Silver Faces Supply Deficits as TD Securities Upgrades Forecasts on Gold Strength

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Silver Faces Supply Deficits as TD Securities Upgrades Forecasts on Gold Strength

TD Securities has raised its price outlook for silver and platinum group metals (PGMs), citing persistent supply deficits and the expected continued strength of gold. The updated forecasts cover the next two quarters and extend into the longer term, reflecting an improving global economic backdrop that the bank believes will support industrial and investment demand for precious metals.

Supply deficits and upgraded forecasts

The revised projections from TD Securities come as silver markets grapple with structural deficits. The bank notes that mine supply has struggled to keep pace with demand from both industrial users—particularly in solar panel manufacturing and electronics—and investors seeking a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. The deficit is expected to persist through 2025 and into 2026, providing a fundamental tailwind for prices.

For PGMs, the outlook is similarly constructive. TD Securities has upgraded its forecasts for platinum and palladium, pointing to recovering automotive demand and tightening supply from major producing regions. The bank acknowledges near-term correction risks similar to those facing gold, but views any pullback as a buying opportunity given the underlying supply-demand dynamics.

Gold strength as a catalyst

TD Securities explicitly ties its upgraded silver and PGM forecasts to gold’s projected strength. The bank expects gold to remain elevated, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and a weaker U.S. dollar environment. Historically, silver has tended to amplify gold’s moves, both on the upside and downside. TD Securities believes this correlation will continue, but that silver’s additional industrial demand driver gives it asymmetric upside potential.

The bank also highlights that the improving global economy—particularly in manufacturing and green energy transitions—provides a demand base for silver and PGMs that gold does not share. This dual nature, part monetary metal and part industrial commodity, is a key reason for the upgraded long-term view.

What this means for investors

For market participants, the TD Securities report reinforces the case for holding precious metals as part of a diversified portfolio. The upgraded forecasts suggest that even after the strong rally seen in 2024, silver and PGMs still offer value relative to gold. However, the bank warns that short-term volatility should be expected, and that positions should be sized accordingly.

The report also underscores the importance of monitoring supply-side developments. Any disruption to mine output in top-producing countries like Mexico, Peru, or South Africa could accelerate price gains, while a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown could dampen industrial demand and cap upside.

Conclusion

TD Securities’ upgraded forecasts for silver and PGMs reflect a confluence of structural deficits, gold strength, and an improving global economy. While near-term correction risks remain, the bank’s long-term outlook is increasingly bullish. For readers, the key takeaway is that silver and PGMs are not merely derivatives of gold—they have their own supply-demand stories that warrant attention.

FAQs

Q1: Why is TD Securities upgrading its silver forecast?
TD Securities cites persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand (especially from solar and electronics), and the expected continued strength of gold as key reasons for the upgrade.

Q2: What are the main risks to the upgraded forecast?
Near-term correction risks similar to gold, a potential economic slowdown reducing industrial demand, and any unexpected increase in mine supply are the primary downside risks.

Q3: How does silver differ from gold in this outlook?
Silver has dual demand drivers: investment (like gold) and industrial use (solar, electronics, automotive). This gives it additional upside potential but also makes it more sensitive to economic cycles.

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