Grayscale Says 59% Altcoins Slide Signals Setup

TLDR

• Altcoins have declined 59% from their mid 2025 peak and now trade near prior breakout levels.
• Grayscale rebased its FTSE Russell index to 100 in 2023 and identified 150 as a key support level.
• The index gained about 4% in March while the S&P 500 fell roughly 5% during the same period.
• Grayscale filed an amended Form S-1 for the proposed Bittensor TAO Trust on April 2.
• The filing carries registration number 333-292418 and lists Davis Polk as legal counsel.

Grayscale Research states that altcoins have fallen 59% from cycle highs and now trade near prior breakout levels. The firm released new data and filed regulatory paperwork on April 2 to support its position. The update centers on pricing trends, index data, and a new trust tied to the TAO token.

Altcoins Slide 59% as Index Tests Key Baseline

The Grayscale index, built with FTSE Russell data, was rebased to 100 at the start of 2023. Altcoins traded between 100 and 150 through 2023 and formed a base range. The index later climbed from 150 to about 390 by mid-2025, reflecting a 160% rally.

However, the index then dropped from 390 to roughly 165 by March 31, 2026. That move erased most gains from the 2024-2025 rally and marked a 59% drawdown. Prices now sit about 2% above cycle lows and near the 150 level.

Grayscale identifies 150 as the floor that launched the prior rally. The firm referenced that level in a research note dated April 2. The note stated that altcoins trade near the lower end of a three-year range.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, wrote that current prices appear historically low. He stated, “We can’t be sure crypto valuations have bottomed, but recent price action looks encouraging.” He cited March performance data to support that view.

During March, the Grayscale Crypto Sectors Index gained about 4%. In contrast, the S&P 500 fell roughly 5% during the same period. Pandl argued that divergence may reflect oversold conditions and stable fundamentals.

He also reported that the altcoin basket stands 59% below its highs. He added that prices sit only 2% above cycle lows. The firm described this level as potentially attractive.

Grayscale Advances TAO Trust Filing

On April 2, Grayscale filed Amendment No. 1 to Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing relates to the proposed Grayscale Bittensor Trust. The trust would provide regulated exposure to TAO, the native token of the Bittensor network.

The registration statement carries the number 333-292418. Davis Polk & Wardwell serves as legal counsel for the filing. The amendment marks progress toward launching a TAO-linked investment vehicle.

Grayscale submitted the filing on the same day it released the research note. The firm paired market analysis with regulatory action. The documents together outline its current position on altcoins.

The research cites FTSE Russell and Artemis data to confirm the 59% decline. It also references public market data for the S&P 500’s March performance. The firm states that these figures are verifiable.

Pandl acknowledged uncertainty in the outlook. He wrote that the firm cannot confirm that valuations have reached a bottom. He nonetheless described recent price behavior as encouraging.

The note contrasts current macro conditions with those of 2023. It references active conflict in the Middle East and oil prices above $100. It also mentions a Fear and Greed Index reading of 8.

Grayscale maintains that prices now sit near prior support levels. The firm has advanced its TAO trust filing under SEC review. The latest action remains the amended S-1 submitted on April 2.

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