Week 4 of April 2026 Reporting Period: April 21–28, 2026 Data Cutoff: April 28, 2026 Key Narrative After the temporary ceasefire expired on April 22, the US and Iran did not return to open conflictWeek 4 of April 2026 Reporting Period: April 21–28, 2026 Data Cutoff: April 28, 2026 Key Narrative After the temporary ceasefire expired on April 22, the US and Iran did not return to open conflict
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | US–Iran Stalemate Keeps Oil Volatile as Bitcoin ETFs Face Month-End Selling Pressure
Week 4 of April 2026
Reporting Period: April 21–28, 2026
Data Cutoff: April 28, 2026
Key Narrative
After the temporary ceasefire expired on April 22, the US and Iran did not return to open conflict as markets initially feared. Instead, the two sides have entered a prolonged state of uneasy stalemate — not quite war, but nowhere near peace.
Iran has since launched an intensive round of shuttle diplomacy. On the evening of April 24, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi began a multi-country trip to Pakistan, Oman, and Russia. Iran reportedly delivered a new set of ceasefire conditions to Pakistan, including a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation, and the removal of maritime blockades. Tehran also proposed a three-stage negotiation framework: first, ending military aggression; second, addressing the management of the Strait of Hormuz; and only then discussing Iran's nuclear program. The United States has received the new proposal, but whether President Trump will fully accept it remains highly uncertain. Prioritizing the removal of blockades would weaken Washington's leverage and complicate its two core war objectives: the removal of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and the suspension of uranium enrichment.
The core demands of the two sides remain fundamentally misaligned. Iran insists that it will not give up control over the Strait of Hormuz and continues to demand the lifting of blockades and compensation. The United States, by contrast, wants Iran to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, transfer enriched uranium abroad, and accept a permanently open Strait free from Iranian control. This "no war, no peace" dynamic is increasingly becoming the new normal, with markets forced to price in a cycle of testing, deadlock, and renewed testing. A near-term breakthrough in face-to-face negotiations appears unlikely.
US equities continued to push into record territory this week, supported by earnings optimism but constrained by geopolitical uncertainty. As of the April 27 close, the S&P 500 ended at 7,173.91, while the Nasdaq Composite finished at 24,887.10, with both indexes reaching fresh intraday and closing highs. On Monday, investors initially responded positively to reports of Iran's revised proposal on the Strait of Hormuz. However, by the US midday session on April 27, equities had turned lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.28%, the S&P 500 down 0.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.21%. As of last Friday, 139 S&P 500 companies had reported quarterly earnings, with roughly 81% beating market expectations. This week will bring results from Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and other mega-cap technology leaders, further amplifying the "Magnificent Seven" effect on Nasdaq performance.
Crypto markets remained range-bound. During the week of April 21–26, total crypto market capitalization rose approximately 3.81% to $2.72 trillion, suggesting that the broader market is still digesting its rebound from late-March lows. Bitcoin's trading range narrowed to between $74,500 and $77,000. Ethereum faced resistance near the $2,400 technical level and briefly fell to $2,287, retesting the $2,300 support zone. Solana continued its recovery, trading between $83 and $92, largely tracking broader market sentiment. XRP held within the $1.42–$1.48 range, supported by continued inflows into related ETF products. Across April, Bitcoin climbed from around $66,000 in late March to above $78,000, gaining roughly 7% to 20% depending on the reference point and marking its strongest monthly performance since April 2025. However, price action met clear resistance near recent highs, with persistent on-chain net outflows and leveraged liquidation clusters around the $75,500–$76,000 zone acting as key technical constraints.
WTI crude oil traded choppily this week as the US–Iran negotiation stalemate and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz shipping access continued to drive two-way price action. Iran's revised reopening proposal helped extend expectations for a longer ceasefire, but Washington's muted response kept geopolitical risk elevated. After a brief pullback, crude prices continued higher. As of April 27, WTI crude oil Futures settled at $96.37 per barrel, while Brent crude Futures closed at $108.23 per barrel. The unresolved nature of geopolitical risk is creating two-way pricing pressure in oil markets, with sentiment shifts becoming increasingly frequent.
1. Core Developments in the Crypto Market
1.1 Institutional flows: heavy inflows give way to large-scale outflows
According to SoSoValue and BingX data, Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract strong inflows during the April 20–24 week, with weekly net inflows reaching approximately $824 million. This marked the fourth consecutive week of positive inflows. BlackRock's IBIT once again dominated the category, recording $733 million in weekly net inflows and maintaining its role as the primary driver of overall ETF demand. Ethereum ETFs also benefited, posting around $155 million in weekly net inflows and extending their positive streak to a third consecutive week.
