Netflix is one of the most closely followed stocks on Wall Street, and right now, the attention is unusually sharp. After a 10-for-1 stock split in November 2025 and a sharp pullback from its $134.12Netflix is one of the most closely followed stocks on Wall Street, and right now, the attention is unusually sharp. After a 10-for-1 stock split in November 2025 and a sharp pullback from its $134.12

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Will Netflix Stock Recover? NFLX Price Target, Analyst Ratings, and the 2030 Forecast

Author: Marcus O'Brien

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Sep 21, 2026Marcus O'Brien

9 min

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Netflix is one of the most closely followed stocks on Wall Street, and right now, the attention is unusually sharp.

After a 10-for-1 stock split in November 2025 and a sharp pullback from its $134.12 peak, NFLX trades near $82 as of early June 2026, sitting well below the analyst consensus Netflix price target of $114.56.

That gap between price and target is the central question for anyone tracking this stock, and whether it closes depends on the advertising ramp, margin execution, and what the Q2 2026 earnings reveal on July 16.

Key Takeaways

NFLX trades near $82 as of early June 2026, roughly 39% below its 52-week high of $134.12, having found a floor near $75 in February before recovering.
Netflix completed a 10-for-1 stock split on November 17, 2025, per Form 8-K filed with the SEC on October 30, 2025, converting pre-split shares near $1,200 into the current price range.
The Wall Street consensus Netflix price target is $114.56, per S&P Global Market Intelligence data covering 50 analysts, with the range running from a cautious $80 to a bullish $151.40.
Q1 2026 revenue reached $12.25 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with operating margin of 32.3%, per Netflix's official Q1 2026 shareholder letter.
Netflix's advertising tier represented over 60% of new sign-ups in advertising countries in Q1 2026, with advertiser count up 70% year-over-year to more than 4,000, and 2026 ad revenue on track for approximately $3 billion.
MoffettNathanson projects Netflix advertising revenue reaching approximately $9.6 billion by 2030, making the advertising ramp the single most important variable in the long-term NFLX stock price prediction.

NFLX Stock Today: A 39% Pullback, a 10-for-1 Split, and the $75 Floor

NFLX trades near $82 as of early June 2026, down roughly 39% from its 52-week high of $134.12 reached in June 2025.

That selloff has three roots: sentiment fallout from the terminated Warner Bros. acquisition, a Brazilian tax dispute that weighed on results through late 2025 and into 2026, and Q2 revenue guidance that arrived below some investors' expectations on the April 16 earnings call.

One key bit of context: Netflix completed a 10-for-1 forward stock split on October 30, 2025, via Form 8-K filed with the SEC, converting pre-split shares priced near $1,200 into the post-split $120 range and opening the stock to a wider pool of buyers, though the split itself changed nothing about the company's underlying value.

The stock found a floor near $75 in February 2026, its 52-week low, and has since recovered into the low-to-mid $80s ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings call on July 16.

Netflix Price Target: $114.56 Consensus, 37 Buys, and One Analyst Sees $151

The analyst community is broadly bullish on NFLX, though the precise number varies enough to matter.

Based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data covering 50 Wall Street analysts, the consensus Netflix price target stands at $114.56 as of mid-2026, implying approximately 40% upside from early-June trading levels near $82.

The rating breakdown is notably skewed toward optimism: 37 analysts rate NFLX as Buy, 12 as Hold, and only 1 as Sell, giving Netflix 74% bullish analyst coverage among the firms actively tracking the stock.

NFLX Analyst Price Target Range: $80 to $151

The spread between the most bearish and most bullish NFLX analyst price targets is wide, and the reason is straightforward: analysts disagree on how fast advertising revenue will prove out.

The most cautious published target sits at $80, implying minimal upside from early-June levels, reflecting concerns about execution risk, foreign exchange headwinds, and content spend pressure concentrated in H1 2026.

The most bullish target stands at $151.40, representing over 84% upside from current trading levels.

TickerNerd's aggregation of 78 Wall Street analysts puts the median at $115.00, closely aligned with the S&P Global average of $114.56, suggesting the consensus is not being skewed by a handful of outliers.

Goldman Says $120, BofA Says $125: NFLX Analyst Ratings Post-Q1 2026

Several major firms revised their NFLX price targets upward following the Q1 2026 earnings report on April 16, 2026.

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich reiterated a Buy rating with a $125 target in May 2026, the highest among major institutions, citing advertising momentum and Netflix's demonstrated ability to grow both subscription pricing and ad revenue simultaneously.

Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded Netflix to Buy from Neutral and raised the target to $120, pointing to a more favorable risk-reward profile and improving ad delivery and targeting infrastructure.

Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese maintained a Buy and lifted her target to $118 from $115, citing strong U.S. advertising demand and continued expansion of Netflix's global ad partnerships.

Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating and raised its target to $115, with analyst Sean Diffley noting that Netflix trades at approximately 25 to 26 times FY27 earnings, below its five-year average of 30 times, arguing the stock is not expensive relative to its growth profile.

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft holds a $100 target with a Hold rating, acknowledging Netflix's streaming leadership while arguing the stock is fairly valued at roughly 27 times 2027 EPS at current levels.

Netflix, Inc. Analyst Price Target Disagreement: $125 Buy vs. $100 Hold

The Netflix, Inc. analyst price target disagreement is not a debate about business quality: both sides agree Netflix is the dominant global streaming platform.

