Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reach Record Share Of Supply As Markets Await Warsh’s First FOMC Decision

K33 Research, the research arm of digital asset firm K33, has released a new market review highlighting signs of stabilization in the cryptocurrency market following a period of weakness. According to the report, Bitcoin recovered approximately 6% over the past week after recording two consecutive weeks of double-digit declines that pushed the asset below its 200-week moving average and to new lows for the current market cycle.

Analysts attributed the improvement in market conditions partly to a slowdown in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, which had been a major source of recent selling pressure. Trading activity also retreated toward some of the lowest levels recorded this year, reflecting a market environment in which long-term holders appear reluctant to sell while potential buyers remain cautious. K33 noted that similar patterns have historically emerged during the later stages of Bitcoin bear markets.

The report also pointed to several major macroeconomic and financial developments. SpaceX completed what was described as the largest initial public offering on record, with its valuation reaching $2.5 trillion after gaining 28% during its first two trading sessions. At the same time, the United States and Iran announced an interim peace agreement, while investors shifted their focus toward the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The meeting will mark the first policy decision under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with interest rates widely expected to remain unchanged despite lingering expectations for additional policy tightening later in the year.

Derivatives Activity Remains Subdued

Activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets continued to show signs of caution. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures increased by nearly 10,000 BTC during the week but remained below levels seen throughout 2024 and 2025. Market positioning also remained defensive, reflected in the relatively low annualized Bitcoin basis, which briefly fell to 1.8% before recovering to 4.4%.

Perpetual futures markets displayed similarly cautious sentiment. Trading volumes declined and funding rates remained negative for a third consecutive day, indicating reduced appetite for leveraged long positions. At the same time, open interest remained stable, suggesting that market conditions continue to be relatively balanced and reducing the likelihood of large-scale liquidation events. K33 said these conditions support the possibility of continued Bitcoin price consolidation in the near term.

Long-Term Holders Maintain Accumulation Trend

The report highlighted a notable shift in on-chain activity compared with previous market cycles. During the 2024–2025 period, substantial amounts of older Bitcoin were reactivated and likely sold as prices approached record highs. In contrast, 2026 has seen significantly lower activity among coins held for two years or longer.

By June 6, approximately 218,421 BTC from older holdings had been reactivated, a figure substantially below levels recorded in recent years. According to K33, this suggests that long-term investors remain less inclined to sell despite market weakness, reducing overall on-chain selling pressure.

Supporting this trend, the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached 79% of the circulating supply, representing a new record high. The report noted that this level of accumulation is often associated with the later stages of a bear market and may signal improving conditions for a longer-term market recovery.

Ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, K33 said investors will be closely monitoring comments from Warsh as well as updated economic projections from the Federal Reserve. With Bitcoin maintaining a relatively strong correlation with the S&P 500, any changes in monetary policy expectations could have a significant influence on cryptocurrency markets, particularly during periods of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

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