SpaceX SPCX Price Drops 6%: $15.5M Short, Unlock Wave and Crash Risk

Why Is SpaceX (SPCX) Price Falling Today?

SpaceX token (SPCX) is under heavy selling pressure today. The token fell 6.26% to around $192, and a high-profile short trade is drawing attention across social media.

A trader known for a 98% win rate reportedly opened a $15.5M, 10x leveraged short position on SPCX. The liquidation price for that trade sits at $226.81. If the price goes above that level, the position gets wiped out.

What is the SPCX Price Doing on the 1-Hour and daily charts?

The 1-hour TradingView chart shows the altcoin is trading inside a falling channel. The token made a high of $218 before selling off. It is now hovering around $192, right below a key support zone near $196.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart is at 55.68. That puts it in neutral territory, not oversold. That means more downside is possible before buyers step in strongly.

On the daily chart, the last candle is deep red. It opened at $209.84, hit a high of $213.80, then closed near $191.82, a drop of about 4.95%. Volume came in at 201.72 million, which is elevated. That confirms sellers are serious, not just noise.

Does a Descending Channel Mean SpaceX Token Will Drop Further?

The 1-hour chart shows a clear descending channel. Lower highs and lower lows are forming back-to-back. Until the price breaks above the upper trendline, the structure stays bearish.

The immediate resistance is around $196 to $200. A clean break above that zone could bring $210 back into play. But if sellers stay in control, a move toward $180 or below looks possible.

The daily chart gives a wider picture. From June 12 to June 17, SPCX ran from around $152 all the way to $218. That is a sharp, fast rally. Big, fast moves often correct hard. The current selloff fits that pattern.

When Does the SpaceX Token Unlock Schedule Start and How Much Supply Gets Released?

One of the biggest risks for SPCX long-term is the release schedule. According to data shared by market analysts, only about 5% of SpaceX shares are currently in the float.

Here is the release schedule that has traders worried:

The first big unlock hits on August 11, when ~20% more supply floods the market. That wave could push prices lower if insiders decide to sell. Bearish pressure often arrives when early holders finally get liquidity.

Is SpaceX (SPCX) Repeating the Tesla 2010 IPO Price Crash Pattern?

Some analysts are drawing a comparison between SPCX 2026 and Tesla's 2010 IPO.

Tesla opened strongly after its IPO. It then dropped nearly 70% over the next few months before starting its legendary bull run. The argument is that SpaceX is repeating the same pattern: strong open, early hype buyers, then a shakeout phase.

Same founder. Very similar narrative structure. Whether that plays out the same way depends on factors that charts alone cannot answer, like revenue growth, Starship progress, and macro conditions.

It is worth watching, but pattern-matching is not a guarantee.

What Do SPCX Open Interest and Futures Data Show About Market Sentiment?

Derivatives data paints a mixed picture. Futures volume dropped 14.54% to $7.26 billion. Lower volume often means less conviction in the current move.

But open interest rose 9.12% to $760.47 million. Rising open interest with falling price usually signals more shorts being added. That confirms what the chart is showing.

Long/short ratios at Binance stand above 3.0, and OKX shows ratios above 5.2. More traders are positioned long, but $19.6 million in liquidations happened in the last 24 hours, with $15.22 million of that being long positions wiped out.

That means many buyers got caught off guard by today's selloff.

What Are the Key SPCX Support and Resistance Levels to Watch Now?

Support: $187 to $190 (recent daily low), then $180 psychological support.

Resistance: $196 to $200 (current battle zone), then $210 to $213 (recent highs).

Short liquidation level: $226.81. If the stock pumps to that level, the large short gets liquidated, which could trigger a short squeeze.

Bullish scenario: Price holds $190, breaks above $200, and reclaims $210+.

Bearish scenario: Price loses $187 support, slides toward $170 to $175 ahead of the August unlock wave.

Will SpaceX (SPCX) Price Recover or Drop Further Before August Unlocks?

SPCX is at a decision point. The chart structure is bearish in the short term. The unlock schedule adds long-term supply pressure. And a large leveraged short is hanging overhead.

That said, the token still has strong narrative momentum. SpaceX, as a company, is one of the most talked-about space ventures globally. Retail interest is high.

The next two to three weeks before the August 11 unlock will be critical. If the stock holds above $190 and flips $200 to support, the recovery could be real. If it fails, the unlock wave could accelerate the slide.

Nothing is guaranteed in crypto. Both outcomes are on the table.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.