Bitcoin (BTC) Could Plunge 70% Before Hitting $500K, Atlas Capital CEO Predicts

Key Takeaways

• Investment firm CEO Reza Bundy forecasts Bitcoin may plunge 70% to a range of $26,000–$30,000 over the next half-year
• Bundy’s business partner is economist Nouriel Roubini, nicknamed “Dr. Doom” for accurately forecasting the 2008 financial collapse
• The CEO contends Bitcoin has underperformed as an inflation protection tool and behaves more like technology equities
• Despite short-term bearishness, Bundy projects Bitcoin could eventually hit $150,000–$500,000 based on various economic scenarios
• The firm manages the USAF ETF on Nasdaq but currently excludes Bitcoin from its portfolio

Reza Bundy, who leads investment advisory firm Atlas Capital, has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could shed up to 70% of its current valuation within the coming six-month period. His projected price floor sits between $26,000 and $30,000.

Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference held in Paris, Bundy shared these projections with CoinDesk journalists. He emphasized that should equity markets experience even half the destruction witnessed during the 2008 financial meltdown, Bitcoin would likely suffer double that impact.

When Bundy delivered these remarks, bitcoin was changing hands near $63,000, representing a year-to-date decline approaching 28%.

The Source of This Cautionary Forecast

Bundy established Atlas Capital alongside renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, who earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” for his prescient warning about the 2008 subprime lending catastrophe. Roubini has maintained a consistently critical stance toward Bitcoin throughout the years.

The economist has characterized Bitcoin as a “pseudo-asset class” and dismissed it as purely “speculative” without meaningful real-world applications. He contrasts it unfavorably with traditional economic safeguards such as gold.

While Bundy aligns with Roubini’s bearish short-term assessment, the two diverge significantly on Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Near-Term Headwinds Versus Extended Horizon Projections

Bundy maintains that Bitcoin has proven inadequate as a protection against inflation, instead tracking closely with technology sector equities. This perspective mirrors observations from billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, who disclosed selling the majority of his Bitcoin holdings after it disappointed as a hedge during periods when the dollar weakened.

Yet the near-term pessimism doesn’t reflect Bundy’s complete outlook. He maintains that Bitcoin could eventually ascend to anywhere between $150,000 and $500,000 over the longer term, contingent upon which of four distinct economic trajectories materializes.

In a “Controlled Expansion” environment, which receives a 40% probability in his framework, Bitcoin might appreciate to $150,000–$250,000. Should “Fiscal Dominance” emerge—characterized by governments expanding money supply to service obligations—he envisions Bitcoin ascending to $250,000–$500,000. This outcome carries a 25% likelihood in his analysis.

A “Global Conflict” pathway, assigned 20% probability, would trigger immediate market turmoil but could ultimately validate Bitcoin’s role as a politically neutral store of value. A “Deflationary Recession” scenario, weighted at 15%, would suppress Bitcoin’s price until monetary authorities introduce fresh liquidity.

Bundy’s extended-horizon confidence stems from Bitcoin’s foundational purpose: serving as an alternative to fiat currencies undermined by sovereign debt burdens and central bank monetary expansion.

The Firm’s Present Investment Approach

Atlas Capital manages an exchange-traded fund trading under ticker symbol USAF on the Nasdaq exchange. The vehicle employs artificial intelligence-powered algorithms to distribute capital across various assets including precious metals, agricultural commodities, property, and military technology. The fund currently manages approximately $18 million in net assets and has delivered 8.7% returns since inception.

Bitcoin remains absent from the fund’s current holdings. Bundy explained he prefers to await the anticipated market pullback before determining whether to incorporate the cryptocurrency.

Bundy also disclosed intentions to tokenize the fund on public blockchain networks within the coming month.

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