UK inflation falls sharply in November, clearing path for possible rate cut

The UK’s inflation rate cooled more sharply than expected in November, strengthening the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its final policy meeting of the year on Thursday.

The data adds to mounting evidence that price pressures are easing while the broader economy shows signs of slowing momentum.

Consumer prices rose 3.2% in the twelve months to November, down from 3.6% in October and below the 3.5% forecast by economists polled by Reuters, according to figures released Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics.

It marked the lowest inflation rate since March and represented a second consecutive monthly decline.

Food prices drive inflation lower

The fall in headline inflation was largely driven by easing food prices, which typically rise in the run-up to Christmas.

ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said prices fell for items such as cakes, biscuits, and breakfast cereals, helping to pull the overall rate lower.

“Tobacco prices also helped pull the rate down, with prices easing slightly this month after a large rise a year ago,” Fitzner said in comments posted on X. “The fall in the price of women’s clothing was another downward driver.”

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also eased to 3.2% from 3.4% in October, suggesting broader price pressures are cooling.

Services inflation, a key gauge watched closely by policymakers as a measure of domestic cost pressures, edged down to 4.4%, slightly below the Bank of England’s forecast of 4.5%.

While factory gate price growth slowed, Fitzner noted that the annual cost of raw materials for businesses continued to rise, indicating that some cost pressures remain within supply chains.

Rate cut expectations rise ahead of BOE meeting

The inflation figures come a day after data showed the UK unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% in the three months through October, its highest level in nearly five years.

Combined with weak growth data, the cooling inflation print has increased expectations that the Bank of England will resume cutting interest rates.

Economists widely expect the central bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee to vote for a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% at Thursday’s meeting, potentially by a narrow 5-4 margin.

Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to play a pivotal role in the decision.

“These figures, alongside the recent deluge of downbeat data, mean that an interest rate cut tomorrow looks certain,” said Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW, in a CNBC report.

He added that easing food prices and a loosening labor market should help keep inflation on a downward path.

The pound weakened following the data release, falling as much as 0.6% to $1.3342, as markets priced in a higher likelihood of near-term rate cuts.

Economy shows signs of strain

Despite the easing inflation backdrop, the U.K. economy continues to struggle.

Official data show economic growth of just 0.1% in the third quarter, while figures released last week indicated the economy contracted for a second straight month in October.

Private sector wage growth has also slowed, falling below 4% for the first time since 2020, further signaling reduced inflationary pressure from the labor market.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the drop in inflation but cautioned that challenges remain.

“I know families across Britain who are worried about the cost of living will welcome this fall in inflation. But there is more to do,” she said.

As policymakers prepare for Thursday’s decision, the November inflation data provides the Bank of England with a clearer picture of easing price pressures, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs may soon begin to fall again.

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