Why a Democratic Senate takeover has become a 'real possibility': NYT

There’s little question the House of Representatives is in play, but up until now, experts weren’t as optimistic about Democratic control of the Senate. That’s changing — with the possibility of Democrats taking the Senate now a “real possibility.”

“In today’s polarized era, Democrats would need everything to break their way” to take control of the upper chamber, The New York Times reports. “So far, everything is breaking the Democrats’ way.”

A multitude of variables are lining up in Democrats’ favor for a congressional “Democratic tsunami,” the Times says.

President Donald Trump’s popularity is at his second-term all-time low. Inflation is up, some experts are warning about unemployment, and consumer sentiment just hit a historic low. Trump’s coalition, some critics say, is in danger, his war in Iran, despite his protestations, does not appear to be going well, and some voters are worried a protracted military incursion may be a possibility.

Democrats appear to have done the groundwork necessary to retake control of the Senate.

Citing “strong candidate recruitment” as a top reason Democrats could retake the Senate, the Times reports that “Democrats are tied or ahead in four Republican-held seats, polls show.” Democrats only need to hold on to their current number of seats and flip four more to win the majority.

The Times points to several candidates who could help create a blue Senate: James Talarico in Texas, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Mary Peltola in Alaska, and Graham Platner in Maine.

“A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”

The Times notes that in four GOP-controlled Senate races, Democrats are tied or ahead in the polls. In Maine and North Carolina, the likely Democratic nominees are ahead. In Ohio and Alaska, Democrats have recruited strong candidates, and there are “signs” Republicans could be in danger in both Iowa and Texas.

“Even if Mr. Trump successfully negotiates a quick end to the war in Iran, it will be hard for his standing to improve much by November,” the Times acknowledges. “His ratings have been in steady decline for about a year, and the war has only added to the weight of persistent inflation. If the conflict isn’t resolved quickly, the risks are enormous: Historically, quagmire abroad and rising prices at home are the ingredients of a failed presidency.”

Democrats have an “enormous advantage” among voters who turn out in the midterm elections. In short, if “a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to ride it to Senate control.”

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