Week 4, July 2026 Reporting Period: Jul 22, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026 Data cutoff: Jul 28, 2026 Core Narrative Last week, the crypto market experienced a dramatic shift from optimism to caution. Early inWeek 4, July 2026 Reporting Period: Jul 22, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026 Data cutoff: Jul 28, 2026 Core Narrative Last week, the crypto market experienced a dramatic shift from optimism to caution. Early in
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | Bulls vs. Bears Clash Ahead of FOMC: Is BTC's $63K Critical Support a Golden Buying Opportunity or a Bottomless Pit?
Week 4, July 2026
Reporting Period: Jul 22, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026
Data cutoff: Jul 28, 2026
Core Narrative
Last week, the crypto market experienced a dramatic shift from optimism to caution. Early in the week, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $65,000–$66,000. However, as the Fed's FOMC meeting approached, expectations of a rate hike surged, causing market sentiment to deteriorate sharply. By July 28, BTC had retreated to approximately $63,000–$63,350, marking its lowest level in nearly 11 days.
Anticipation for this FOMC meeting is at its highest in nearly two years, with market pricing briefly reflecting a 36% probability of a rate hike. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision at 02:00 (UTC+8) on Thursday, July 30. Recent data indicates that the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike has risen from roughly 10% two weeks ago to 36% currently, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged stands at about 64%. Since Warsh assumed office, the Fed has abandoned forward guidance in favor of a real-time, data-dependent model, rendering this meeting particularly unpredictable. Notably, Citadel Securities has suggested the possibility of an unexpected 25-basis-point rate increase. Regardless of the outcome, this decision will serve as the pivotal factor determining the crypto market's trajectory in August.
ETF Fund Flows: The three-week streak of net inflows has ended, marked by significant outflows in the latter half of the week. From July 23 to 24, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net outflows exceeding $465 million, snapping a prior run of seven consecutive trading days of inflows. Heavy withdrawals from BlackRock's IBIT were the primary driver of this reversal. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs bucked the trend, posting net inflows of $103.8 million for the week ending July 24—roughly triple the volume seen in Bitcoin ETFs—and leading for a second consecutive week. Data indicates a structural reallocation of capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum ETFs.
Geopolitics: Conflict intensity has cooled significantly as the situation enters a "game of chicken" phase. Following 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, the U.S. military has paused operations for several days. Iran has hinted at restraint in its retaliation and engaged in talks with Oman regarding key shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan reported "major" progress in efforts to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table. Consequently, Brent crude oil prices have dropped from last week’s intraday peak of $93.5 per barrel to approximately $83, reflecting a continued unwind of the geopolitical risk premium.
Regulatory Update: The momentum behind the CLARITY Act has stalled, with its prospects for approval this year diminishing sharply. Galaxy Digital's Head of Research has reduced the estimated probability of passage in 2026 to 30%, while Polymarket prediction data has slipped to the 32%-36% range. With the Senate scheduled to enter recess on August 7, the likelihood of the bill passing before this deadline is now extremely slim.
Reflecting on this week's market performance, prices faced significant pressure from three key factors: a reversal in ETF fund flows, lingering expectations of FOMC rate hikes, and a retreat in geopolitical risk premiums. Bitcoin is currently engaged in a critical battle to hold the $63,000 support level, with the upcoming FOMC decision poised to be the primary driver of market direction in August.
I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market
1. Institutional Funds: Three-Week ETF Rally Concludes as Significant Net Outflows Mark the Week’s Second Half
Bitcoin Spot ETFs reversed their trend this week, ending a three-week streak of net inflows. For the week ending July 24, the 13 Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded total net inflows of approximately $33.90 million, a 55% decline from the previous week's $106 million. More notably, significant net outflows occurred on July 23 and 24, totaling $225.18 million and $240.08 million, respectively. The combined two-day outflow exceeded $465 million, abruptly halting the prior seven-day run of consecutive inflows. BlackRock's IBIT was the primary driver of this downturn, experiencing substantial outflows in the latter half of the week.
