XRP News: Traders Hit 47% Losses: Why Santiment Calls This a Historic Buy Signal

In XRP news today, on-chain data from Santiment, the crypto data intelligence firm, shows that active XRP traders over the past 30 days are sitting on average realized losses of 47%, a reading so deep that it has pushed XRP’s 30-day MVRV ratio to its lowest level since December 2020.

XRP is currently trading near $1.30, down roughly -5% over the past week and more than 60% below its late-2024 peak, as broader crypto rotation has amplified selling pressure on short-term holders.

Santiment logged XRP’s largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022 during this period, a figure that goes well beyond sentiment; it reflects actual holders crystallizing losses at scale, with realized losses reaching an estimated -$1.93Bn in the sharpest such event since November 2022.

Is this the kind of seller-exhaustion event that has historically preceded multi-month XRP relief rallies, or has the macro and institutional backdrop of early 2026 changed the conditions under which that historical signal operated, leaving further downside ahead before any structural recovery takes hold?

XRP News: What Realized Loss Data and the MVRV Ratio Actually Reveal

The MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) measures XRP’s current trading price against the average price at which coins last moved on-chain. A sharply negative 30-day MVRV indicates that many coins were acquired at higher prices, leaving holders underwater.

This situation reduces the pool of sellers, as those who haven’t sold tend to have longer-term horizons or stronger conviction, leading to less sell-side pressure.

Currently, Santiment identifies XRP as being in an “extreme undervalued zone,” but cautions that weak MVRV readings don’t guarantee a price reversal. They may suggest that panic selling has largely subsided, making the asset more sensitive to external factors.

Santiment also notes that XRP’s bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio has narrowed to 1.1-to-1, indicating elevated fear, but not yet reaching maximum pessimism, with the prior low of 0.74 serving as a historical panic reference point.

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Why the December 2020 Comparison Changes the Analytical Framework

Santiment designates the current loss depth for XRP as ‘historic,’ indicating that it is rare enough to allow only a few direct historical comparisons.

The last time XRP’s 30-day MVRV reached similar negative levels was in December 2020, 39 months before the recent realized-loss milestone flagged by Santiment. Following that December spike, XRP rallied +114% over the subsequent eight months.

However, it’s important to note that ‘historic’ pain levels can deepen before a reversal occurs. The conditions in December 2020, marked by aggressive monetary expansion and growing retail crypto adoption, do not align neatly with the macro environment in mid-2026.

This is where institutional interest is selectively concentrated. Thus, while the capitulation signal is noteworthy, a macro tailwind similar to past rallies has yet to be confirmed.

XRP Price Structure: The Levels That Define What Happens Next

In other XRP news, inflows of $1.77M into Ripple ETFs yesterday suggest some institutional interest, but they aren’t enough to offset selling pressure without significant price movement.

Bull Case: If XRP reclaims $1.40 on volume within 30 days, overhead resistance could shift to support, aided by positive external catalysts, such as favorable SEC news. Price targets between $2.50 and $3.50 become relevant only after this level is cleared.

Base Case: XRP may consolidate in the $1.25–$1.35 range for 4–8 weeks, stabilizing on-chain loss pressure in the absence of a clear catalyst. Gradual recovery in MVRV may improve sentiment, though the bullish-to-bearish ratio remains low.

Bear Case: A close below $1.250 on high volume would indicate ongoing capitulation, and deteriorating sentiment could extend bearish conditions, undermining any historical analogs.

For a bullish signal, on-chain loss pressure must stabilize before positive catalysts emerge, such as regulatory developments or increased institutional inflows.

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