News Corp Stock Is Down 4% in 2026 While Dow Jones Posts Its Best Margins Ever: What’s the Market Missing?

Key Stats for News Corporation:

• 52-Week Range: $22.20 to $31.61
• Current Price: $25.03 (as of June 25, 2026 close)
• Market Cap: ~$14 billion
• Street Mean Target: ~$35
• NTM P/E: ~21x
• NTM EV/EBITDA: ~9x
• LTM Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.53x
• Q3 FY2026 Total Segment EBITDA: $343 million (up 18% year over year)
• Q3 FY2026 Adjusted EPS: $0.21 (up from $0.17)

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Dow Jones Is Growing at 8%. The Market Is Paying for Something Much Slower

The EPS chart for News Corporation tells a recovery story that the stock price has not fully reflected. Normalized earnings fell from $1.20 in fiscal 2022 to $0.49 in fiscal 2023, weighed down by restructuring costs, the unwinding of the Foxtel subscription video business, and persistent pressure in News Media.

The recovery since then has been steady. EPS climbed to $0.70 in fiscal 2024, and $0.89 in fiscal 2025, and consensus projects continued momentum: around $1.08 in fiscal 2026, $1.29 in fiscal 2027, and approaching $1.47 by fiscal 2028.

The Q3 fiscal 2026 results show what is driving that trajectory. Dow Jones grew revenues 8% to $619 million, with digital advertising up 13% and Risk & Compliance surging 19% to $100 million. Wall Street Journal digital-only subscriptions grew 11% year over year to 4.3 million, now representing 92% of total WSJ subscriptions. Digital Real Estate Services grew 17%, with REA Group posting 20% revenue growth and Realtor.com up 10%.

CEO Robert Thomson said on the Q3 call that Dow Jones posted its highest segment EBITDA margin in the segment’s history. He also announced a pathway to $1 billion in annual Dow Jones EBITDA within five years, up from $588 million in fiscal 2025. That trajectory, if achieved, would be a meaningful re-rating catalyst for a stock the market currently treats as a legacy media business.

The contrast with Thomson Reuters’ trading is instructive. Thomson Reuters, whose professional information and compliance business most closely resembles what Dow Jones is becoming, trades as a B2B data compounder at a premium multiple. News Corporation, generating $343 million in total segment EBITDA in the same quarter, still trades as a newspaper. The gap reflects market perception, not the underlying business reality.

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News Corp Is an AI Inputs Company. The Market Has Not Priced That Yet

Beyond the core segments, News Corporation has positioned itself as what Thomson calls an “AI inputs company.” The Meta content licensing deal is reportedly worth around $50 million per year for at least three years. The OpenAI partnership is separate. News Corp also expects to receive its share of a $1.5 billion settlement with Anthropic later this calendar year.

Thomson confirmed on the Q3 call that the company is in advanced negotiations with several additional AI platforms. He describes the opportunity as driven by a new generation of specialist vertical AI firms that need both archival and current premium content.

These deals are not yet material to reported earnings. When they flow through, they represent high-margin incremental revenue on content the company has already produced. The market is assigning them essentially no value today.

Explore TIKR’s full model for News Corporation stock, including the Dow Jones revenue build and Realtor.com upside scenario, on TIKR for free →

What the TIKR Model Says About the Gap Between Price and Value

The TIKR mid-case model targets around $32 per share, implying roughly 29% total return at about 6.6% annualized over the next four years. The high case reaches around $43, implying total returns above 70%. The low case lands near $29, still above the current price.

The Street mean target of around $35 implies roughly 40% upside from current levels. Eight analysts cover the stock: five with Buy ratings, two with Outperform, and one with a Hold. There are zero sell ratings. Management has been buying back shares aggressively, repurchasing $193 million in Q3 alone and $459 million year-to-date.

The bear case is that News Media continues declining, the housing market recovery takes longer than expected at Realtor.com, and AI licensing revenue never scales enough to move the needle. Those are real risks. The bull case is that a business compounding EBITDA at double-digit rates for 12 consecutive quarters, with a clear path to $1 billion at its best segment and zero sell ratings on the Street, should not trade at 9x NTM EBITDA.

Should You Invest in News Corporation?

News Corporation is a sum-of-parts story where the parts are worth meaningfully more than the whole.

Dow Jones is a high-quality subscription and professional information business that the market has never properly separated from the newspapers around it. Digital Real Estate is compounding quietly across two continents. The AI licensing deals add an option that the market is currently pricing at zero.

The risk is real: News Media is in structural decline, and that drag will not disappear. But at 9x EBITDA with a management team aggressively buying back stock and a Street that is unanimously constructive, the case for patient investors is straightforward. The market is looking at the masthead and ignoring the business underneath it.

Wall Street is already tracking the AI licensing deals and the Dow Jones EBITDA target. See analyst rating changes and price target revisions on News Corp stock the moment they happen with TIKR for free →

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!