Trading Moments: Silver plunges after hitting a new high; institutions warn of potential correction in precious metals; Bitcoin exhibits a "dead cat bounce"?

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The new week began with the precious metals market bearing the brunt. Spot silver, after breaking through $84/ounce to a record high, was pressured by profit-taking, quickly plunging and turning into an intraday decline, eventually fluctuating around $78. This rollercoaster ride directly impacted related financial products. Spot gold retreated from its historical high of nearly $4,550, while platinum and palladium both fell by nearly or more than 7%. Besides the traditional logic of Fed rate cut expectations and continued central bank gold purchases, the market began pricing in a new narrative of "commodity control," highlighting the growing importance of geopolitics and supply chain security, particularly after China announced export licenses for silver starting January 1, 2026, further exacerbating expectations of tight global physical supply. However, market divergence also intensified, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raising silver futures margin requirements twice in two weeks, sparking concerns about a repeat of the 2011 silver price collapse caused by similar measures. Goldman Sachs and other institutions are bullish on gold's continued strength in 2026, with a target price potentially exceeding $4,900. However, UBS and Capital Economics warn that precious metal prices have deviated from fundamentals, accumulating the risk of a correction. Capital Economics even predicts that silver prices may fall back to $42 by the end of next year. Regarding silver, despite strong industrial demand in sectors like solar energy, analysts point out that a price of $134/ounce could lead to demand disruption. Copper, as a potential substitute, is unlikely to pose a threat in the short term due to the need for at least four years of factory upgrades. Guojin Securities and other institutions believe that the main investment theme for 2026 has emerged in commodities, supply chains, and the foreign exchange market: with investment exceeding consumption, commodity trading ranges are lengthening, China's manufacturing advantages are becoming more prominent, and industrial resources resonating with AI investment and the global manufacturing recovery are worth paying attention to.

Compared to the dramatic fluctuations in the precious metals market, the cryptocurrency market is generally characterized by caution and gloom, even though Bitcoin broke through $90,000 again today. Most analysts are cautious about the future. For example, analyst Killa believes that although there may be a short-term rebound, the overall trend is still downward, seeking support below $70,000, and judges that this cycle has ended. Ali Charts expressed a similar view, believing that with net capital outflows reaching $4.5 billion and Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows of nearly $1 billion in the past two weeks, any rebound is likely a "dead cat bounce" lacking support from spot demand. A report from 10x Research also points out that current cryptocurrency market trading volume is 30% lower than normal, and the market appears particularly fragile despite its seemingly calm surface. However, there are also bullish voices in the market. Analyst Astronomer, through liquidity analysis, points out that the market has built sufficient short-selling liquidity in the $94,000 to $95,000 range, creating conditions for the price to challenge the $112,000 target. Michaël van de Poppe predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within the next week as funds rotate from the overheated precious metals market to the crypto market. Analyst Plan B, drawing on the historical example of the 2021 bull market experiencing a correction of over 50% before still reaching new highs, suggests that the current pullback may simply be a normal correction within the cycle. Samson Mow has gone even further, boldly predicting a bear market in 2025 and a potential decade-long bull market for Bitcoin. Technically, analysts are closely watching key price levels. Ardi points out that whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the resistance zone of $90,000 to $94,600 and hold the support zone of $80,000 to $86,300 is crucial in determining its future direction.

Despite Ethereum breaking through $3,000 again, market sentiment remains cautious. On-chain analyst Murphy provides a deeper analysis, arguing that the main challenge Ethereum faces isn't the overhead resistance from trapped investors, but rather the overly dispersed profit-taking structure below. He points out that $2,700 is one of the few strong support levels that can generate consensus; a breach of this level could lead to a "vacuum" lacking effective support, with the nearest gap between $1,800 and $2,600. Nevertheless, he observes whales holding over 100,000 ETH adding to their positions near $2,700, exhibiting a "long-term optimistic, short-term cautious" stance. Regarding short-term price action, technical analyst CyrilXBT describes Ethereum as a "winding spring," believing it needs to break through $3,345 to unleash upward momentum. Michaël van de Poppe provides specific key price levels: $2,775 is a crucial support level that cannot be broken, otherwise it could trigger a chain reaction of declines; while a break above the $3,000 resistance could lead to a rapid surge towards $3,650.