However, on Monday, April 27, the funding picture reversed sharply. According to Farside Investors, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $263 million in single-day net outflows, ending a nine-day streak of consecutive net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw $50.4 million in net outflows on the same day. The simultaneous outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggest broader market-level selling pressure rather than an isolated asset-specific issue. IBIT remained the dominant source of net buying during the week, while legacy products such as GBTC continued to face redemption pressure.
At the fund level, BlackRock's IBIT led with $732.6 million in weekly net inflows. Grayscale's GBTC recorded around $59 million in net outflows, continuing its long-running redemption pattern, while Bitwise's BITB also posted $13.8 million in net outflows. Ethereum Spot ETFs remained constructive on a weekly basis, with roughly $155 million in net inflows, marking their third straight week of positive flows. Altcoin ETFs, by contrast, remained relatively muted.
1.2 Price action: the range has yet to break
After three consecutive weeks of consolidation near the $78,000 level, some market participants are increasingly interpreting Bitcoin's current structure as distribution rather than accumulation. Spot buying has continued to absorb selling pressure at elevated levels, but it has not been strong enough to drive a decisive breakout. As a result, the "consolidation before exit" narrative has gained traction.
A mix of macro uncertainties has also kept capital focused on short-term liquidity positioning rather than directional trend exposure. These include the US–Iran negotiation stalemate, record-high internal division at the Bank of Japan after a 6–3 vote to keep rates unchanged, and a broad consensus ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that rates should remain on hold.
Asset | Weekly Change | Trading Range |
Bitcoin | -1.88% | Approximately $76,500–$79,400 |
Ethereum | -3.03% | Approximately $2,264–$2,400 |
Solana | -1.77% | Approximately $83–$92 |
XRP | -3.13% | Approximately $1.38–$1.43 |
GOLD (XAUT) | 0.0305 | Approximately $4,626–$4,859 |
Total Crypto Market Cap | 0.0381 | $2.62T–$2.72T |
Source: CoinGecko, MEXC
1.3 Stablecoins: market expansion continues as capitalization pushes higher
The stablecoin market continued to expand. According to CoinW and CoinGecko, total stablecoin market capitalization reached approximately $314.8 billion as of April 26, rising modestly from the previous week. USDT remained the dominant stablecoin, with a market capitalization of $189.82 billion, accounting for 60.29% of the total stablecoin market and up 1.36% from $187.26 billion the week before. USDC ranked second, with a market capitalization of $77.7 billion, representing around 24.68% of the market and down slightly by 0.64% from the previous week.
According to DeFiLlama, while the overall stablecoin market continued to expand, certain algorithmic and protocol-based stablecoins contracted, suggesting that liquidity is concentrating further into leading centralized stablecoins such as USDT.
As the core bridge between traditional finance and crypto markets, stablecoins remain a key indicator of ecosystem liquidity. Their continued expansion suggests that capital has not exited crypto at scale. Instead, much of it remains within the ecosystem in the form of "dry powder," waiting for clearer market direction.
2. Performance Across Global Asset Classes
2.1 Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq extend record highs as earnings season accelerates
On April 27, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs for a second consecutive trading day. Earnings season has entered its peak phase, with roughly 81% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating expectations. The average earnings surprise reached 12.3%, well above the five-year average. The White House also confirmed that President Trump's team discussed Iran's new proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift risk appetite on hopes of a potential easing in geopolitical tensions.
Index | Weekly Change | Key Driver | On-Chain / Trading Mapping |
Nasdaq Composite | 0.015 | Rising Q1 earnings expectations for mega-cap tech and continued AI compute demand supporting semiconductor valuations | |
S&P 500 | 0.014 | Around 81% of reporting constituents beat Q1 expectations, while US–Iran negotiation hopes supported risk sentiment | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.60% | Earnings expectations diverged across components; McDonald's fell 3%, Walmart dropped over 1%, and consumer guidance weakened |
Earnings season is now entering its most important phase. Last week's reported earnings schedule included:
- April 22: General Motors (GM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- April 23: Tesla (TSLA)
- April 24: Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Intel (INTC)
Key upcoming earnings to watch:
2.2 Commodities: oil moves higher while precious metals extend their pullback
International oil prices continued to rise amid the Middle East conflict. Trump's cancellation of a US envoy's planned visit to Pakistan, combined with Iran's continued restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping, pushed crude prices higher. As of the April 27 close, WTI June Futures settled at $96.37 per barrel, up 2.09%, while Brent June Futures closed at $108.23 per barrel, up 2.75%. Both contracts rose more than 4% intraday at one point.
