Monero’s Price Rally Is Starting to Look Like Silver’s Historic Breakout, Top Trader Finds

The rally marked a decisive breakout for XMR after months of consolidation, placing the token back on the radar of both technical traders and macro-focused crypto investors.

The move accelerated in early January after Monero cleared a long-standing resistance zone that had capped price action since late 2021. Once that barrier gave way, buying pressure expanded quickly, driving price vertically into new cycle highs. The push above $595 represented a fresh all-time high on several spot venues before short-term profit-taking set in.

Breakout structure points to larger trend shift

From a market structure perspective, Monero’s rally did not emerge from a low-liquidity spike. Instead, it followed a multi-month basing pattern that resembles a classic cup-and-handle formation on higher timeframes. December’s breakout confirmed the pattern, triggering follow-through buying that has so far held above former resistance levels.

Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt highlighted the broader setup by comparing Monero’s long-term structure to historical commodity breakouts, particularly silver. His comparison suggests that extended periods of compression can precede explosive upside once price escapes a rising cap, a framework that appears to align with XMR’s recent behavior.

Privacy narrative adds fuel to the rally

Beyond technicals, renewed attention on privacy coins has played a role. Ongoing regulatory pressure and delistings affecting Zcash-related markets appear to have redirected liquidity toward Monero, which remains the most liquid and widely used privacy-focused cryptocurrency. That shift coincided with a sharp rise in spot volume during the breakout phase, reinforcing the strength of the move.

Despite the pullback from the highs, Monero has so far avoided a deeper retracement. Price remains well above its December breakout zone, suggesting the market is digesting gains rather than reversing trend.

Indicators show strong momentum, but overheating risk

On the 4-hour chart, momentum indicators reflect the intensity of the move. RSI pushed deep into overbought territory near 80 at the peak, signaling short-term exhaustion. At the same time, MACD expanded aggressively into positive territory, confirming strong bullish momentum but also hinting that upside may slow without a consolidation phase.

If price continues to hold above former resistance, analysts are watching the $640 region as a potential upside extension for the current leg. A failure to stabilize, however, could open the door to a broader pullback toward the mid-$520s, where prior demand emerged.

For now, Monero’s breakout has shifted the broader narrative. After years of relative stagnation, XMR is once again behaving like a trend asset rather than a range-bound altcoin.

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