In contrast, Ethereum Spot ETFs demonstrated markedly different performance. For the week ending July 24, Ethereum Spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $103.8 million—roughly triple that of Bitcoin ETFs—outperforming Bitcoin products for the second consecutive week. Specifically, BlackRock's ETHA contributed $96.30 million in net inflows, while IBIT saw net outflows of $95.50 million over the same period, creating a stark divergence. This contrast suggests a structural reallocation of capital between these two asset classes.
On-chain supply is tightening further. CryptoQuant data reveals that exchange Bitcoin reserves dropped from 2.783 million to 2.705 million over the past six months, reflecting a net outflow of approximately 78,000 BTC. As holders transfer assets to self-custody wallets, tradable market liquidity continues to dwindle. While this supply-demand imbalance has not yet fully alleviated short-term selling pressure, the scarcity of spot supply suggests that a resurgence in buying activity could trigger heightened price volatility.
2. Price Action: BTC Nears $63,000, Hitting an 11-Day Low
July 22–24: Bitcoin consolidated sideways within the $65,000–$66,000 range. Amid continued ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, market trading activity grew increasingly cautious.
Market Recap (Jul 25–27): Bitcoin maintained a downward trajectory, breaching multiple key support levels. The anticipated bullish breakout outlined in our previous analysis was invalidated as the price failed to test the $67,370 resistance level.
Latest Update (Jul 28): During the Asian morning session, Bitcoin dropped by up to 2.3% to $63,414, hitting an 11-day low. At press time, BTC is consolidating within the $63,200–$63,500 range. Although it has held above the psychological $63,000 support, this level appears fragile. Ethereum also weakened, slipping below the $1,900 mark, while overall market sentiment remains subdued. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network surged to $686 million—$542 million of which were long positions—affecting over 160,000 investors.
Asset | Weekly Change | Price Range |
Bitcoin (BTC) | Approx. -2% ~ -3% | $63,000 – $66,000 |
Ethereum (ETH) | Approx. -3% ~ -4% | $1,850 – $1,950 |
Solana (SOL) | Approx. -2% ~ +1% | $76 – $84 |
XRP | Approx. -3% ~ -1% | $1.05 – $1.13 |
Total Market Cap | Approx. -2% ~ -4% | $2.10 – $2.18 Trillion |
Data sources: MEXC, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
Technical Outlook: Market attention is currently fixed on the key support zone of $63,000–$63,300. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, stated, "The next downside target is $62,000, with the $60,000 region expected to offer robust support." Should the $63,000 level hold, BTC may rebound above $65,000. Conversely, a daily close below this threshold would place immediate pressure on the $62,000 level. Regarding indicators, the RSI(14) is approaching oversold territory, hinting at a potential short-term technical bounce; however, the bearish MACD crossover confirms persistent downward momentum.
3. Stablecoins: Market Cap Stabilizes and Rebounds as Capital Shifts Toward Compliant Assets
As of July 28, the total stablecoin market cap stood at approximately $309.9 billion, reflecting a $0.5 billion increase from the mid-July low and halting the contraction trend observed since mid-May. Although the market cap still registered a 0.79% decline over the past 30 days, this stabilization warrants close monitoring. A halt in declines followed by a rebound in stablecoin market capitalization is frequently viewed as a leading indicator that incremental capital is beginning to flow back into the market.
Major Stablecoin Performance Diverges:
USDT's market cap stands at approximately $183.9 billion, reflecting a slight weekly decline of 0.03%. Following cumulative outflows of roughly $5.4 billion over the past 60 days, liquidity conditions have recently stabilized. Meanwhile, USDC's market cap is around $73.7 billion, down 0.04% week-over-week, with relatively moderate outflows. Leveraging its compliance advantages, USDC has demonstrated greater resilience amid tightening regulations. Both stablecoins continue to trade near their $1 peg, showing no signs of depegging.
