Bitcoin Supply Crunch? OTC Balances Drop by 400,000 BTC Since 2022

Bitcoin liquidity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market continues to decline as the BTC OTC balance has fallen steadily since 2022.

Fresh data now suggests that the figure has reached its lowest level on record.

OTC Holdings Plunge

According to the latest report by CryptoQuant, large investors have continued accumulating Bitcoin even as available balances in the OTC market keep shrinking. Historically, OTC balances tend to rise toward the end of a bull market, but the current cycle has followed a different path. In fact, balances have continued to move lower instead of increasing.

CryptoQuant said the amount of Bitcoin held in the OTC market has dropped by around 400,000 BTC after falling from 550,000 BTC to 150,000 BTC while whale buying has persisted. The analytics firm stated that this market cycle differs from previous ones, as whale accumulation has lasted longer and the pace of balance growth during the bull market has been weaker than in earlier cycles.

It said that a stronger market rally may begin once whale accumulation ends. Until then, the record-low OTC balance indicates that accumulation remains strong while liquidity continues to tighten.

Deeper Reset?

Meanwhile, another on-chain signal tracked by CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin has yet to enter a strong recovery phase. The firm’s adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) remains below the crucial level of 1, which means that investors are still spending coins at a loss rather than in profit.

The 30-day average has also failed to reclaim this threshold as demand is not yet strong enough to absorb selling pressure. In previous instances, steady recoveries have tended to begin only after SOPR moves above 1 and holds that level as support.

Long-term investors are taking significantly smaller profits than they did during previous market peaks, as highlighted by the declining Long-Term Holder SOPR. If this trend continues, the market could move closer to the deeper reset phases that have historically appeared near major Bitcoin bottoms.

Despite these weak signals, Michael Saylor-led Strategy disclosed the purchase of 520 BTC for $35 million. Following the latest acquisition, the firm increased its holdings to 847,363 BTC.

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