Precious metals, meanwhile, extended last week's decline. COMEX June Gold Futures fell below $4,700 per ounce on April 27, while May Silver Futures briefly dropped below $75 per ounce. Gold pulled back toward the $4,693 area, and silver fell to around $75.9. The divergence between crude oil and precious metals suggests that geopolitical risk is no longer being transmitted through traditional safe-haven channels in a straightforward way.
Asset | Weekly Performance | Key Event | On-Chain / Trading Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil | +2.09% to $96.37/barrel | US–Iran negotiation deadlock and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz | |
Brent Crude Oil | +2.75% to $108.23/barrel | Rose more than 4% intraday | |
Gold | Fell below $4,700 | Continued last week's pullback as safe-haven logic was repriced | |
Silver | Fell below $75 | Tracked gold lower, with a decline of more than 2% |
2.3 Bonds: yields edge lower while rate-cut expectations remain steady
The US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 4.23%, while fed funds pricing continued to imply a roughly 45% probability of a rate cut by September and around 66% by December. March core CPI at 2.6%, below expectations, remains an important macro backdrop.
MEXC's tokenized Treasury product, TLTON, which tracks the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, offers users a way to express views on interest-rate expectations. International ETF tokens including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT are also available on the platform.
3. Deep Dive Into Key Themes
Theme 1: US–Iran Diplomatic Deadlock — Oil Locked in a High-Volatility Regime
After the temporary ceasefire expired on April 22, the US and Iran did not return to direct conflict. Instead, the situation has entered a prolonged cycle of testing, deadlock, and renewed testing. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's four-day trip across Pakistan, Oman, and Russia reflected a carefully designed multi-track diplomatic strategy. The visit to Pakistan highlighted Tehran's trust in Islamabad as a mediation channel; the trip to Oman sent a signal of repair to Gulf neighbors; and the visit to Russia aimed to secure strategic support.
Yet the deep mismatch between US and Iranian demands makes a near-term restart of negotiations difficult. Iran insists that it will never relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz and continues to demand an end to blockades and compensation. The United States, meanwhile, wants Iran to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and seeks a permanently open Strait. Because the conflict is neither escalating into full-scale war nor moving toward a credible deal, oil prices are being locked into a high-volatility regime. Daily moves of more than 5% could increasingly become a market norm. MEXC currently offers OIL(WTI)USDT and OIL(BRENT)USDT perpetual Futures, supporting 24/7 trading, leverage of up to 200x, and 0-fee promotions, allowing users to capture two-way volatility driven by geopolitical developments.
Theme 2: ETF Flow Divergence — Selling Pressure Emerges After Nine Consecutive Days of Inflows
After nine consecutive days of net inflows, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $263 million in net outflows on April 27. Still, across the full reporting period, BlackRock's IBIT remained the dominant buyer. Capital continues to concentrate in low-cost, high-liquidity products such as IBIT, while Grayscale's GBTC has remained under redemption pressure.
IBIT posted $732.6 million in weekly net inflows, while GBTC recorded $59 million in net outflows and Bitwise's BITB saw $13.8 million in net outflows. Although month-end selling pressure has emerged, April net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are still on track to approach nearly twice the March total. The key takeaway is not that institutional demand has disappeared. Rather, flows are becoming more selective. Capital is still entering the category, but it is increasingly concentrated in the most liquid and institutionally preferred vehicles, while weaker or higher-cost products continue to lose assets.
Theme 3: Global Easing Momentum — Liquidity Still Supports Risk Assets
Although the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode, other major central banks have moved closer to easing. The European Central Bank has signaled the possibility of a June rate cut, the Swiss National Bank cut rates to -0.25% in March, and the People's Bank of China continues to maintain an accommodative policy stance.
This global rate-cut race is providing support for both defensive assets and growth assets. Current market pricing places the probability of a September Fed rate cut in the 45%–50% range. Overall macro liquidity remains supportive for risk assets, but the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not yet returned to expansion. That remains one of the key constraints preventing crypto assets from breaking decisively higher.
