Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock Drops 44% — But NASA Just Handed It Three New Launches

TLDR

• Rocket Lab was selected by NASA to provide three Electron launches for the PolSIR and TSIS-2 missions, starting early 2027.
• The company set a global record for launch turnaround speed with the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS HAZE mission.
• RKLB stock recently closed at $80.69, up 6.2% year to date but down 43.7% over the past month.
• KeyBanc upgraded RKLB to Overweight on June 14 with a $135 price target, citing constrained launch capacity and growing NASA activity.
• KGI Securities also initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $105 price target on June 11.

Rocket Lab had a busy week. The company picked up a three-launch contract from NASA and set a world record for defense launch speed, all while its stock continues to trade well below its recent highs.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

NASA selected Rocket Lab to fly three Electron rockets for two separate missions: PolSIR and TSIS-2. Two back-to-back launches for PolSIR are scheduled from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand no earlier than June 2027. A third launch for TSIS-2 will fly from the same site in early 2027.

RKLB stock closed at $80.69. That puts it around 24% below the consensus analyst price target of $106.92.

The stock is up 6.2% year to date and has delivered a 123.3% return over the past 12 months. But it has pulled back hard recently, falling 43.7% over the past 30 days and 24.8% over the past week alone.

KeyBanc Upgrades to Overweight

On June 14, KeyBanc upgraded RKLB to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $135 price target. The firm pointed to weakened investor sentiment following a SpaceX IPO-related selloff, which it sees as creating entry points in well-positioned space companies.

KeyBanc said NASA activity is accelerating at a pace not seen since the Apollo era. It flagged that launch capacity remains structurally tight even as demand for satellites and space-based applications keeps growing.

The firm identified Rocket Lab as a preferred pick given its alignment with national security and NASA priorities.

On June 11, just days earlier, KGI Securities initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $105 price target. The initiation pointed to growing institutional interest as Rocket Lab expands across launch, spacecraft systems, and satellite infrastructure.

Analyst targets currently range from $60 to $150.

Setting a Defense Launch Record

Alongside the NASA contract, Rocket Lab supported the U.S. Space Force’s VICTUS HAZE mission and set a global record for launch turnaround speed. The details of the record weren’t disclosed, but the mission underlines how Rocket Lab is positioning itself for time-critical defense work.

That combination — rapid response capability for defense customers and a growing NASA manifest — reflects how the company is building its government revenue base.

Rocket Lab is headquartered in Long Beach, California. It designs and manufactures rockets, spacecraft, and satellite components while also providing dedicated launch services for small and medium-sized payloads.

The company is listed among stocks with potential to double over the next two years, according to one analysis, with a market cap of around $62 billion.

Simply Wall St flags RKLB as trading roughly 10.3% above estimated fair value. It also notes insider selling and shareholder dilution as risk factors worth watching.

The stock currently trades at $80.69, with the three-launch NASA contract and the VICTUS HAZE record as the most recent catalysts.

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