What they disagree on is timing.

Bulls point to the $2.80 billion Warner Bros. termination fee received in February 2026, a restarted share buyback program, FCF guidance raised to $12.5 billion for 2026, and an advertising tier that represented over 60% of new sign-ups in advertising countries during Q1 2026, with advertiser count up 70% year-over-year to more than 4,000 clients, per the official shareholder letter.

Bears emphasize content amortization front-loaded in H1 2026, an ongoing Brazilian tax dispute, Q2 revenue guidance of 13% growth that some read as conservative, and a valuation that, even at $82, still runs at a premium to traditional media peers.

The distance between a $100 Hold and a $125 Buy is really a bet on when advertising durability becomes undeniable to the holdouts.

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Price Prediction: The July 16 Earnings Test and the 2030 Advertising Roadmap

The near-term NFLX stock price prediction is tied directly to what the Q2 2026 earnings call on July 16 delivers.

Management guided Q2 2026 revenue to grow 13% year-over-year and projected Q2 operating margin at 32.6%, both per the Q1 2026 shareholder letter filed by Netflix on April 16, 2026.

If that margin guidance is confirmed, it signals the business model has durably shifted to a higher profitability level, and the case for closing the gap to the $114.56 consensus target becomes meaningfully stronger.

NFLX 12-Month Stock Price Prediction: $114 Consensus, BofA's $125 High, and Morgan Stanley's 20% FCF Growth Case

The Wall Street consensus 12-month NFLX stock price prediction of $114.56 reflects a base case where margins hit guidance, ad revenue continues compounding, and no significant execution missteps materialize.

Per Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Diffley's research published ahead of Q1 2026 earnings, expectations call for Netflix earnings and free cash flow growing at approximately 20% annually, a pace that, if sustained, would support meaningful upward revisions to current price targets within two to three years.

The most recent major institutional target is Bank of America's $125, reiterated in May 2026, which implies roughly 52% upside from early-June trading prices.

At the cautious end, Deutsche Bank's $100 Hold implies the stock recovers modestly from current levels but stays range-bound as near-term headwinds create persistent noise.

Netflix Stock Price Prediction for 2030: $9.6B in Ad Revenue and the Case for an $80B Revenue Business

The long-term Netflix stock price prediction for 2030 rests on one variable more than any other: how large the advertising revenue line becomes.

Netflix's Q4 2025 shareholder letter, filed with the SEC on January 20, 2026, confirmed that advertising revenue grew more than 2.5 times in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching over $1.5 billion.

The 2026 official guidance targets approximately $3 billion in advertising revenue, a near-doubling from 2025.

MoffettNathanson's analyst research projects Netflix advertising revenue reaching nearly $6 billion in 2027 and approximately $9.6 billion by 2030, a trajectory that would position the company alongside the largest digital advertising platforms globally.

Netflix's 2026 revenue guidance of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion already marks a material step-change from 2025's confirmed $45.2 billion.

Extending a 12 to 14% compound revenue growth trajectory from the 2026 guidance baseline through 2030 directionally points toward revenues in the range of $75 to $85 billion, though this is an extrapolation based on sustained growth rates rather than a stated analyst forecast, and individual projections vary considerably.

The long-term NFLX stock price prediction ultimately reflects how much investors are willing to pay for a business that is simultaneously the world's leading subscription streaming platform and an increasingly large digital advertising operation.

FAQ

What is the target price for Netflix stock?

The consensus Netflix price target is $114.56, per S&P Global Market Intelligence data covering 50 Wall Street analysts, with individual targets ranging from $80 to $151.40.

What is the NFLX analyst consensus rating?

NFLX carries a Buy consensus rating as of mid-2026, supported by 37 Buy ratings, 12 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating from 50 analysts tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

What is the Netflix stock price prediction for 2030?

MoffettNathanson's analyst research projects Netflix advertising revenue alone reaching approximately $9.6 billion by 2030, which, combined with continued subscription growth and margin expansion, supports a significantly higher revenue and earnings base than today.

Why did Netflix stock fall from its 52-week high?

The pullback from the $134.12 52-week high reflects the terminated Warner Bros. acquisition, a Brazilian tax dispute that began weighing on earnings in Q3 2025, and Q2 guidance that fell short of some investors' expectations following the Q1 2026 earnings report.

Did Netflix do a stock split?

Netflix completed a 10-for-1 forward stock split on November 17, 2025, as announced via Form 8-K filed with the SEC on October 30, 2025.

What is the highest analyst price target for NFLX right now?

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich holds the highest recent major-bank NFLX price target at $125, reiterated with a Buy rating in May 2026.

Conclusion

Netflix is trading at a significant discount to analyst consensus, and the fundamental setup is not complicated.

Advertising revenue is scaling, operating margins are rising, and free cash flow guidance has moved substantially higher, even if market sentiment has not yet rewarded those developments with a higher price.

The Q2 2026 earnings on July 16 are the next test: a confirmed 32.6% operating margin and continued ad revenue momentum would go a long way toward closing the gap between where NFLX trades today and where the Wall Street consensus Netflix price target says it should be.

Traders tracking the NFLX stock price prediction and looking for a platform to act on their view can explore MEXC, which provides access to both equity assets and crypto markets through a single account.

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This article is provided by Marcus O'Brien for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk. Please conduct independent research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of MEXC or its affiliates.