Iran record a score draw in LA – and could bag another in Geneva

On Monday in the Los Angeles suburb of Inglewood, Iran twice came from behind to draw 2-2 with New Zealand in their first game of the World Cup.

Team Melli, which is in Group G with Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, has been forced to base itself in Mexico – where the players have reportedly received a warm welcome in Tijuana. The squad and coaches are only allowed into the US 24 hours before each game.

In LA, the team played in front of thousands of Iranian-Americans, many of them waving the flag of the pre-revolutionary state. But government officials back home in Tehran will nonetheless be relieved. This time, unlike four years ago, the players sang the national anthem. Nor have there (yet) been any defections.

The team will be disappointed with the draw. Perhaps the players had other things on their minds. On Friday a memorandum of understanding ending more than three months of conflict between the US and Iran is due to be signed in Geneva.

As adumbrated by Frank Kane and John Crowley, there is a lot to negotiate. The 14-point MoU, published by the semi-official Mehr news agency, is so vague that it reads like a wishlist designed to bring the two sides together to talk.

The terms and extent of nuclear enrichment are left open, although Iran commits not to develop nuclear weapons. The unfreezing of funds features in Iranian demands, as does the immediate lifting of sanctions – but with little by way of a quid pro quo.

For us here in the Gulf, the “arrangements“, if any, that Iran will be able to impose on the Strait of Hormuz will be critical, but are not addressed. Israel has said it will not be bound by the memorandum’s provisions on Lebanon. So, scepticism abounds.

However, judging from the Fars and Tasnim news agencies and despite hardliners’ loud – perhaps hysterical – complaints that the US is acting in bad faith, regime leaders are embracing the prospect of peace. They may have little choice given the parlous state of the Iranian economy.

Me? I am watching the oil price. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures are trading at $78.80 a barrel. The trend has been downward not just since the MoU was announced at the weekend, but since mid-May.

That says something is going on. More specifically, something is getting through. Donald Trump claimed last week on social media that more than 100 million barrels of oil and “more than 200” commercial ships had successfully crosseed the Strait of Hormuz.

Although a gallon of gasoline remains above $4 in the US and the effects of spiking jet fuel prices are real, the performance of oil during this conflict is one for the academics and the shipping analysts. In the 100-plus days of confrontation, the closing price for Brent crude has not topped $120 a barrel – confounding nearly every prediction.

True, the release of reserves by China, the US and European states have played a substantial part in alleviating the worst effects of the crisis. But prices do not lie and they speak of a settlement. Something like a draw.

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