Hyperliquid (HYPE) Tumbles After Arthur Hayes Exits $18M Stake Despite $150 Forecast

Key Takeaways

• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes liquidated 247,334 HYPE tokens valued at approximately $18 million after forecasting a $150 price level
• The token retreated from all-time highs around $75 to approximately $67 in the wake of Hayes’ announcement
• Hayes pointed to escalating energy costs, imminent AI company listings, and macroeconomic timing concerns as motivations for his exit
• Analyst Markus Thielen from 10xResearch cautioned that the token’s surge appeared excessive, with HYPE valued at approximately 25x anticipated fee income
• Nevertheless, HYPE maintains a 166% gain year-to-date, while Hyperliquid captured a record 6.63% of worldwide perpetual futures trading volume in May

The HYPE token from Hyperliquid experienced a significant decline following an announcement by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes that he had liquidated his complete holdings, mere days after projecting the asset could climb to $150.

According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, Hayes offloaded 247,334 HYPE tokens for roughly $18.02 million. The transaction contributed to HYPE’s descent from record peaks near $75 to the $67 range.

In a post on X, Hayes outlined three primary factors behind his decision: escalating energy costs linked to Iranian geopolitical tensions, three significant AI company public offerings anticipated before the third quarter, and apprehensions that market peaks could materialize between the present and September. He indicated a comprehensive rationale would appear in a forthcoming piece titled “Reality Test.”

Valuation Stretched Beyond Fundamentals

However, at the $75 level, HYPE commanded roughly 25 times forecasted fee revenue — approaching its most expensive valuation over the past twelve months. Thielen additionally observed that protocol revenue remains beneath previous highs, and a substantial token unlock scheduled for June may introduce additional downward pressure.

Despite near-term headwinds, HYPE maintains a 166% appreciation since the beginning of the year.

Exchange Metrics Reach New Milestones

Hyperliquid’s underlying business metrics continued strengthening even as token prices corrected. May perpetual futures trading volume achieved a landmark 6.63% share of aggregate global centralized exchange perpetual volume. Volume measured against Binance climbed to 14.4%, establishing another record.

Institutional adoption momentum continues building. Grayscale’s Hyperliquid ETF, designated as HYPG, is preparing to launch with a 0.29% management fee. Previously launched ETFs THYP and BHYP have collectively attracted $141 million in aggregate net inflows. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley verified that more than 7.7 million HYPE tokens have been delegated to Bitwise validators.

From a technical perspective, HYPE’s critical support level resides at $59–$60. A decisive break above the $83–$95 resistance band would be required to reestablish the upward trajectory toward $110–$130.

Whale positioning metrics revealed the spread between long and short exposures narrowing to merely $0.01 billion, indicating major holders may be adjusting their allocations.

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