The market is currently most concerned about Lighter's TGE airdrop, which is widely expected to take place on December 29th. According to the airdrop details released, the team confirmed that the airdrop will account for 25% of the total supply, and users will receive it directly to their wallets without needing to claim it. The team also clarified that the recent large-scale token transfers were to safeguard the shares held by investors and the team. Meanwhile, the public blockchain project Flow experienced a security incident over the weekend. An attacker exploited a vulnerability in its execution layer to transfer approximately $3.9 million, causing validator nodes to temporarily suspend operations to deploy fixes. The project stated that user balances were unaffected by the incident, and there is no risk of default on the protocol. Additionally, the ZEROBASE token ZBT briefly broke through $0.20, with a 24-hour increase of up to 78%.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 29)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,989 (down 3.25% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $31.45 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,033 (down 9.2% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $28.28 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, ZBT, XRP, ETH, 0G

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.99% / 49.01%

• Sector Performance: Crypto sectors generally rose, with SocialFi rising over 3%, while only Layer 2 sectors saw a slight decline.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 61,926 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $151 million. Among them, $41.87 million was liquidated in BTC, $35.69 million in ETH, and $6.55 million in ZEC.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 26)

• Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $782 million last week, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest net outflow at $435 million.

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $102 million last week, with BlackRock ETHA seeing the largest net outflow of $69.42 million.

• Solana ETF: Net inflow of $13.14 million last week

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $64 million last week

4. Today's Outlook

• The deadline for registration of fund refunds in the "Blue Sky Gree case" is December 29th. Missing this deadline may affect your fund refund.

• Binance will delist FDUSD margin trading pairs such as EIGEN/FDUSD and ARB/FDUSD on December 30th.

• Web3 game studio ChronoForge will shut down on December 30 due to funding shortages.

• Padre: Padre holders will receive PUMPs based on their holdings, and must submit their wallet addresses by December 30th.

• Shanghai Futures Exchange: Effective from the close of trading on December 30, the daily price fluctuation limit for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 15%, and the margin ratio will also be adjusted.

• Guotou Silver LOF: The maximum investment amount for Class A shares has been reduced back to 100 yuan, and subscriptions for Class C shares will be suspended starting December 29th.

• Mayday Vision and Lin Qingxuan are expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 30.

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately 9.92 million tokens at 3:30 PM on December 29th, representing about 2.87% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $256 million.

• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8 PM on December 30th, representing about 5.35% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $11.8 million.

• Slash Vision Labs (SVL) will unlock approximately 234 million tokens at 8:00 AM on December 30th, representing approximately 2.96% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $6.8 million.

• Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 166 million tokens at 8:00 AM on December 30th, representing about 4.17% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $6.7 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Canton Network up 11.3%, Midnight up 10.3%, DoubleZero up 4.7%, Lido DAO up 4.5%, and Zcash up 3.9%.

5. Hot News

• Data: HYPE, SUI, EIGEN and other tokens will see a large unlocking next week, with HYPE unlocking approximately $256 million worth.

• This Week's Preview | The EU, UK, Hong Kong, and other countries and regions implement new regulations related to digital assets; Hyperliquid (HYPE) unlocks approximately $256 million worth of tokens.

• Trend Research is suspected of purchasing another 11,520 ETH, worth $34.93 million.

• Analysis: Over the past nine weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of nearly $6 billion, indicating continued weakness in market liquidity and sentiment.

• Hyperliquid's revenue last week was only $9.16 million, a new low since early May.

• Solana DEX spot trading volume has exceeded $1.7 trillion so far this year, surpassing Bybit to become the second largest.

• A whale withdrew 2,218 ETH, 37.1 million SKY, and 4,772 AAVE from Kraken 7 hours ago.

• Spot silver breaks through $80/ounce, setting a new record.

• Hyperliquid co-founder: 1.2 million HYPE tokens will be distributed to team members on January 6th after unlocking.

• Bubblemaps: Memecoin project ATLAS suspected of insider trading; 68 wallets already hold 47% of the token supply.

• The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for two consecutive weeks, currently at -0.0784%.

• 100 million UNI tokens, worth $596 million, have been burned from the Uniswap treasury.

• Flow suffered a $3.9 million loss due to a hacker attack, but user deposits were unaffected.