IREN Stock Slides as Bernstein Cuts Target to $100 From $125

TLDR

• IREN dropped 4.5% intraday to $48.36, with volume roughly 14% below its daily average.
• Q earnings came in at ($0.44) EPS vs ($0.07) expected; revenue of $184.7M missed the $229.6M estimate.
• Quarterly revenue was down 23.1% year-over-year.
• Bernstein cut its price target from $125 to $100, but kept IREN as its top pick among AI-focused Bitcoin miners.
• Analyst consensus remains “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $70.08, despite the mixed sentiment.

IREN dropped 4.5% on Monday, touching a low of $47.66 before settling at $48.36. The prior close was $50.64. Volume came in at around 32.9 million — about 14% below the stock’s average daily volume of 38 million.

IREN Limited, IREN

The sell-off followed a quarterly earnings report that fell well short of expectations. IREN posted a loss of ($0.44) per share for the quarter, against an analyst consensus of ($0.07). That’s a miss of ($0.37) per share.

Revenue also disappointed. The company brought in $184.7 million, well below the expected $229.6 million. Quarterly revenue was down 23.1% compared to the same period last year.

On top of the earnings miss, Bernstein SocGen cut its price target on IREN from $125 to $100. Despite the cut, the firm kept IREN as its top pick in the AI-focused Bitcoin mining space.

Bernstein pointed to IREN’s GPU buildout as the reason for confidence. The company has contracted 150,000 GPUs, which could support annualized recurring revenue of $3.7 billion once fully deployed — targeted for Q1 calendar 2027.

Half of that GPU capacity is locked in with Microsoft under a five-year contract. The rest is available for new customers and on-demand arrangements.

IREN has funded 95% of the $5.8 billion capital expenditure tied to the Microsoft deal. Funding came through Microsoft prepayments and a GPU-backed term facility, at a cost below 4% per annum.

Analyst Ratings Remain Mixed But Lean Positive

The broader analyst picture is cautiously optimistic. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 13 have a Buy rating, four Hold, and two Sell. The consensus target sits at $70.08 — a “Moderate Buy.”

Recent moves include Cantor Fitzgerald trimming its target to $61 while keeping an “Overweight” rating. HC Wainwright flipped from Sell to Buy back in January, setting an $80 target. Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed a Buy with a $70 target in February.

IREN’s stock has a beta of 4.30, so big moves in either direction are par for the course here. Its 50-day moving average stands at $41.45, while the 200-day sits at $47.38.

Institutional Investors Still Buying

Despite the pullback, institutional money has been moving in. Marex Group increased its stake by over 14,000% in Q4. BNP Paribas initiated a new position worth roughly $158.7 million. Clear Street Group also entered with a stake valued at around $137 million.

Situational Awareness LP boosted its position by 20.5%, now holding over 8.7 million units worth $328.6 million. Institutional ownership stands at 41.08% of the company’s total stock.

IREN has also expanded its ordinary share offering program to $6 billion, having already raised $1 billion through the sale of 66.7 million shares. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi are managing the equity offering.

The company recently agreed to purchase over 50,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs, bringing its total fleet to 150,000 units. It also operates a 1.6GW campus in Oklahoma.

The stock is down from its 52-week high of $76.87, but has gained 674% over the past 12 months.

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