After experiencing sharp volatility last week, Sky-issued USDS has temporarily stabilized, although its market cap has contracted significantly over the past 30 days. In contrast, Global Dollar (USDG) has remained robust, rising against the prevailing trend, while PayPal's PYUSD also recorded positive growth. This divergence highlights a shift of capital toward assets that offer stronger compliance and recognition within the U.S. regulatory framework.
Key Structural Signals to Watch:
During the same period, Bitcoin and major altcoins did not experience a comparable sharp decline. This divergence suggests that the adjustment was not driven by typical "risk-off" sentiment, but rather by a structural reshaping of the stablecoin competitive landscape. A primary catalyst is the GENIUS Act, which prohibits payment stablecoins from distributing yield to holders. Consequently, idle capital has flowed out of non-interest-bearing assets like USDT and USDC into tokenized Treasury bond funds offering approximately 4% yield. As a result, assets under management in these funds surged from $11 billion in March to nearly $16 billion.
Another significant structural shift is the surge in stablecoin trading activity. Following the June adjustment, trading volume reached a record high of $1.79 trillion, representing a 63% month-over-month and 125% year-over-year increase. Notably, while USDC's market cap remains less than half that of USDT, its contributed trading volume hit approximately $1.21 trillion, far exceeding USDT's $576 billion. This disparity indicates a substantial increase in capital turnover but also suggests that new capital inflows remain limited. Without stronger support from stablecoin reserves, any subsequent market rebound may rely more heavily on leverage and external financing.
II. Global Asset Performance
1. Equity Markets: Earnings Divergence Intensifies; Asian Chip Stocks Plunge
This week, U.S. equity markets exhibited divergent trends, driven by geopolitical tensions, earnings season positioning, and anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting. As of the July 27 close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.51%, the S&P 500 remained virtually flat (+0.02%), and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18%.
Earnings reports took center stage, with Alphabet's results sparking concerns over surging AI-related expenditures. On July 22, after market close, Alphabet reported Q2 earnings that beat expectations: revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $119.8 billion, while Google Cloud revenue surged 82% to $24.8 billion. However, capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to $44.9 billion, pushing free cash flow into negative territory at -$5.9 billion—its first negative reading in decades. Additionally, the company raised its full-year capex guidance to $195–$205 billion, and indicated that capital expenditures are expected to remain elevated through 2027. Amid growing investor concern regarding the payback period for AI investments, Alphabet's Class A shares dropped nearly 5% in after-hours trading before settling with a 3.31% decline.
Meta Platforms is scheduled to release its earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 29 (ET). Wall Street anticipates Q2 revenue of approximately $60.26 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of about 27%. Amid growing concerns over Alphabet's AI spending, investors are also closely monitoring Meta’s capital expenditure guidance.
Chip stocks endured a "Black Monday," placing significant pressure on the AI investment thesis. On July 27, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed 2.23% lower, having intraday dipped nearly 5%. Nvidia shares plunged 4.99%, causing its market capitalization to fall below $5 trillion and allowing Apple to reclaim the top spot in global rankings. Other major players also suffered losses: AMD fell 5.17%, Micron Technology dropped more than 2%, SanDisk plunged nearly 11%, and SK Hynix declined by over 7%. Market anxiety centers on more than $750 billion in debt linked to Nvidia-driven AI infrastructure deals. Additionally, Nvidia’s credit default swap (CDS) spread recorded its largest single-day increase on record, fueling widespread industry doubts regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures.
Asian equities experienced a sharp sell-off as concerns over AI credit risk intensified. South Korea's KOSPI Index plunged approximately 10% this week, reaching its lowest level since mid-April, while shares of tech giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix tumbled. Analysts note that anxieties surrounding AI credit risk are indirectly dampening sentiment in the crypto market.
