Take-Two (TTWO) Stock: One Analyst Thinks the 13-Year Wait for GTA 6 Is About to Pay Off

TLDR

• Piper Sandler initiated Take-Two with an Overweight rating and $280 price target
• Analyst sees ~22% upside from current levels, with TTWO trading around $219
• GTA 6 is forecast to sell more than 35 million units in its first fiscal year
• Piper argues the “buy the hype, sell the news” narrative is outdated for Take-Two
• The firm forecasts FY2028 revenue of $8.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.66

Take-Two Interactive got a fresh vote of confidence Monday as Piper Sandler kicked off coverage with an Overweight rating and a $280 price target. With TTWO trading around $219, that implies roughly 22% upside from current levels.

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc., TTWO

The thesis is straightforward: Grand Theft Auto VI.

Analyst James Callahan at Piper Sandler argues that GTA 6, scheduled for a November 2026 launch, could be one of the biggest entertainment releases ever. It has been more than 13 years since GTA 5 hit shelves in 2013, and the firm says that gap has built up a level of demand it calls “unprecedented.”

Piper estimates GTA 6 could sell more than 35 million units in its first fiscal year, with room for even more if the title outperforms expectations.

The Streaming Angle

One part of the bull case that is easy to overlook: the live streaming ecosystem didn’t exist when GTA 5 launched. Creators like IShowSpeed and Kai Cenat now reach tens of millions of viewers, and Piper sees platforms like Twitch as a powerful, essentially free marketing engine for the game.

That’s a real change from 2013, and the firm thinks it could push GTA 6’s reach well beyond the traditional gamer audience.

Mobile and Independent Status

Beyond GTA, Piper also points to improving trends in Take-Two’s mobile division. Since acquiring Zynga in 2022, the company has seen stronger engagement from titles like Toon Blast and Match Factory!. The adoption of advertising technology from AppLovin is also helping monetization, and the firm thinks Wall Street is still underestimating mobile’s growth trajectory.

There is also a scarcity argument. After Microsoft absorbed Activision Blizzard and other big gaming deals reshaped the industry, Take-Two stands out as one of the last independent large-cap publishers. It owns GTA, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K outright, with no parent company above it.

Piper believes that independence, combined with recurring revenue from online services and in-game purchases, warrants a valuation premium.

One concern investors often raise is that the stock will sell off after GTA 6 launches, a classic “buy the hype, sell the news” setup. Piper pushes back on that. The firm notes Take-Two’s business is now propped up by recurring spending from online play and microtransactions, not just one-time game sales. It also points out that historically, Take-Two stock has often outperformed the broader market in the 12 months following a major launch.

On the numbers, Piper sees fiscal 2028 revenue reaching approximately $8.6 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.66. The $280 target is based on roughly 32 times that earnings estimate.

The firm adds that Take-Two’s launch-year guidance has historically been conservative, leaving room for upside if GTA 6 hits harder than expected.

Near-term catalysts Piper is watching include a third GTA 6 trailer, the start of marketing campaigns, and pre-order data.

TTWO was trading at approximately $219, down around 3.5% on the day.

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