Expert flags point where Trump has become 'especially vulnerable' as midterms approach

A political expert flagged one point where President Donald Trump has become "especially vulnerable" as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

Karl Rove, a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush, argued in a new op-ed for The Wall Street Journal that Trump's deal with the Iranian regime could be his greatest weakness as the midterms approach. Rove argued that the deal was likely to disappoint Trump's supporters because it didn't achieve any of Trump's war goals, like preventing Iran from financing the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon or developing a nuclear weapon.

"Maybe it won’t matter to his base that Mr. Trump didn’t achieve regime change and instead embraced negotiations. But it could reduce their enthusiasm," Rove argued. "Republicans, especially MAGA Republicans, see Mr. Trump as a strong leader. Getting outplayed at the negotiating tables by America’s sworn enemy is sure to undermine that."

"Team Trump is especially vulnerable for offering enormous concessions upfront," he continued. "They relaxed sanctions and allowed immediate Iranian oil sales, then said questions about inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, removal of nuclear materials, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz will be settled by mid-August. That’s just before the fall election season starts. Iranians aren’t stupid. They know the president worries about the midterms. They’ll exploit that. Tehran also thinks the U.S. won’t restart the conflict over inspections."

Rove also warned that Trump is on the precipice of making one of his past observations about Iran come true. "Iran never won a war but never lost a negotiation," Rove recalled Trump saying.

"Does he really want to help Iran add another win to that column? The president runs the risk of disappointing supporters without converting critics. That would be a needless political and foreign-policy disaster," Rove argued in the op-ed.