Index | Weekly Change | Key Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
Nasdaq Composite Index | ~ -0.47% | Tech stocks weighed down by earnings-season concerns over AI capital expenditure | |
S&P 500 Index | ~ -0.20% | Cautious trading ahead of the FOMC meeting; divergent sector performance | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | ~ +0.34% | Relatively resilient, supported by value and energy stocks |
2. Commodities: Oil Prices Experience Volatile Swings as Geopolitical Premium Spikes and Then Rapidly Unwinds
This week, the commodities market narrative remained focused on the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Oil prices witnessed intense intraday volatility, characterized by sharp surges followed by steep declines. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices underwent a choppy pullback, pressured by both the fading geopolitical premium and rising expectations of interest rate hikes.
Crude Oil: Early in the week, WTI crude briefly surged to $89.74/barrel and Brent crude touched $98.12/barrel, driven by ongoing US military strikes on Iran and disruptions to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the geopolitical premium quickly evaporated after Trump confirmed a pause in new strikes on July 27, opening a window for diplomatic negotiations. Brent crude plunged 8.7% to $88.36/barrel, while WTI fell 7.5% to $82.61/barrel, marking the largest single-day drop for both benchmarks in nearly 15 months. As of July 28, oil prices have been consolidating within the $83–$88/barrel range.
Gold: Gold prices exhibited a "surge and pullback" pattern this week. On Monday, spot gold gapped up at the open, briefly breaking above $4,110/oz—its first return above $4,100 since July 22—buoyed by news of a pause in US-Iran tensions. However, strengthening US dollar sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve (FOMC) rate hike weighed on the market, causing gold to retreat and close up 0.58% at $4,076.8/oz. During Tuesday’s Asian session, spot gold extended its losses, dropping nearly 1% to trade near $4,043/oz, having fallen below the $4,040/oz threshold. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index climbed to a near one-month high of around 101.55, exerting further downward pressure on gold. The market remains locked in a tug-of-war between geopolitical support and capped gains due to real rates, leaving gold without a clear directional trend ahead of the FOMC decision.
Silver: High Elasticity Triggers Sharp Decline. Burdened by downgraded industrial demand expectations and the unwinding of the geopolitical premium, Silver underperformed Gold. During the Asian session on July 28, Spot Silver traded at $57.39/oz, a 1.72% drop, while the domestic SHFE silver main contract fell 2.34% to 14,088 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio has climbed above 69.50; further increases would signal a bearish outlook. In the short term, key support for Silver lies in the $56–$57 range.
Asset | Weekly Performance | Key Events | On-Chain Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil | $82.6 – $89.7/barrel | Following a spike in the geopolitical premium, prices underwent a concentrated release, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 15 months. | |
Brent Crude Oil | $88.4 – $98.1/barrel | Trump paused strikes on Iran, opening a window for negotiations. | |
Gold | $4,040 – $4,150/oz | The unwinding of the geopolitical premium, combined with pressure from high real rates, pushed prices back to test the $4,040 support level. | |
Silver | $57.4 – $60.3/oz | Weighed down by its industrial exposure, Silver led precious metals in declines. |
3. Bond Market: Yields Spike Then Retreat; Sentiment Turns Cautious Ahead of FOMC
This week, the bond market exhibited a "rise-then-fall" trajectory. The dominant trading narrative shifted from inflation fears driven by geopolitical tensions to a wait-and-see stance, with investors adjusting positions ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.
First Half of the Week: Geopolitical Tensions Push Yields to Year-to-Date Highs. Early in the week, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a surge in oil prices fueled inflation expectations, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher for three consecutive days. On July 22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 3.45 basis points to 4.66%, marking a year-to-date high. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield broke above 4.30%, reaching its highest level in nearly 18 months. Additionally, the 30-year yield remained above 5%, underscoring growing market concerns over the expanding fiscal deficit.
