A new technical analysis by crypto analyst ChartNerd has highlighted XRP’s long-term market structure, suggesting that a key macro signal has now been triggered.
The update centers on a recurring pattern that ChartNerd believes has consistently identified major cycle lows during previous bear markets.
Sharing a long-term XRP chart, ChartNerd stated that a “Macro Bullish XRP Signal” has fired, emphasizing that the two-week Gaussian Channel (2W GC) has historically captured cyclical behavior across multiple market cycles.
According to the analyst, XRP has repeatedly found support near the indicator’s lower regression band during major downturns, with similar confirmations occurring in 2017, 2020, and 2023.
The chart highlights these previous points of confirmation, labeled “POC Confirmed,” alongside corresponding periods when XRP emerged from extended bear-market conditions. ChartNerd explained that the same signal has now appeared once again, with the latest confirmation occurring in 2026 at approximately $1.04.
The analysis quickly received responses from members of the XRP community, particularly regarding whether the latest signal reduces the likelihood of XRP falling to lower price levels.
One X user, XRPINHO_33, directly questioned whether the new setup means XRP may no longer need to decline toward $0.87.
“So maybe we don’t need to go down to $0.87? Asking for a friend,” the user commented.
The question reflected a broader discussion among XRP traders who have been monitoring downside targets in the $0.90 to $0.70 range as potential areas where XRP could establish a major bottom before beginning a new upward phase.
In response, ChartNerd stressed that the indicator should not be viewed as a guarantee that a market bottom has already formed. Instead, the analyst described it as an important development that deserves close attention, particularly because it may challenge expectations of a deeper decline.
The analyst also cautioned against relying too heavily on any single price target or market scenario. According to ChartNerd, traders should avoid concentrating all expectations surrounding the outcome and instead focus on positioning and risk management.
The latest chart, therefore, presents a constructive long-term outlook for XRP while maintaining a measured perspective. Although ChartNerd sees the 2026 POC confirmation at $1.04 as a significant macro development, the analyst made clear that the signal should be treated as a tool for evaluating probabilities rather than as definitive proof that XRP has already established its final cycle low.
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