Ethereum (ETH) Price Could Plunge 30% Despite Whale Accumulation of Millions

Key Takeaways

• Historical support at the ETH Realized Price Lower Band near $1,150 suggests a potential 30% decline from current levels
• Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US saw $82.3 million exit on Tuesday, marking the seventh consecutive week of negative flows
• Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) pulled $42.62 million in ETH from Binance on June 23
• Bitmine, backed by Tom Lee, acquired 35,138 ETH valued at $58.65 million, following a $92 million purchase the week before
• Crypto analyst Ted Pillows warns that sellers are preventing rallies beyond $1,700, with new lows likely unless this resistance is broken

Ethereum is hovering near $1,615 on Wednesday, registering a decline of over 3% as bearish momentum persists across various indicators.

An important onchain metric known as the ETH Realized Price Lower Band is currently positioned around $1,150. During previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022, Ethereum found its floor near this threshold. Should history repeat itself, this indicates a possible additional 30% drawdown from present price levels.

Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows highlighted this vulnerability on social platforms, noting that selling pressure emerges above $1,700 and suppresses upward movement. According to Pillows: “Until Ethereum breaks and reclaims the $1,700 level with strong spot demand, the chances of new lows will go up.” This assessment corresponds with current technical formations.

Examining the price action, ETH is positioned beneath its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, which range from $1,740 to $2,050. The Relative Strength Index stands at approximately 34, indicating deeply oversold conditions.

Should the selloff persist, immediate support exists at $1,611, followed by $1,524, with more substantial backing at $1,404. Dropping below this zone would create a path toward $1,156.

ETH exchange net flows have demonstrated a gradual increase during the past fortnight, indicating more tokens are being transferred to trading platforms — typically interpreted as preparation for selling activity.

Major Institutional Accumulation Continues

Notwithstanding the bearish pressure, significant accumulation is occurring. On June 23, a wallet associated with venture capital powerhouse Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) transferred 25,560 ETH — approximately $42.62 million — out of Binance.

Bitmine, affiliated with Tom Lee, purchased an additional 35,138 ETH valued at $58.65 million on that same date. During the prior week, the company allocated $92 million toward acquiring 52,203 ETH.

Sharplink, ranked as the second-largest Ethereum treasury entity, staked another 509 ETH this week, elevating its cumulative staked position to 22,102 ETH.

Distribution Data Reveals Long-Term Holder Confidence

Data from Santiment reveals that the largest whale addresses — those controlling between 10 million and 100 million ETH — have expanded their holdings to approximately 135.2 million ETH. Medium-tier holders have similarly been accumulating since the end of May.

Addresses holding 10,000–100,000 ETH and 100,000–1 million ETH have decreased their positions, pointing to redistribution dynamics rather than wholesale liquidation.

US-based spot Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows of $82.3 million on Tuesday alone. Throughout June, these products have witnessed $346.39 million in withdrawals, following $540.88 million in outflows during May.

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