Late-Week Market Recap: Oil Price Plunge Drives U.S. Treasury Yield Pullback
On July 27, Trump confirmed a pause in new strikes against Iran, triggering a more than 7% plunge in oil prices and driving U.S. Treasury yields lower across the board. The 10-year yield fell approximately 2.8 basis points to 4.651%, the 2-year yield dropped about 1.9 basis points to 4.320%, and the 30-year yield settled at 5.122%. Meanwhile, trading volume in Treasury futures remained below the 20-day average, reflecting heightened market caution ahead of the FOMC decision.
Term Spread and Treasury Issuance
The yield curve continued to steepen, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries holding steady at around 32 basis points. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury issued $69 billion in 2-year notes and $70 billion in 5-year notes this week, with auction yields for both hitting new highs since December 2024.
MEXC Tokenized Treasury Product Updates
MEXC’s tokenized Treasury product, TLTON/USDT (linked to the TLT ETF), offers users a convenient channel to trade expectations on long-end U.S. Treasury yields. Currently, the TLT ETF NAV stands at approximately $84, with a 30-day SEC yield of 5.03%. Furthermore, the platform has listed multiple international ETF token trading pairs, including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT, further diversifying investment options for users.
III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Topics
Focus 1: FOMC Decision – The Most Significant Uncertainty in Nearly Two Years Unveiled This Week
The Federal Reserve’s July interest rate decision is scheduled for release in the early hours of July 30 (Beijing Time), this Thursday. Market participants regard this meeting as the most uncertain policy event in recent years.
As of July 28, market pricing reflects the following expectations ahead of the announcement:
- Rates held unchanged: ~62%–75% probability
- 25 basis point rate hike: ~30%–36% probability
- Probability of at least one rate hike within the year: ~68%
Hawk-Dove Policy Tug-of-War: Proponents of a rate hike argue that with Brent Crude briefly touching the $100/barrel threshold, energy-driven inflation risks are resurfacing. They contend that Chair Warsh must send hawkish signals to solidify his anti-inflation credentials—a view echoed by Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who have publicly advocated for higher rates. Conversely, the "hold-steady" camp believes the June CPI decline to 3.5% offers a window for caution. They argue that a rate hike would fail to resolve overseas oil supply bottlenecks and could instead dampen real economic momentum.
The Unique Uncertainty of the "Warsh Era": The primary wildcard in this meeting is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who assumed office in May. Abandoning traditional forward guidance, he has emphasized that policy decisions will be dynamically adjusted based on "real-time" data, warning investors against over-reliance on central bank signaling. Goldman Sachs analysts noted, "The market anticipates significant uncertainty surrounding the July meeting outcome, driven largely by widening internal divisions within the Fed and the ambiguity of Chair Warsh’s own policy stance."
DWS’ Chief U.S. Economist predicts that while the probability of a rate hike this month remains low, internal divisions are becoming increasingly pronounced. Shifts in dissenting votes may indicate that the FOMC’s internal stance is evolving from theoretical debate to substantive calls for rate hikes.
Trading Strategy: Should the Fed hold interest rates steady and adopt a dovish stance, BTC is projected to rebound swiftly toward the $65,000–$66,000 range. Conversely, an unexpected rate hike or clear signals of a September increase would severely test key support levels at $62,000–$63,000.
Topic 2: ETF Inflows’ "Three-Week Winning Streak" Ends – Trend Reversal or Short-Term Volatility?
The key market development this week was the break in the three-week streak of net inflows.
Data Review: Over the prior three weeks, Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $379 million. However, as of July 24, weekly net inflows plummeted to $33.90 million, marking a 55% week-over-week decline. Notably, total net outflows from July 23–24 exceeded $465 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT experiencing significant capital outflows in the latter half of the week.
Ethereum ETFs Emerge as "Lone Warriors": This week, net inflows into Ethereum Spot ETFs reached $103.8 million—approximately three times that of Bitcoin ETFs—marking the second consecutive week of leadership. Notably, BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $96.3 million in net inflows, while Bitcoin’s IBIT recorded $95.5 million in net outflows. Data indicates that this capital shift does not represent a broad institutional exit from the crypto market, but rather a clear structural reallocation, with funds rotating from Bitcoin ETFs into Ethereum ETFs.