4. Market Buzzword Heat Map
Rank | Keyword | Main Driver / Region | On-Chain or Trading Mapping |
1 | Strait of Hormuz stalemate | Ceasefire holds amid US–Iran deadlock, but negotiation hurdles remain high | WTI/USDT, XAUT/USDT |
2 | Month-end Bitcoin ETF selling pressure | Nine-day inflow streak ended; April 27 saw $263M in single-day net outflows | BTC/USDT |
3 | Mega-cap tech earnings week | Meta, Amazon, and Apple earnings are approaching | |
4 | Stablecoin market cap pushes above $320B | USDT moves closer to $190B as stablecoin liquidity continues to expand | USDT, USDC |
5 | S&P 500 and Nasdaq extend record highs | Earnings beats and rate-cut expectations jointly support risk appetite | SPYON/USDT, QQQON/USDT |
6 | BlackRock continues aggressive weekly buying | IBIT maintains dominance while GBTC records continued outflows | BTC/USDT |
5. Key Events to Watch Next Week
Economic Calendar: April 29–May 6, SGT
Date | Event / Indicator | Market Impact | Tokenized Exposure |
April 29 | Apple (AAPL) earnings | Consumer electronics demand and AI investment guidance | AAPLON/USDT |
April 30 | US Q1 GDP, preliminary reading | Key growth signal with implications for rate-cut expectations | |
April 30 | Amazon (AMZN) earnings | Indicator for e-commerce and cloud computing demand | AMZNON/USDT |
May 1 | US March PCE price index | Fed's preferred inflation gauge | BTC/USDT |
May 4–8 | Heavy week of Fed official speeches | Multiple officials may provide signals on the rate path | TLTON/USDT |
May 6 | US April nonfarm payrolls | Core indicator of labor-market resilience | BTC/USDT |
May 6 | US–Iran negotiation progress | Tracks developments in Strait of Hormuz shipping talks | WTI/USDT, XAUT/USDT |
Note: The tokenized assets mentioned above are available on the MEXC Spot market. Each newly listed batch is eligible for 0-fee during its first 30 days on MEXC.
6. MEXC Platform Highlights
6.1 Q1 performance: TradFi Futures volume hits new highs for three consecutive months as users grow 58%
On April 22, 2026, MEXC released its Q1 2026 Ecosystem and Growth Report, with three core metrics reaching major milestones. TradFi Futures trading activity continued to accelerate throughout the quarter, with trading volume hitting new highs for three consecutive months. February volume rose 138% month-on-month, while March increased by another 45% month-on-month. March became the most active trading period of the quarter, driven by elevated volatility across gold, silver, and crude oil markets.
At the same time, monthly active traders grew 58% month-on-month, reflecting a significant increase in user engagement. A meaningful portion of this growth came from users trading TradFi Futures for the first time. In addition, the number of tradable TradFi Futures products expanded 62% quarter-on-quarter, with new listings covering precious metals, energy commodities, US equities, global indexes, FX pairs, and ETFs.
6.2 New listings: UPEG debuts in the Assessment Zone as the Meme+ Zone stays active
Over the past week, MEXC continued to expand its asset library:
- XRPHAI: Listed on MEXC on April 27. XRPHAI is a utility token in the XRP Ledger ecosystem designed to reward healthy behavior. The total supply is 1 billion tokens. Deposits are already open, and withdrawals begin on April 28.
- UPEG: First listed in the Assessment Zone on April 26. UPEG is a new type of on-chain object token with a total supply of 10,000 tokens.
- Global debut of OPG Futures: The OpenGradient (OPG)USDT perpetual Futures contract, which made its global debut on April 21, continues to benefit from new-listing incentives.
6.3 MEXCmize 8eyond Infinity: 10M USDT Trading Competition and 0-Fee Event Is Still Live
MEXC's MEXCmize 8eyond Infinity campaign is now in full swing. The 0-fee Fest began on April 16 and will run through May 13, covering hundreds of Spot and Futures trading pairs. Eligible markets include popular crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, as well as traditional commodities including gold, silver, and crude oil, and tokenized US equities such as NVDA, GOOGL, and TSLA.
MEXCmize 8eyond Infinity Futures Team Competition features a total prize pool of up to 10 million USDT. Since the event began on April 12, it has attracted strong user participation. According to the daily Futures trading volume leaderboard on April 24, the top 10 users each recorded more than 213 million USDT in single-day Futures trading volume, with the highest reaching 226 million USDT. In early April, MEXC also completed a comprehensive 8th Anniversary brand upgrade, introducing a new brand vision centered on "0 Fees, Infinite Opportunities."
Disclaimer: This report is for research and reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events as well as macroeconomic developments may have a material impact on market conditions. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented solely for objective informational purposes and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.
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