Is Bitcoin Building a Base Before Its Next Big Move Toward $88K?

• Bitcoin’s move above $81K kept the unfilled $84K CME gap and $80.6K support in focus.
• Loukas said Bitcoin’s long rebound may signal base building rather than a brief countertrend rally.
• Whales bought 50,000 BTC in April while macro risks and the Fed meeting stayed in focus.

Bitcoin has gained more than 20% over the past 30 days as market conditions improved and geopolitical tensions eased. The move pushed BTC near the $81,000 level for the first time since February, signaling renewed buying interest.

Selling pressure returned soon after the breakout attempt. Still, the move placed Bitcoin near a key range as traders watch whether momentum could carry the asset toward higher resistance.

Bitcoin’s 88-Day Move May Signal 2026 Cycle Low

Analyst Bob Loukas said Bitcoin is getting close to the end of a natural countertrend move in a bear market. In an X post, he pointed to the $85,000 to $88,000 area as the zone now coming into focus.

Loukas noted that this move looks different from a typical countertrend rally. He said such moves are usually sharper and shorter, while the current structure appears more like base building over a longer period.

According to Loukas, Bitcoin has now spent 88 days since its low. He said no countertrend move to a local high has taken nearly this long.

That pattern could point to a time-based cycle low developing over 2026. Under that view, the next major pullback could act as a retest of the bear range rather than a simple reversal.

BTC Eyes $84K Gap as Whales Accumulate BTC

Another analyst, Ted, said BTC broke above $81,000. He added that the CME gap around $84,000 has not yet been filled.

Ted said Bitcoin could move toward that gap if it holds above $80,600. A failure to stay above $80,000, however, could open the way for a correction toward the $77,000 to $78,000 range.

Source: X

However, in an X post, Schiff said current BTC demand is being driven by fixed-income investors buying STRC to capture an 11.5% yield.

Schiff argued that the yield depends on an increasing number of investors buying in. He said more participation creates a need for even more buyers to keep the structure going.

On-chain data presented a stronger accumulation signal. According to Santiment, whale wallets holding between 1 and 10,000 BTC bought 50,000 BTC in April.

That purchase was worth around $3.75 billion based on the figures provided. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC accounted for most of the buying.

Source: Santiment

Bitcoin Faces Macro Pressure Ahead of FOMC

Macroeconomic factors remain part of the market picture. Investors expect the war with Iran to end soon, after repeated comments from President Trump.

Oil prices, however, climbed above $100 again as peace talks reached an impasse this week. That move kept geopolitical risk in focus while Bitcoin traded near important technical levels.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting is also scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts expect no change to the federal funds rate at the meeting.

Related: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance as Analysts Flag Key Breakout Levels