Meta Builds Prediction Market App Arena to Challenge Polymarket and Kalshi

TLDR

• Meta is developing a new app called “Arena,” a prediction market platform where users forecast events using a points system, not real money.
• The app covers politics, sports, entertainment, and world affairs, and will operate independently from Facebook and Instagram.
• Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly made Arena a top internal priority, though it is still described as experimental.
• Meta tried a similar product called Forecast in 2020 but shut it down in 2022.
• The prediction market space is growing fast, but faces increasing scrutiny from U.S. regulators over gambling concerns and insider trading.

Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is building a new mobile app called Arena that functions like a prediction market platform. Users would be able to forecast the outcomes of real-world events, including elections, sports games, and entertainment. According to the New York Times, which cited two employees with knowledge of the project, the app would use a points-based system rather than real money.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly ordered the development of Arena himself. The New York Times sources described the project as both experimental and a top company priority.

Arena is planned to run separately from Meta’s existing apps, including Facebook and Instagram. That separation sets it apart from Meta’s usual approach of building features into existing platforms.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

Meta Has Tried This Before

This is not Meta’s first attempt at prediction markets. In 2020, the company launched a product called Forecast, which let users predict outcomes tied to current events and the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Meta shut that product down in 2022.

Meta has also dabbled in the broader crypto and financial space. The company announced a stablecoin project called Libra in 2019, later rebranded as Diem. That project was also dropped in 2022. More recently, Meta rolled out USDC payouts for some Facebook creators in Colombia and the Philippines.

If Arena launches, it would compete directly with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have grown quickly in recent years. Polymarket gained wide attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when billions of dollars moved through its platform. Meta reported 3.56 billion daily active users across its apps as of March 2026, giving Arena a potentially massive built-in audience.

Other major platforms have also moved into prediction markets. Coinbase and Kraken have explored the space, and Robinhood has introduced event-based contracts tied to political and economic outcomes.

Regulators Are Watching

The prediction market industry is facing growing legal pressure in the United States. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been engaged in ongoing disputes with state regulators over whether certain event contracts count as gambling.

Lawmakers are also considering legislation to tackle insider trading on prediction platforms. Part of that focus stems from a case involving a U.S. soldier named Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made over $400,000 on a Polymarket contract tied to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke is scheduled to go to trial in December 2026.

Meta has not confirmed an official launch date for Arena, and the company has not ruled out eventually allowing real-money wagering on the platform.

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