James Carville warns 'earthquake' in red state runoff could determine Trump's fate

Veteran political strategist James Carville flagged an upcoming runoff as a potential "earthquake" on Trump's grip on his base.

During an episode of the Politics War Room, Carville said that the June 27 runoff for a Senate seat in his home state of Louisiana "is a potential huge earthquake" for Trump.

The runoff is part of the race to replace Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who lost in May after Trump endorsed an opposing GOP candidate. Cassidy drew Trump's ire after voting to convict him at his second impeachment trial.

The Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) is running against Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming. Carville argued that a Fleming victory would be a huge blow to Trump's command of the GOP.

"If Fleming were to win, which most people I talked to think is a possibility, that's an earthquake," Carville said. "That's an earthquake. That's in Louisiana. That's a hardcore red state, as you can imagine. That's Trump going all out for one candidate and getting beaten in his own base."

Carville described Fleming as "a real, real right-winger for a long time," and predicted that Fleming would attract "all the people that voted for Clay Higgins (R-LA)," referring to the hardline MAGA congressman.

"All of them, the most intense Clay Higgins people are all going to be for John Fleming, I can tell you," Carville predicted. "Just watch the race Saturday, and if Fleming wins that, I don't know how else you could interpret that but that Trump's just losing his grip on his base."