Kalshi’s $40B Ambition Puts Polymarket On The Defensive

Kalshi is discussing a new funding round that would value the U.S.-regulated prediction market platform at $40 billion.

Key Points:

Kalshi Valuation

Kalshi is in talks with investors over a fresh capital raise at a valuation of about $40 billion, the Financial Times reported Jun. 24, citing people familiar with the matter.

The round could close as early as the third quarter, though the company declined to comment on the report. The discussions come only weeks after Kalshi disclosed a $1 billion Series F round led by Coatue at a $22 billion valuation.

That prior round included Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Morgan Stanley. It also marked another step in a rapid repricing for the company, which was valued at $5 billion in Oct. 2025 after raising $300 million in a Series D round.

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Prediction Markets

The talks show how quickly investor demand has moved toward prediction markets, where users trade contracts tied to political, economic and cultural events.

Kalshi is also in early discussions with investment banks about a potential initial public offering. Chief Executive Tarek Mansour has confirmed the company is considering an IPO, but said it would not happen this year.

Trading data has strengthened that case. Kalshi has drawn $21.1 billion in volume so far this month, while Polymarket and its U.S. platform had about $9.7 billion combined, according to The Block.

The gap has widened in recent months. Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but it still faces challenges from state regulators seeking regional limits on prediction markets.

On Jun. 24, Kalshi sued Illinois over a bill that would require prediction market platforms to obtain a state license and pay a 0.2% charge on certain digital asset transactions or services for Illinois customers. The current fundraising talks would extend a sharp climb from Oct. 2025, when Kalshi was valued at $5 billion. Its reported valuation moved to $22 billion last month and could now nearly double again if the new round closes.

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