Durante los primeros 10 meses del 2025 el valor de las ventas del sector ha caído 4.8%, su primer tropiezo desde el 2016, excluyendo el 2020 por su carácter atípico.Durante los primeros 10 meses del 2025 el valor de las ventas del sector ha caído 4.8%, su primer tropiezo desde el 2016, excluyendo el 2020 por su carácter atípico.

Envíos automotrices de México caen 14% afectados por aranceles de Trump

2025/11/28 14:15
4 min read
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Las exportaciones automotrices de México disminuyeron 14% a tasa interanual en octubre, a 16,122.1 millones de dólares, afectadas por los aranceles del presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump.

En el acumulado de los 10 primeros meses de 2025, estas ventas tuvieron una caída de 4.8%, a 154,946.5 millones de dólares, desliz que resulta el primero para la variable desde el pandémico 2020, aunque si se hace un lado ese año por su carácter atípico, sería el primero desde el 2016, cuando cayó 3.1 por ciento.

Las exportaciones manufactureras reflejan la marcada integración en las cadenas productivas de ambos países, destacando que los envíos manufactureros presentan un crecimiento anual de 8.6% de enero a octubre.

“Sin embargo, en el rubro automotriz se observa una dinámica diferente, pues registró una contracción de 4.8% en lo que va del año, acentuando los retos que mantienen las exportaciones automotrices mexicanas ante la imposición de aranceles vigentes para la industria”, comentaron Janneth Quiroz Zamora y Kevin Louis Castro, analistas de Monex.

Este deterioro se acentuó en septiembre tras el anuncio de Trump de un arancel de 25.0% a los camiones pesados a partir del 1 de octubre, que si bien se pospuso para el 1 de noviembre, generó cautela entre los importadores estadounidenses.

“Si bien la tasa arancelaria efectiva promedio que pagaron las exportaciones mexicanas dirigidas a Estados Unidos fue de 4.68% en agosto y el 84.5% de ellas cumplió con las reglas del T-MEC (un avance notable frente al 47.8% del mismo periodo de 2024), es probable que los aranceles vigentes de nuestro principal socio comercial permanezcan en los próximos meses, como parte de la estrategia de negociación de Trump: (retirar aranceles a cambio de concesiones de México en la revisión del tratado)”, opinaron los analistas de Monex.

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“Trump no ha abandonado el proteccionismo comercial, por lo que no se pueden descartar nuevos aranceles o el cobro más agresivo de los aranceles anunciados en meses previos”, consideraron Gabriela Siller y Jesús Anacarsis López Flores, analistas de Banco Base.

El 1 de noviembre entraron también en vigor en Estados Unidos los aranceles de 10% para las importaciones de autobuses.

Con datos al mes de agosto, 82.96% de las importaciones de camiones pesados que realiza Estados Unidos (partida 8704) se originó en México.

“Con la entrada en vigor de este arancel se espera que deteriore aún más las exportaciones automotrices a Estados Unidos y el desempeño de la industria de fabricación de equipo de transporte en México”, dijeron los analistas de Banco Base.

Las exportaciones de manufacturas no automotrices explican 63.2% de las exportaciones totales de México de enero a octubre de 2025, subiendo desde 58.1% en el mismo periodo del 2024 y su mayor proporción para un periodo igual desde 2009 (65.0 por ciento).

Para los analistas de Banco Base, esto se debe a que los aranceles que Estados Unidos impuso a México bajo la Ley de Poderes Económicos de Emergencia Internacional (IEEPA), no se están cobrando al pie de la letra y el cumplimiento de México con el T-MEC se mantiene elevado, mientras que los aranceles sectoriales que se aplican al sector automotriz sí se están cobrando.

Por esta razón, las exportaciones automotrices acumulan una contracción en 2025, mientras que las exportaciones manufactureras distintas al sector automotriz siguen creciendo.

El 83.9% de las exportaciones no petroleras entre enero y octubre del 2025 se dirigen a Estados Unidos y acumulan un crecimiento de 8.0%, explicado por las exportaciones distintas al sector automotriz que acumulan un avance de 15.1%, mientras que las exportaciones automotrices acumulan un retroceso de 5.9%, consecuencia de los aranceles impuestos por la Administración Trump.

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