79/100, major resistance – rejected in LH formation). These levels are test points for upside momentum; above $0.0454 creates HH, staying below reinforces LH. Resistance clusters on 1D/3D timeframes indicate selling pressure.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $0.0410 (score 78/100, main support – bearish BOS level), $0.0368 (score 65/100, secondary support – LL target). These points preserve HL potential; holding $0.0410 continues sideways, a break initiates LL bearish trend. The 4 support levels on 1W could brake deep declines but are risky with BTC weakness.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,862 is in a downtrend (2.84% decline), with Supertrend bearish and rising dominance pressuring altcoins. CHZ is highly correlated with BTC (typical altcoin behavior); if BTC breaks $76,139 support, CHZ’s $0.0410 BOS accelerates. Even if BTC tests resistances at $78,739/$84,450, bearish bias pulls CHZ sideways downward. Watch: BTC drop below $73,996 triggers CHZ $0.0368; BTC recovery supports CHZ $0.0454 BOS. BTC key supports ($76,139, $73,996) align with CHZ swing lows – correlation at 80+% levels.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

CHZ structural outlook is sideways-bearish biased: No HH/HL, high LH/LL risk. If critical $0.0410 support fails, expect bearish BOS; if $0.0454 breaks, expect bullish CHoCH. MTF levels are strong, but BTC downtrend signals caution for altcoins. Investors should follow detailed tracking via CHZ Spot Analysis and CHZ Futures Analysis. The structure evolves based on BOS levels – educationally, monitor swing points to distinguish trend continuation/reversal. Market structures are dynamic; regular MTF checks are essential. (Total words: ~1150)