Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 7/7/26 – Taking it to the Bank

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“You win a few, you lose a few. Some get rained out. But you got to dress for all of them.” – Satchel Paige

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Paul Hickey will be appearing on CNBC’s The Exchange today between 1 PM and 1:30 PM. Check it out if you’re near a screen!

It looks like a terrible Tuesday for the market as Nasdaq futures fall more than 1%, while the S&P 500 faces a more modest loss of 0.23%, and futures on the Dow are modestly higher. Despite the weakness in equities, Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year hitting 4.5%.

Crude oil is modestly higher after reports that Iran fired munitions at a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. That raises levels of uncertainty for the region, but with WTI prices not even able to muster a 1% gain, markets don’t seem overly concerned. The fact that gold prices and Bitcoin are also lower by less than 1% also supports that idea.

The weakness in US futures traces back to weakness overnight in Asia, where the Nikkei fell over 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged nearly 5%. The weakness in South Korea was tied to memory stocks, which plunged as Samsung declined close to 10% after the company said earnings wouldn’t be quite as stellar as previously thought.

In Europe, stocks are holding up much better. The STOXX 600 is down just 0.2% as world leaders meet for a NATO Summit. German stocks are the biggest laggards, falling more than 0.7% even as May Industrial Production rose 0.9%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Outside of Germany, most other major benchmarks in the region are modestly higher.

As tech stocks struggle to kick off Q3, Financials have picked up some of the slack. Over the last five trading days (dating back to the start of last week), the sector is up close to 5%. That makes it the top-performing sector, with a rally of a full percentage point higher than the next closest sector (Communication Services), and more than 1.5 percentage points ahead of Consumer Discretionary. As a result of the rally, the sector is more overbought than any other, as it closed more than three standard deviations above its 50-DMA yesterday.

With the rally over the last few days, the Financials sector is back more than three standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, a level it reached back in early June. For more on how the sector has historically performed after reaching such extreme short-term overbought levels, see our Chart of the Day from June 17th (Chart of the Day – Cyclical Surge)

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