TON Bearish Analysis Feb 1

TON is testing the critical support line by falling to the $1.34 level with over 7% value loss amid the general sell-off wave in the crypto market. The RSI indicator pointing to the oversold region at 26.70, could it trigger a short-term reaction buy, or will the downtrend continue? In this analysis, we draw a clear picture with multi-timeframe alignments and momentum signals.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

TON is trading at the $1.34 level with a sharp 7.02% drop in the last 24 hours. While the daily range is forming in the $1.25-1.44 band, trading volume has declined to $112.24 million, indicating intensified selling pressure. The overall trend is clearly downward; the price continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.54), and the Supertrend indicator is drawing a resistance line around $1.58. Despite no significant news flow in the market, the general flight to safety led by Bitcoin appears to have triggered this decline in altcoins.

In recent weeks, TON entered a correction process following the hype brought by Telegram integration. The asset, which has lost over 30% since early December, is attracting investors’ attention as it approaches the strong $1.25 support zone. Although the decrease in volume indicates that panic selling is slowing down, it is clear that new buyers are adopting a wait-and-see strategy before entering. In this context, current levels may offer strategic opportunities for traders following TON spot analyses.

Although the general market sentiment is negative, TON’s ecosystem developments preserve its long-term potential. However, in the short term, the dominance of the downtrend continues, and it seems difficult for the price to give a recovery signal without closing above $1.40.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The most critical support level stands out at $1.2500 (strength score: 75/100); this zone overlaps with the recent low points on the daily chart and forms a strong base in multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence. If the price dips here, 6 out of a total of 11 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes could come into play as support. The lower level at $1.3209 (61/100) could serve as an intermediate station for short-term reaction buys, but a break here would accelerate towards $1.25.

MTF analysis shows 2 supports on 1D, 2 on 3D, and 2 on 1W. This confluence increases the psychological and technical importance of $1.25; historically, more than 50% rebounds have been observed here. Traders should use this zone in their stop-loss strategies.

Resistance Barriers

The first near-term resistance is positioned at $1.3515 (75/100); this is near the 24-hour high and close to EMA20. If broken, $1.4010 (69/100) and $1.4893 (67/100) come into play. These resistances are supported by 3 on 1D, 1 on 3D, and 2 on 1W strong barriers, bringing the total MTF confluence to 11 levels.

The $1.58 indicated by Supertrend should be watched as the main resistance cluster. Volume increase is necessary for the price to overcome these barriers; otherwise, the downtrend continues.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) at 26.70 points to the oversold region, offering potential for a short-term rebound. According to historical data, TON’s RSI at these levels has experienced 3-5 day recoveries with 40% probability. However, the MACD histogram is widening in the negative zone, confirming bearish momentum; the gap between the signal line and MACD is increasing and continues to dip below the zero line.

The EMA structure is completely bearish: Price is below EMA20 ($1.54), EMA50, and EMA200. Short-term trend strength is weak, but divergence formation can be observed with oversold RSI. While Supertrend gives a bearish signal, selling pressure dominates the volume profile. Overall trend strength is over 70% in the downward direction; for recovery, RSI needs to rise above 40 and MACD positive crossover is required.

Momentum divergence across multiple timeframes is noteworthy: 1W RSI is neutral, but 1D is oversold. This could be a warning before a trend change, but confirmation should be awaited.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

Bullish target $1.8163 (score:27) appears low probability, while bearish target $0.7896 (22) is aligned with the trend. Risk/reward ratio from current levels is over 1:2 in the bearish scenario; if $1.25 support breaks, downside potential is high. Conversely, if $1.35 resistance is surpassed, short-term long positions can be considered, but overall risk is high.

Positive scenario: Reaction to $1.40 with RSI divergence, followed by leveraged opportunities for TON futures. Negative scenario: Test below $1.25 if BTC sell-offs deepen. Outlook: Downtrend dominant, wait for support hold; volatility high, keep position sizes limited. DYOR and risk management are essential.

Market makers’ behaviors and liquidity pools should also be monitored; do not expect big moves without volume increase.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON exhibits high correlation with Bitcoin (%0.85+), directly affected by BTC’s downtrend. As BTC weakens with a 6.64% drop from $78,416, Supertrend’s bearish signal increases selling pressure in altcoins. BTC’s main supports are $78,507, $75,760, and $64,655; if these levels hold, TON gets a chance to breathe, relief may come if $80,357 resistance is surpassed.

BTC resistances $80,357, $83,160, and $86,776; if it cannot recover here, TON could dip below $1.25. Dominance increase crushes altcoins; BTC stabilization would be a bullish trigger for TON. Follow Bitcoin spot analysis.