Three key drivers likely underpin this trend: 1) Despite the regulatory discount on Ethereum caused by the stalled CLARITY Act, some institutions view this as a strategic opportunity to "buy the dip"; 2) The ETH/BTC ratio is at historic lows, triggering demand for relative value allocation; and 3) BlackRock has intensified marketing efforts for its Ethereum products. On the corporate front, BitMine Immersion, the largest corporate ETH holder, increased its holdings by 104,512 ETH over the past 30 days. Its total position now stands at 5.78 million ETH, representing approximately 4.8% of Ethereum’s total supply.
Trading Takeaways: Single-day ETF outflows exceeding $200 million suggest limited institutional appetite for chasing higher prices after BTC broke above $65,000. Post-FOMC ETF fund flows will be a critical indicator to monitor; if the outflow trend persists for several days, BTC’s support level at $62,000 will face significant pressure.
Topic 3: The US-Iran Conflict - A Temporary Breather in the "Game of Chicken"
Situation Update: Although the intensity of the conflict has eased, the crisis remains unresolved. Following 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, the US military has paused operations for several days. On July 27, Trump stated, "We are engaged in in-depth talks with Iran. If the talks break down, we will resume strong military action." Meanwhile, Iran has hinted at restraint in its retaliation and is engaging in talks via Oman regarding key shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Market Impact: As the geopolitical risk premium unwound, Brent Crude prices fell sharply from the $100/barrel threshold to around $88. However, traders remain cautious; tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet normalized, with fewer than 10 commercial vessels passing through daily. Societe Generale analysts warned that if the conflict persists without a clear resolution, oil prices could rise by approximately $10 per barrel for each additional month.
Key Follow-ups:
- Shipping Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz: Current traffic remains significantly below normal levels, and the pace of recovery will be a key determinant of oil price trends.
- Progress in US-Iran Diplomatic Mediation: Whether negotiations achieve a substantive breakthrough will be the critical variable in easing tensions.
IV. Market Hot Topic Word Cloud
Rank | Keywords | Core Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
1 | FOMC Rate Hike Expectations Intensify; Probability Hits 30% | Policy divergence has widened over the past two years. Warsh's abandonment of forward guidance has increased uncertainty, while Citadel Securities forecasts a potential surprise rate hike. | |
2 | Bitcoin ETFs Record Three Days of Net Outflows, Exceeding $470M | Total net outflows reached $476.9 million. Continued capital exit ended the previous three-week inflow streak. | BTC/USDT |
3 | BTC Tests $63,000 Support Level | Price retraced to ~$63,350, testing the 50-day moving average ($63,275). The $62,000 support level is now under pressure. | BTC/USDT |
4 | Ethereum ETFs Buck the Trend with Inflows | Net inflows hit $9.23 million on July 27, driven largely by BlackRock’s ETHA, which contributed $11.75 million. | |
5 | Geopolitical Tensions Ease; Oil Prices Plunge | Trump pauses military action against Iran, causing the geopolitical premium to fade rapidly. Brent crude fell 8.7% to $88.36. | |
6 | CLARITY Act Legislative Update | The revised draft includes ethics provisions barring federal officials from issuing digital assets, garnering public support from BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Fidelity. While the Senate plans an early August review, competing priorities (Russia sanctions bill) and ethical disputes make a final vote before the August recess unlikely. | BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT |
V. Key Focus Areas for the Coming Week
Economic Calendar (Jul 29 – Aug 1, SGT)
Date | Event/Index | Market Impact | Tokenized Underlying |
Early morning, Jul 30 (Thu) | Fed FOMC Interest Rate Decision | Key focus of the week! Market pricing indicates a ~36% probability of a rate hike and ~64% for no change, representing the widest divergence in nearly two years. | BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT |
Jul 30 (Thu) 20:30 | US Q2 GDP Advance Estimate | Should economic resilience exceed expectations, it may bolster hopes for a rate hike. | BTC/USDT |
