XRP Crashes 68% From Peak: Could the Cycle Low Be Near?

Key Takeaways

• XRP has collapsed 68.5% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, currently hovering around $1.14
• Critical support at $1.27 has been breached and transformed into a resistance barrier
• Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies $0.90 as a crucial level for potential long-term accumulation
• Blockchain metrics present a contradictory picture: whale holdings are increasing while tokenized asset activity fell 59%
• Market technicals such as RSI beneath 31 and a declining weekly pattern indicate additional losses may occur

XRP has plummeted to approximately $1.14, marking its weakest price point in close to 19 months. The cryptocurrency has experienced a devastating 68.5% decline from its record peak of $3.65 established in July 2025.

The selloff has intensified in recent periods. XRP shed 11.8% during the previous seven days and approximately 18.9% throughout the last month.

The psychological barrier at $1 has emerged as a critical focal point. Market participants widely regard this threshold as the subsequent crucial support area should present levels fail to stabilize.

XRP’s price history is characterized by sharp corrections. Throughout the previous five-year period, the token has experienced four distinct pullbacks exceeding 40% within six-month timeframes. The ongoing 46% six-month retreat aligns with this established pattern.

Technical strategist ChartNerd, who accurately predicted the last three cyclical bottoms using Gaussian Channel analysis, indicates XRP bear cycles have typically extended between 400 to 790 days with corrections ranging from 85% to 96%. He observes the present downturn has only persisted approximately 350 days and represents a 71% drop from the July 2025 summit. His framework suggests the current cycle base lies between $0.70 and $0.90, with a potential floor formation occurring before the year concludes.

Chart Analysis Suggests Additional Weakness

XRP collapsed beneath the $1.27 threshold, a price point that formerly provided support and currently functions as resistance above. A temporary bounce toward $1.14 occurred alongside a 44% decline in transaction volume, which market technicians frequently interpret as fragile buyer interest.

The 14-period RSI has dropped beneath 31, positioning XRP within oversold conditions. The weekly MACD indicator continues trading below the zero line. The Aroon Down metric registers 85.71% compared to an Aroon Up reading of merely 35.71%, demonstrating persistent bearish momentum.

The 200-period moving average stands at $1.6179, representing a substantial overhead target. A confirmed daily close beneath $1.10 may drive XRP toward $1.09, and deterioration below that mark would expose the asset to sub-dollar valuations.

Prominent cryptocurrency chartist Ali Martinez has highlighted $0.90 as his primary monitoring threshold. He stated on June 7: “If price gets there, I think it could offer a compelling long-term buying opportunity.” Martinez’s observation reflects expanding analyst focus on the $0.90 to $1.00 region as a potential zone where strategic accumulation may commence.

Blockchain Metrics: Contradictory Indicators

Not every data series paints a pessimistic picture. Over 25 million XRP tokens were withdrawn from centralized exchanges recently, a movement generally interpreted as accumulation behavior. Binance deposit flows registered their minimum level of 2026 during this week. Large-holder wallet addresses climbed to an unprecedented 332,230.

Nevertheless, fundamental blockchain activity for the XRP Ledger has deteriorated. Transfer volume of tokenized assets on XRPL plummeted 59% across 30 days to $54.1 million. Aggregate tokenized assets hosted on XRPL declined 11% to $384.5 million. XRPL’s proportion of the broader tokenized asset ecosystem remains slightly above 1%.

Stablecoin transaction volume on XRPL surged 118% to $4.5 billion, while the count of RWA participants on the network skyrocketed 275% to 105 holders.

The upcoming significant macroeconomic catalyst arrives with US CPI inflation data scheduled for June 10, 2026.

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