Trading expert sets date when Palantir stock will crash to $115

A trading analyst has projected that shares of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) could decline in the coming weeks, potentially extending the recent bearish run.

In a TradingView post on April 28, analyst TradingShot said the stock’s broader bearish structure remains intact despite intermittent rebounds.

The call builds on a longer-term outlook first outlined on March 13, when the analyst anticipated a significant pullback following a prior rally.

According to the outlook, Palantir remains in a defined channel down, signaling sustained bearish pressure, while trading below its 100-day moving average since January 16, a sign of weakening short-term momentum. 

TradingShot sees $115.50 as the next downside target, likely around May 20, marking an approximately 29% drop from the latest lower high and mirroring the first bearish leg of the pattern.

The move aligns with key technical levels, including the 100-week moving average, a major long-term support zone, and the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which previously held during the second bearish leg. 

Meanwhile, repeated failures near the 200-day moving average and a softening RSI continue to reinforce the downside outlook.

PLTR stock price struggles 

Notably, the outlook aligns with Palantir’s performance in 2026, where the stock has fallen nearly 16% year-to-date, trading at $141 as of press time. This marks a sharp pullback from earlier highs near $200 and its all-time high above $207.

The weakness stems primarily from the company’s elevated valuation, with the stock trading at over 220 times trailing earnings and a market capitalization exceeding $340 billion. 

Investors have rotated out of high-growth AI and software stocks amid rising interest rate concerns, broader market volatility, and fears of AI disruption from simpler, lower-cost competitors.

Comments from investor Michael Burry highlighting rivals’ gains have added to selling pressure, while ongoing insider selling has also weighed on sentiment.

Despite the pressure, Palantir continues to show solid fundamentals. The company is securing major deals, including a $300 million USDA contract, while its U.S. commercial segment is posting triple-digit growth.

Management has guided for 2026 revenue of about $7.18 billion to $7.2 billion, representing roughly 61% year-over-year growth, with U.S. commercial revenue expected to exceed $3.1 billion.

Q1 2026 results are due after the close on May 4, with estimates of approximately $0.29 in EPS and $1.54 billion in revenue. A strong earnings beat and upbeat commentary on commercial demand and AIP adoption could act as a near-term catalyst.