After market close, Jul 29 (Wed) | Meta Platforms Earnings Report | Wall Street forecasts Q2 revenue at ~$60.2 billion; key focus lies on whether AI capital expenditure will increase further. | QQQON/USDT |
After market close, Jul 29 (Wed) | Microsoft FY2026 Q4 Earnings Report | Revenue expected to reach ~$87.7 billion; Azure growth and FY2027 capex guidance will likely dictate the AI sector's direction. | QQQON/USDT |
After market close, Jul 30 (Thu) | Apple Q3 Earnings Report | Revenue projected at ~$108.1 billion. As Tim Cook’s final earnings report before stepping down, attention centers on iPhone sales and AI services performance. | |
After market close, Jul 30 (Thu) | Amazon Q2 Earnings Report | Revenue forecast at ~$196.2 billion; AWS growth and free cash flow remain key variables. | QQQON/USDT |
Jul 31 (Fri) 20:30 | US June PCE Price Index | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will directly influence the September policy trajectory. | BTC/USDT |
Jul 31 – Aug 1 | Progress in US-Iran Mediation | Trump stated that "in-depth talks" are ongoing with Iran; military action may resume if negotiations fail. | BTC/USDT, OIL(WTI)USDT |
VI. Platform Updates
1. MEXC Announces Strategic Partnership with Yuma, Launching TAO Staking Services
MEXC has announced a strategic partnership with Yuma, a leading infrastructure and investment firm within the Bittensor ecosystem, and officially launched TAO staking services on its platform. This integration allows users to engage in TAO staking seamlessly, without complex procedures, thereby supporting the growth of open-source AI networks. Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, highlighted Bittensor as an early-stage network worthy of investor attention. He noted that this collaboration with Yuma significantly lowers entry barriers, making TAO staking more accessible to a broader user base.
2. MEXC Launches Up/Down Price Prediction Feature with $1 Million Prize Pool
On July 24, MEXC officially launched its Up/Down short-term prediction feature. This tool allows users to predict whether an asset's price will rise or fall within 5-minute or 15-minute intervals, without executing traditional trades. Initially supporting BTC, the feature will gradually expand to include ETH, SPCX, and Gold (XAU). Coinciding with this launch is the "Up/Down Prediction Fiesta," an event featuring a prize pool of up to $1 million, running from July 24 to August 9.
3. CEO Vugar Usi Marks First 100 Days with Open Letter and New Chief Compliance Officer Appointment
On July 23, MEXC CEO Vugar Usi published an open letter commemorating his first 100 days in office. He articulated the core belief that "today's retail investors are not only crypto asset investors but also opportunity investors." The letter underscored the platform’s commitment to three strategic pillars: reducing user participation costs, expanding access to emerging opportunities, and strengthening the foundation for responsible growth.
Usi also announced the appointment of Robert E. MacDonald as Chief Compliance Officer (CCO), tasked with overseeing global compliance strategy and licensing operations. Previously, Mr. MacDonald served as Bybit's Chief Legal & Compliance Officer, bringing over 20 years of extensive compliance experience across both traditional finance and digital assets.
Furthermore, Usi highlighted in his letter that retail investor interest is gradually shifting from cryptocurrencies to a broader range of assets, including IPOs, gold, and oil. This trend is underscored by the strong performance of the SPACEX(PRE) Launchpad, which attracted over 74,000 participants and recorded total subscriptions exceeding $173 million. With subscriptions exceeding the maximum allocation by up to 30x, the event clearly demonstrates robust market demand for emerging asset classes.
Disclaimer: This report is intended for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events or macroeconomic shifts may significantly impact the market. Investors should make independent decisions based on their individual risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned herein are presented as objective data and do not represent recommendations to buy or sell.
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In the cryptocurrency market, trading in major players like BTC and ETH have become fiercely competitive, while the real opportunities for outsized returns often lie in underexplored long-tail assets.
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