CHZ Technical Analysis Jan 23

Current market structure state – trend intact or shifting?

Market Structure Overview

CHZ, with its current price stabilized at the $0.05 level, the overall market structure still maintains the upward trend. The Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) pattern dominates, supported by recovery from the last swing low of $0.0499. However, Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and MACD shows a negative histogram, indicating short-term weakness signs. RSI at 54.75 is in the neutral zone, holding above EMA20 ($0.05) to sustain the short-term bullish structure. In Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 16 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances in 1D, 2 supports/4 resistances in 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances in 1W. These levels are critical points that will determine structural integrity. The main level to watch for structure breakdown (Break of Structure – BOS) is below the last swing low $0.0499; breaking here could trigger a shift to LH/LL structure and create a Change of Character (CHoCH). Above, $0.0555 and $0.0598 resistances confirm trend continuation with BOS. 24-hour change limited to +0.41%, narrow range ($0.05-$0.05), consolidation dominant.

Trend Analysis: Up or Down?

Uptrend Signals

The foundation of the uptrend is formed by the HH/HL pattern. The recent rise from $0.0455 swing low to $0.0555 swing high created an HL, reinforced by $0.0499 HL. The current price at $0.05 holds above EMA20, preserving short-term bullish momentum. This structure is a classic trend continuation signal: each new low higher than the previous low (HL), with potential for each high higher than the previous high. Bullish continuation target $0.0832, requiring BOS above $0.0598 to reach it. RSI neutral but above 50, momentum could shift from neutral to bullish. In MTF, 1W timeframe HH pattern is strong, long-term uptrend intact.

Downtrend Risk

Bearish risk increases with LH/LL formation. Supertrend bearish and $0.06 resistance, combined with MACD negative histogram, create short-term pressure. If $0.0499 swing low breaks, LH/LL begins, testing $0.0455 and $0.0410. Bearish breakdown target $0.0033 (long-term, low probability). CHoCH requires close below $0.0499; this would invalidate the uptrend. 3D timeframe has 4 resistances dominant, high pressure potential. BTC sideways but dominance bearish supertrend increases risk for altcoins.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: close above $0.0555 (78/100 score), then $0.0598 (64/100). This creates a new HH and strengthens the uptrend. Bearish BOS: below $0.0499 (87/100), triggers CHoCH, shift to LH/LL. Secondary bearish: break of $0.0455 (72/100). MTF BOS: 1D $0.05 pivot, 3D $0.0598 resistance, 1W $0.0410 support. Post-BOS targets: Bullish $0.0832, bearish $0.0410-$0.0033. Narrow range indicates setup ready for volatility breakout. Watch: Volume increase confirms BOS.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Last swing high $0.0555 (78/100), strong resistance, rejected. $0.0598 (64/100) upper level, key for BOS. These points should be tested for HH continuation. Breakout confirms trend strength; failure risks LH. Similar resistances in 3D/1W MTF form a structural resistance cluster. Importance: Above $0.0555 signals buyer dominance.

Recent Swing Lows

Last swing low $0.0499 (87/100), main support, preserves HL structure. $0.0455 (72/100) and $0.0410 (69/100) secondary. These lows form the uptrend foundation; breakdown triggers CHoCH. Importance: Holding $0.0499 validates bullish structure. Aligned with 1W support, long-term floor.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC $90,866 (+1.32%), sideways trend, key supports $89,096/$87,611/$84,681, resistances $92,284/$94,436/$97,265. BTC Supertrend bearish, dominance cautions altcoins. CHZ highly correlated with BTC; BTC drop below $89k accelerates CHZ test of $0.0499. BTC BOS above $92k triggers CHZ rally to $0.0555. BTC sideways extends CHZ consolidation. Watch: BTC dominance increase weakens altcoin structure.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Uptrend intact (HH/HL), bullish as long as above $0.0499. Wait for bearish BOS below $0.0499 for CHoCH. Short-term Supertrend/MACD pressure, but EMA20 support strong. MTF balanced, volatility increase will clarify structure. Details in CHZ Spot Analysis and CHZ Futures Analysis. Structures dynamic, monitor continuously.