Conference Board Index Still in Gloomy Range

Confidence rises to 91.2, but below consensus (94.4), from downwardly revised level. Gallup also rises.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence level (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”; purple at US-Iran War. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Gallup highlights gasoline prices’ impact as a driver of confidence. The Conference Board mentions oil prices and inflation, but notes the deterioration in perceptions of the labor market prospects:

Note the downward revision in May’s number is noticeable:

Figure 2: Conference Board Confidence Index from Jun (blue), from May (red). Source: Conference Board.

Expectations 6 months hence rose, perhaps reflecting the MOU penned during the month.

Source: Conference Board, June release.