Bitcoin price structure shifts as bears seize control below 21‑day channel
Bitcoin’s price structure signal has turned negative and the Bull‑Bear Index shows fading spot demand and rising derivatives pressure, putting BTC in a risk‑off, bear‑leaning regime until signals recover.
- Adler AM’s Structure Shift composite has dropped to −0.5 on a −1 to +1 scale, signaling a bearish regime as Bitcoin price trades at the lower band of its 21‑day Donchian Channel.
- The Bull‑Bear Index shows the bullish regime component near 5% while the fast bearish component turns negative, implying short‑term derivatives positioning now dominates weak spot bids.
- A regime flip back to risk‑on would require the composite to climb above zero alongside a recovery in the bullish component above 5%, otherwise a break of support could accelerate a deeper correction.
Bitcoin price is trading around $86–87,000 today, down roughly 3–4% over the last 24 hours with 24 hour volume in the mid‑$30 to 40 billion range, pointing to a weak, sell‑the‑bounce tape rather than aggressive dip‑buying.
Intraday, BTC is sitting closer to the lower half of its recent 24h range, with derivatives data showing negative short‑term performance and a red 24h return on major dashboards, which fits a risk‑off session inside an already soft regime.
Bitcoin price heading in negative territory
The composite structure signal has moved into negative territory while fast components of the Bull-Bear Index demonstrate increased pressure from derivatives markets, the analysis stated.
The Structure Shift composite indicator, which measures market structure on a scale from -1 to +1, has declined to the -0.5 level, according to the report. Values below zero indicate bearish regime dominance. Bitcoin’s price has dropped to the lower boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel and trades near channel support, the data showed.
The Bull-Bear Index, which separates market pressure into bullish and bearish components, shows the bullish regime component has fallen to 5 percent while the fast bearish component has moved into negative territory, according to the analysis. The fast components reflect short-term derivatives dynamics.
The index configuration indicates short-term momentum favors bearish positioning and spot demand remains insufficient to offset pressure from the futures market, the report stated.
Both indicators point to a structural shift into bearish territory, confirmed by the composite signal and Bull-Bear regime dynamics, according to Adler AM. The analysis noted that negative signal values indicate the combination of structural factors including trend, momentum and positioning has shifted in favor of bears.
The key reference point for a regime change would be a return of the composite signal above zero with simultaneous recovery of the Bull-Bear bullish component above the 5 percent level, the report stated. Until such recovery occurs, the structure remains in risk-off mode, according to the analysis.
The main risk cited in the report is intensified derivatives pressure on a break of support, which could accelerate a correction. From a pure token‑structure standpoint, this is not clean “buy territory”; it is distribution‑to‑range territory where rallies toward prior resistance look more like places to trim risk than to add, unless the data flips. Funding and futures performance are leaning risk‑off on a 24h basis, BTC trades about 25–30% under its euro‑denominated peak from October, and 2025 returns are modestly negative after a 120%+ prior year, all consistent with a maturing, over‑owned asset that is working off excess rather than starting a new impulsive leg.
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