Why Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin on US bank balance sheets is coming but not yet

Morgan Stanley head of digital asset strategy Amy Oldenburg said at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas that Bitcoin on US bank balance sheets is “not totally out of the question,” citing 16 months of regulatory progress while warning that Basel capital rules and Fed guidance still stand in the way.

Morgan Stanley’s Amy Oldenburg said at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference on May 3 that direct Bitcoin holdings are not imminent but regulatory progress has made the scenario more plausible. “I think if we continue to see the progress that we’ve made over the last 16 months or so in regulatory, that that’s something that you may see going forward. It’s not totally out of the question,” she said.

CoinCentral reported that Oldenburg identified two conditions: the Basel Committee must revise its 1,250% risk-weight for Bitcoin, and the Federal Reserve must provide examiners a clear framework for Bitcoin exposure.

The Basel Committee said in February 2026 it had expedited a targeted review of its crypto standards.

As crypto.news reported, Morgan Stanley launched MSBT on April 8 as the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major US commercial bank, with Coinbase Custody and BNY Mellon serving as dual custodians.

As crypto.news documented, MSBT attracted $103 million in net inflows within eight days of launch, with 80% of exposure coming through self-directed channels and zero advisor involvement. Oldenburg said the slow advisor adoption reflects an education gap the bank is now addressing through internal training programs.

As crypto.news tracked, Morgan Stanley is pursuing an OCC digital trust charter for direct crypto custody and spot trading, and has filed separately for Ethereum and Solana trusts, with retail crypto trading on E*Trade targeted for the first half of 2026.